Preventive Health Behavior and Adaptive Accuracy of Risk Perceptions

This study examined the relation between health behavior and risk perceptions in the context of an acute livestock epidemic. Participants in a longitudinal web-based survey ( N = 195) were asked to report their meat consumption and their perceived risk in relation to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and other related livestock diseases. Cross-sectional analyses at both measurement points (T1 and T2) showed that participants with low levels of preventive nutrition (high meat consumption) felt more at risk for BSE-related diseases than those reporting comparable higher levels of preventive behavior (low meat consumption), indicating relative accuracy. These results suggest that people recognize when their behavior is risky. More importantly, perceived risk also showed adaptive accuracy from a change perspective: increases in preventive nutrition from T1 to T2 were significantly associated with decreases in perceived risk between T1 and T2. Possible foundations and implications of an adaptive accuracy of risk perceptions are discussed.     

Actuarial risk assessment in child protective services: Construction methodology and performance criteria

Purpose

To prevent the recurrence of child maltreatment, actuarial risk assessment can help child protective services (CPS) workers make more accurate and consistent decisions. However, there are few published articles describing construction methodologies and performance criteria to evaluate how well actuarial risk assessments perform in CPS. This article describes methodology to construct and revise an actuarial risk assessment, reviews criteria to evaluate the performance of actuarial tools, and applies a methodology and performance criteria in one state.

Methods

The sample included 6832 families who were followed for two years to determine whether they were re-reported and re-substantiated for maltreatment.

Results

Both the adopted and the revised tools had adequate separation and good predictive accuracy for all families and for the state's three largest ethnic/racial groups (White, Latino, and African American). The adopted tool classified relatively few families in the low-risk category; the revised tool distributed families across risk categories.

Conclusions

The revised tool classified more families as low-risk, allowing CPS to allocate more resources to higher-risk families, but at the cost of more false negatives.     

The Impact of Women's Employment on Second and Third Births in Modern Sweden

This paper demonstrates some striking and sometimes initially surprising differentials and developments in Swedish fertility patterns during the 1960s and 1970s. The surprise will often have been due to untenable preconceptions. For instance, we question the assumption that the opportunity cost of a second or third birth is necessarily higher for Swedish women with a better education, or otherwise with a firm position in the labour force than for others. In our opinion, the situation may plausibly be the reverse. Also, total time in the labour force has turned out not to be the useful predictor of demographic behaviour that economists seem to have expected. A more adequate summary of a woman's employment history should capture more directly her role orientation and any signals of changes in childbearing and employment plans. Her early demographic history seems to contain similar information for the analyst, manifested here as a strong influence of age at first birth and first inter-birth interval on third-birth intensities. All in all, a woman's personal values and life course strategy (whether deliberately chosen or pressed upon her by accident and circumstances) appear as the strongest determinants of her childbearing behaviour, while income effects and opportunity cost differentials are valuable concepts which provide an understanding of more marginal changes and marginal differences. Perhaps a main outcome of the many-faceted developments over the last quarter-century has been the emerging dominance of the two-child norm and the ability to live up to it, while more directly measurable influences have been reduced to mediators.     

The body in medical imaging between reality and construction

Medical imaging has provided insight into the living body that were not possible beforehand. With these methods a revolution in medical diagnosis and biomedical research has begun. Problematic aspects on the other hand are arising from the highly constructive properties of image production, which use complicated physical and physiological effects. Images are established via highly complicated combinations of technology and contingently chosen mathematical and algorithmic solutions. In addition, image construction follows properties of the human visual and cognitive system to allow for the discrimination of the desired categories. It is no wonder that the visualizations referring to the body also show effects which have no physiological correlation within the body. Still such images are often used as if they were one-to-one correlates of the body. This has impacts, e.g. for their use as standardizing instances, resulting in new definitions of the normed healthy body, sickness or pathologies, maleness and femaleness and in determinisms as opposed to the brain’s plasticity and variability, both in time and space, inter- as well as intra-individually.     

Perceived family history of problem gambling and scores on SOGS

A sample of 93 veterans (92.4% males), with a median age of 41, (Mean=43.5) attending clinics for problem drinking, drug abuse and other mental disorders was screened for problems associated with the diagnosis of pathological gambling. The diagnostic instrument employed was the South Oaks Gambling Screen developed by Lesieur and Blume. The data replicate earlier findings indicating a link between parental problem gambling and pathological gambling. The results extended this association to include grandparents thus firming the familial relationship. Several epidemiological measures were defined and illustrated. These included relative risk, the odds ratio, attributable risk percent and population attributable risk percent. The data were consistent with previous research that substance abusers are about six times as likely to be addicted to gambling as the general population.This research was supported in part by a grant from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.     

What is the effective sample size of a spatial point process?

Point process models are a natural approach for modelling data that arise as point events. In the case of Poisson counts, these may be fitted easily as a weighted Poisson regression. Point processes lack the notion of sample size. This is problematic for model selection, because various classical criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) are a function of the sample size, n, and are derived in an asymptotic framework where n tends to infinity. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic result for Poisson point process models in which the observed number of point events, m, plays the role that sample size does in the classical regression context. Following from this result, we derive a version of BIC for point process models, and when fitted via penalised likelihood, conditions for the LASSO penalty that ensure consistency in estimation and the oracle property. We discuss challenges extending these results to the wider class of Gibbs models, of which the Poisson point process model is a special case.     

Nachhaltige Stressreduktion durch Introvision: theoretische Grundlagen und empirische Ergebnisse

The article deals with a re-analysis of two studies in which the pedagogical-psychological counseling and coaching method Introvision as method of reducing somatic symptoms (tinnitus, neck strain) and in particular the so resulting stress was tested. It based on the transactional stress model and the theory of mental Introferenz is a connection between consciousness and the emergence of conflicts of stress, as well as its specific somatic effects is produced. Subsequently, the data of both experimental and control groups are compared and brought into relation. In particular, three aspects are considered: the extent of exposure (as measured by the GSI and the TICS) between the study groups (tinnitus, neck strain), the development of the different study groups (tinnitus, neck strain) over time (pre, post, follow-up ) and possible similarities. On the one hand it can be said that comparable on a theoretical level in coping with stressful events in the sense of conflict avoidance strategies, the Introvision is however used as a conflict resolution strategy, and thus provides a means for the alternative stress management. The study groups differed in their baseline levels of both the normal population and from each other (in some cases significantly). Both study groups improved significantly compared to the control group, and have a similar profile. Especially in the initial values for the stress they are different, which suggests that tinnitus sufferers use different coping strategies (dramatized) (minimize) as concerned with neck tension. The Introvision proves consulting and coaching method for reducing the burden of somatic complaints and stress, as well as prevention methods, ie the further deterioration of symptoms (compared to the control group), one advancing chronicity process works effectively.