Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

Governance in Public-Private Community Health Partnerships: A Survey of the Community Care Network SM Demonstration Sites

This review of the governance practices of twenty-five public-private partnerships involved in addressing a broad range of community health needs shows that governance in public-private community partnerships departs significantly from traditional notions of institutional governance. Governance structures and degrees of progress toward governance goals vary widely and appear to be systematically related to the organization, composition, location, and activity of each partnership.     

Personalization of Mail Surveys for General Public and Populations with a Group Identity: Results from Nine Studies*

Abstract The effect of personalization on mail survey response rates was examined in nine studies that included 17 comparisons under several research conditions. A study of this variable across multiple experiments in five agricultural experiment stations was undertaken because of conflicting results from previous research and from concern that the effectiveness of personalization might have decreased over time. Results show that, while response to general public surveys appeared to increase modestly across all treatment groups, there was no positive effect for populations in which a group identity (e.g., Dear Oregon Gardner or Dear ATV Owner) is employed to address respondents in cover letters. Personalization appears to remain useful for improving response in surveys of the general public.     

Providing mental health services to older people living in rural communities

Rural dwelling elders who experience mental health problems often have difficulty finding help since rural communities often lack adequate mental health service providers. This paper reports on the initial phase of a 5-year, interdisciplinary clinical research study that is testing the effectiveness of providing a home delivered, therapeutic psychosocial intervention, aimed at improving the emotional wellbeing and the quality of life of medically frail elders who live in rural communities. In the early phases of this study, the clinical research team encountered a number of interesting and often unanticipated challenges as it attempted to recruit study participants and provide services to them. In this article, we examine these challenges and share what we have learned so far about providing mental health services to elderly persons living in rural environments.     

Smoker-Nonsmoker Conflict: Using a Social Psychological Framework to Understand aCurrent Social Controversy

Over the past two decades, state and federal restrictions of public smoking have become increasingly common. The resulting controversy has generally focused on the research evidence regarding the physiological effects of second-hand smoke while ignoring relevant psychological aspects of smoker-nonsmoker conflict. In this article I review the literature on the psychological consequences of smoker-nonsmoker interaction, interpreting these results from the framework of social psychological research on inter-group conflict. From this review I conclude that: a) smoker-nonsmoker conflict shares many characteristics of other ingroup-outgroup interactions; b) both groups are served by the legislated separation of these groups; and c) such separation can be successfully accomplished only when close attention is paid to subtle environmental cues. Finally, theoretical benefits of studying smoker-nonsmoker conflict from a social psychological perspective are discussed.     

Urbanization,migration, and development

This paper looks at the effect of the new international division of labor on urbanization in developing countries. Previous histories, particularly of insertion into the world economy, affect responses to the new order. Also, previous phases in the organization of the world economy, particularly those associated with import-substitution industrialization, have shaped the urban systems and urban social organization of developing countries in particular ways. By comparing the tendencies of the import-substituting period with those of the new international division of labor, contrasts are brought out in the patterns of migration, the shape of the urban system, labor markets, and in urban social organization. The overall change is likely to be an increasing divergence, both within developing countries and between them, in their urban organization.     

A Model of Choice for Public Policy

Punctuated equilibrium is supposed to be a viable alternativeto incrementalism, and, indeed, the authors of the model havesometimes made such claims. But punctuated equilibrium was developedto explain change in policy subsystems and does not serve asa complete model of policy choice in the same way that incrementalismhas served. This article develops a full-blown and viable modelof choice for public policy based on disproportionate informationprocessing. Its dynamics are based in the allocation of politicalattention to policy topics and the manner in which politicalsystems process information. The model leads directly to outcomesthat are consistent with punctuated equilibrium and are notgenerally consistent with incrementalism. Incrementalism, however,may be deduced from the model as a special case. The model isbest tested using stochastic process approaches. Incrementalismlogically must yield a normal distribution of outcomes, butdisproportionate information processing yields leptokurtic outcomes.Adding institutional constraints only makes the stochastic processimplications more severe. To support our arguments, we presentboth static and dynamic simulations of these processes. We alsoshow that these simulations are consistent with observationsof U.S. government budgets.