THE GUNS OF AUTUMN?: AGE DIFFERENCES IN SUPPORT FOR INCOME TRANSFERS TO THE YOUNG AND OLD

Data from the 1973 and 1986 General Social Surveys are usedto test the hypothesis that elderly individuals favor publicspending patterns that support their own interests and not thoseof children. Support for educational spending and welfare bythe elderly is found to be less than within other age groups.Age patterns of support for Social Security spending are mixed.Responses to a series of "vignettes" depicting low-income familieswith young children and elderly women living alone showed thatelderly respondents are slightly more supportive than averageof transfers to low-income families with children and less supportivethan average of transfers to low-income members of their owncohort. Elderly respondents appear more generous once theirmore frugal notions of what it takes to "get along" are takeninto account. Support for transfers to young families is moreclosely related to income than age and is not consistent withthe hypothesis that the elderly support programs that benefitthemselves at the expense of programs that benefit the young.     

Black and white population change in small American suburbs since World War II: regional differences

"This study examines the relationship between black population concentration (% black), black population change and white population change for small American suburbs for the 1950-1980 period. Linear, tipping point (curvilinear) and interaction models of racial transition are evaluated for each decade by region (South and non-South), controlling for several other suburban characteristics (age, annexation and distance to the Central Business District) which may affect both black and white population change. The analyses show that racial transition in suburbs involves the parallel development of white and black populations with mainly weak and complex causal linkages which are sensitive to broader suburbanization patterns."     

Parents and patients: Members of an interdisciplinary team on an adolescent inpatient unit

In a six-year study on a locked psychiatric hospital unit for adolescents, first patients and then their families became integrated into the interdisciplinary treatment team. The results were universally beneficial. After initial resistance and some fine tuning of their skills, the staff became strong supporters of the program. Parents, no longer one down, developed a close working relationship with the therapists and milieu staff. Treatment planning and implementation was enriched by the interaction and dissension was minimized. Most important of all, the adolescents improved more rapidly and hospital stays were significantly shortened.     

Compulsive gambling and the medical model

The medical model as a conceptual and operative approach to compulsive gambling is discussed. The terms medical model and disease are defined and the practical implications of their application to compulsive gambling are explored. Special attention is given to the addictive disease concept. Finally, a variety of objections to the medical model are described, but it is concluded that the many individual and social advantages of the medical model make it the preferred conceptualization at our present state of knowledge.     

Evidence for a common dissociative-like reaction among addicts

A questionnaire was designed to test selected aspects of the author's General Theory of Addictions (Jacobs, 1982). Data were collected from groups of compulsive gamblers, alcoholics, and compulsive overeaters, and compared with the responses to the same questionnaire obtained from normative samples of adolescents and adults. The more inclusive term, compulsive gambler, has been used throughout, since the sample of gamblers in this study included an inpatient subgroup who had been diagnosed as pathological gamblers, as well as a subgroup of Gamblers Anonymous members who had not been clinically evaluated. Findings support the author's theoretical position that, when indulging, different kinds of addicts will tend to share a common set of dissociativelike experiences that differentiate them from nonaddicts. This has been termed a state of altered identity.     

BELIEVABILITY AND THE PRESS

This study looks at believability ratings assigned to 39 newsorganizations and news personalities by a nationally representativesample of 2,104 adult men and women. The data provide threemajor findings about the believability of the American press,all of which, at least in part, tend to be at odds with muchof the conventional wisdom and some of the contemporary researchdealing with the credibility of the news media. First, the overwhelmingmajority of the general public believes most of what it hears,sees, or reads in the nation's press. Second, perceived "believability"of the news media is not closely related to those politicaland demographic variables that typically divide public opinionin America. Third, the public does "group" the news media interms of "believability," but the groupings do not equate withthe dichotomy usually drawn between television and print journalism.     

On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."     

On a conjecture of Kakosyan,Klebanov and Melamed

Suppose X₁, X₂, ..., X_m is a random sample of size m from a population with probability density function f(x), x>0 and let X_1,m<...m,m be the corresponding order statistics. We assume m as an integer valued random variable with P(m=k)=p(1?p)^k?1, k=1, 2, ... and 0 and n X_1,n for fixed n characterizes the exponential distribution. In this paper we prove that under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the identical distribution of and (n?r+1) (X_r,n?X_r?1,n) for some fixed r and n with 1≤r≤n, n≥2, X_0,n=0, characterizes the exponential distribution. Under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the conjecture of Kakosyan, Klebanov and Melamed follows from the above result with r=1.     

Two point priors and Γ-minimax estimating in families of uniform distributions

It is shown that when a parameter lying in a sufficiently small interval is to be estimated in a family of uniform distributions, a two point prior is least favourable under squared error loss. The unique Bayes estimator with respect to this prior is minimax. The Γ-minimax estimator is derived for sets Γ of priors consisting of all priors that give fixed probabilities to two specified subintervals of the parameter space if a two point prior is least favourable in Γ.     

The timing of maternity in the Netherlands

In this paper the timing of maternity is estimated by a hazard model. The novel aspect of this paper is that it is shown that wages and total household labor income have a significant effect on the timing of maternity. Both the wage rate of the woman and the wage rate of the husband have a negative effect on the timing of maternity. Total household labor income increases the probability of having a child at an earlier age. Calculated elasticities show that the timing of maternity is relatively elastic with respect to wage rates. However, the elasticities of the decision whether or not to have children altogether are much smaller. Women working in the labor market delay the timing of maternity compared to non-participating women. Attending school has the same effect. Until the age of 28 the maternity hazard increases with age, after that it decreases.We benefited from comments on previous drafts by Siv Gustafsson, Joop Hartog, Peter Kee, Herriette Maassen van den Brink, Eddie Mekkelholt, Joop Odink, Hessel Oosterbeek, Hans van Ophem, Gusta Renes, Andre Voskamp, two anonymous referees, and the Managing Editor of this Journal. This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the third annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Paris, June 1989. The usual disclaimer applies.