Following a moving target—Monte Carlo inference for dynamic Bayesian models

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is a numerically intensive simulation technique which has greatly improved the practicality of Bayesian inference and prediction. However, MCMC sampling is too slow to be of practical use in problems involving a large number of posterior (target) distributions, as in dynamic modelling and predictive model selection. Alternative simulation techniques for tracking moving target distributions, known as particle filters, which combine importance sampling, importance resampling and MCMC sampling, tend to suffer from a progressive degeneration as the target sequence evolves. We propose a new technique, based on these same simulation methodologies, which does not suffer from this progressive degeneration.     

Environmental Sustainability and Tourism in European Policy-making

The paper analyses decision-making in the field of European environmental regulation and examines the implications for tourist policy. It is argued that European Union (EU) environmental policy is influenced by three factors: (1) the EU bureaucracy is interested in expanding its influence and power vis-à-vis national bureaucracies and polities; (2) Northern European countries have selectively recruited regulators with environmentally sympathetic ideologies; and (3) a pro-environmental attitude contributes to the societal legitimation of business. These considerations give a unique character to environmental policy-making, which over time has tended to spill over to thematically connected areas, including to tourism policy.     

Measures of non-exchangeability for bivariate random vectors

We introduce a set of axioms for measures of non-exchangeability for bivariate vectors of continuous and identically distributed random variables and give some examples together with possible applications in statistical models based on the copula function.     

Family reunification efforts that work: A three year follow-up study of children in residential treatment

A three year follow-up study of children discharged from a residential treatment program was conducted to determine long-term family reunification rates. The primary interest was a comparison of families which had received different types of parent involvement programs during their child's placement. Results indicated that families which had received a combination of experiential and didactic involvement programs reunified at a significantly higher rate than did those receiving either program separately. Results are discussed with regard to the difficulties of achieving successful reunification for families with children in placement.     

The impact of knowledge management and strategy configuration coherence on SME performance

According to recent literature, effective knowledge management should be coherent and based on the firm’s strategy. Prior empirical research, in contrast, tries to evaluate the impact of knowledge management initiatives directly on performance but finds inconsistent results and not allows the understanding of knowledge management contribution to competitive advantage generation. In this study we aim to investigate the impact of knowledge management and strategy configuration coherence on SMEs innovation and organizational performance through a quantitative analysis carried out on a sample of 60 manufacturing SMEs in northeast Italy. Our findings reveal that a significant coherence exists between knowledge management and strategy configurations. Most of the SMEs with a prospector and defender strategy adopt, in turn, an aggressive and conservative knowledge management. Moreover, we find that such coherence has a significant impact on the overall performance. This is particularly interesting since it suggests that the inconsistency in the results of prior studies on the impact of knowledge management on performance (Kalling in J Knowl Manag 7(3):67–81; 2003) may be due to the lack of consideration of knowledge management and strategy configuration coherence.     

Interregional migration and labor market imbalances

This paper investigates the effects of internal migration in developed countries on widening wage inequality and high unemployment, and it addresses the geographical dimension of both problems. A two-region dynamic model is developed, which accounts for the skill composition of recent internal migration flows; it also innovates on the existing literature on migration by introducing capital-skill complementarity in the production function. The main conclusion is that migration can actually aggravate labor market imbalances. In a competitive set-up, migration temporarily amplifies the geographical dispersion of unskilled workers wages and raises the average wage premium of the economy. When wage rigidities are introduced, labor mobility increases regional dispersion of unskilled workers employment. In the short-run it may even reduce the total employment of the economy.A previous version of this paper circulated with the title Migration Flows and Interregional Labor Market Disequilibrium. I would like to thank Samuel Bentolila, Federico Biagi, Fabio Canova, Alessandra Casarico, Rosa Maria Fernandez, Juan Francisco Jimeno, Adriana Kugler, Javier Ortega, Ferdinando Regalia, Gilles Saint-Paul, Etsuro Shioji, Marco Vannini, two anonymous referees, participants at UPF Macro Workshop, 1997 ASSET meeting, Marseille, 1998 ESPE Annual Conference, Amsterdam, and 1999 Winter Meeting of the European Econometric Society, Rotterdam, for helpful comments and suggestions; Alix Beith for her friendly help. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Allessandro Cigno.     

Food Expensiveness in Scotland's Remote Areas: An Analysis of Household Food Purchases☆

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether consumers in Scotland's remote areas suffer from food prices that are higher than the average national prices (i.e., whether a “remoteness premium” exists). The question has been raised by several organizations in those communities looking at the high prices in local stores. This paper provides a new perspective using actual purchasing prices of a sample of 5,252 households in Scotland for 2017 and 2018. In this way, households' ability to shop for lower prices is considered, unlike in previous studies. An expensiveness index was computed to measure the expensiveness of food at household level and control for differences in quality. It showed that consumers in remote areas pay a small premium (0.3 to 0.4 percent) with respect to average prices, which is statistically significant but economically not relevant. To understand the effect of several factors, AHEI was regressed on a number of explanatory variables including local area characteristics and household demographics and consumers' shopping strategy. The results were used to simulate three hypothetical scenarios related to impact of changes in the population's age, access to discount stores, and social deprivation on food expensiveness.     

How effective are community-based disaster reduction strategies? Evidence from the largest-scale program so far

Strategies of community-based disaster risk reduction have been advocated for more than 2 decades. However, we still lack in-depth quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of such strategies. Our research is based on a national experiment in this domain: the “Comprehensive Disaster Reduction Demonstration Community” project, a governmental program running in China since 2007. Information on more than 11,000 demonstration communities was collected. Combined with the local disaster information and socioeconomic conditions, the spatiotemporal characteristics of these communities over 12 years and their differences in performance by region and income group were analyzed. We performed an attribution analysis for disaster risk reduction effectiveness. This is the first time a series of quantitative evaluation methods have been applied to verify the effectiveness of a large-scale community-based disaster risk reduction project, both from the perspective of demonstrative effects and loss reduction benefits. Here, we find that the project is obviously effective from these two perspectives, and the disaster loss reduction effectiveness illustrates clear regional differences, where the regional economic level and hazard severity act as important drivers. Significant differences of urban-rural and income call for matching fortification measures, and the dynamic management of demonstration community size is required, since the loss reduction benefit converges when the penetration rate of the demonstration community reaches approximately 4% in a province. These and further results provide diverse implications for community-based disaster risk reduction policies and practices.     

Hierarchical disjoint principal component analysis

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Dimension reduction, by means of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), is often employed to obtain a reduced set of components preserving the largest possible...