Dynamic generalized linear models with application to environmental epidemiology

Summary. We propose modelling short-term pollutant exposure effects on health by using dynamic generalized linear models. The time series of count data are modelled by a Poisson distribution having mean driven by a latent Markov process; estimation is performed by the extended Kalman filter and smoother. This modelling strategy allows us to take into account possible overdispersion and time-varying effects of the covariates. These ideas are illustrated by reanalysing data on the relationship between daily non-accidental deaths and air pollution in the city of Birmingham, Alabama.     

Illegal Immigrants and the Informal Economy in Italy

ABSTRACT: The present work is divided into three parts. In the first part the (limited) empirical data relevant to the phenomenon in question is presented, that is, the growing illegality of Italian immigration and the illegal work that immigrants are destined to take up. Obviously the illegality of their presence and the íllicitness of the work are, by definition, phenomena which are difficult to quantify. Some estimates, albeit limited to certain regions, are nevertheless available and the picture that emerges is coherent with the present hypothesis. The hypothesis is then explained at a theoretical level, in the second part, where a simple model of general equilibrium is presented, referring to a two-sector economy with a single good. The model has the sole aim of illustrating the plausible characteristics of an economy characterised by the phenomenon that this present paper attempts to clarify. In the third part, to give an example, a simulation is put forward, utilising, in the model, values not incoherent with estimates based on Italy as a whole.     

Cognitive reappraisal and need to belong predict prosociality in Mexican-origin adolescents

This 2-year longitudinal study examined Mexican-origin adolescents’ need to belong and cognitive reappraisal as predictors of multiple forms of prosocial behavior (i.e., general, emotional, and public prosocial behaviors). Prosocial behaviors, which are actions intended to benefit others, are hallmarks of social proficiency in adolescence and are influenced by intrapersonal abilities and motivations that typically develop during adolescence. Yet, few studies of Mexican-origin or other U.S. Latinx youths have examined whether such individual difference characteristics, specifically social motivation and emotion regulation skills, support prosocial behavior. In a sample of 229 Mexican-origin youth (M_age = 17.18 years, SD = .42, 110 girls), need to belong, cognitive reappraisal, and general prosocial behaviors were assessed at ages 17 and 19. Emotional and public forms of prosociality also were assessed at age 19. Cognitive reappraisal was positively associated with concurrent general prosociality at age 17, whereas need to belong was positively associated with concurrent public prosociality at age 19. Moderation analyses revealed that general and emotional types of prosocial behaviors at age 19 were lowest for youth with both lower need to belong and less use of cognitive reappraisal at 19 years. Greater cognitive reappraisal skills and need to belong may reflect distinct motivations for engaging in varying forms of prosocial behavior in late adolescence.     

Moral Development in Adolescence

Themes in the papers in this special issue of the JRA on moral development are identified. We discuss the intersection of moral development research with policy concerns, the distinctive qualities of moral life in adolescence that warrant investigation, the multiple connotations of “moral,” the methods typical of moral development research, and the influences that shape adolescent moral development. Suggestions are made for new methods and new directions in the study of moral development.     

A Cause-of-Death Decomposition of Young Adult Excess Mortality

We propose a method to decompose the young adult mortality hump by cause of death. This method is based on a flexible shape decomposition of mortality rates that separates cause-of-death contributions to the hump from senescent mortality. We apply the method to U.S. males and females from 1959 to 2015. Results show divergence between time trends of hump and observed deaths, both for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The study of the hump shape reveals age, period, and cohort effects, suggesting that it is formed by a complex combination of different forces of biological and socioeconomic nature. Male and female humps share some traits in all-cause shape and trend, but they also differ by their overall magnitude and cause-specific contributions. Notably, among males, the contributions of traffic and other accidents were progressively replaced by those of suicides, homicides, and poisonings; among females, traffic accidents remained the major contributor to the hump.     

A new look at schooling inequalities in Italy and their trends over time

This article examines whether the influence of family background on educational attainment has changed in Italy in the course of the 20th century. For several European countries, recent studies have come to question the widely agreed thesis of persistent schooling inequalities. This work discusses extensively factors that may produce variations of class differentials in academic achievement and in participation rates in the Italian case. The empirical analyses are based on a new dataset and on new modelling techniques that ensure high statistical power to detect trends over time. Yet, the substantive conclusions point to a prevailing stability of class differentials, with a limited equalisation restricted to the agricultural classes in the oldest cohorts.     

The Role of Emotional Reactivity,Self‐regulation,and Puberty in Adolescents' Prosocial Behaviors

This study was designed to examine the roles of emotional reactivity, self‐regulation, and pubertal timing in prosocial behaviors during adolescence. Participants were 850 sixth graders (50 percent female, mean age = 11.03, standard deviation = .17) who were followed up at the age of 15. In hierarchical regression models, measures of emotional reactivity, self‐regulation, pubertal timing, and their interactions were used to predict (concurrently and over time) adolescents' prosocial behaviors in the home and with peers. Overall, the findings provide evidence for pubertal and temperament‐based predictors of prosocial behaviors expressed in different contexts. Self‐regulation was positively related to both forms of prosocial behavior, concurrently and longitudinally. Emotional reactivity showed moderately consistent effects, showing negative concurrent relations to prosocial behavior with peers and negative longitudinal relations (4 years later) to prosocial behavior at home. Some curvilinear effects of temperament on prosocial behaviors were also found. Effects of pubertal timing were found to interact with gender, such that boys who were early maturers showed the highest levels of prosocial behavior at home concurrently. Discussion focuses on the role of temperament‐based mechanisms in the expression of prosocial behaviors in different contexts in adolescence.     

Middle Childhood Feelings Toward Mothers: Predictions From Maternal Directiveness at the Age of Two and Respect for Autonomy Currently

The goals of this study were to examine (1) stability of maternal directiveness during interactions with their children from toddlerhood to late middle childhood, (2) direct and mediated relations between mothers' directiveness when children were two years old, mothers' respect for autonomy and children's positivity and negativity toward their mothers when children were in late middle childhood, and (3) differences in these paths by ethnoracial group. Participants included 876 European‐American, 789 African‐American, and 411 Mexican‐American mothers and their children from the Early Head Start Research and Evaluation Project. Maternal respect for autonomy at Time 2 partially mediated an association between Time 1 directiveness and observed child positivity toward mothers at Time 2. There was also a direct inverse link between Time 1 maternal directiveness and children's observed positivity toward mothers at Time 2. Relations were similar across ethnoracial groups and for boys and girls. The discussion focuses on heterotypic stability in directive parenting and its implications for children's feelings toward their mothers.