Commentary on Mills’ “toward a theory of myth”

In his provocative article on theorizing about myth, Jon Mills kindly cites my own work on the subject. Let me confine my remarks to his comments on me. I now see, thanks to Mills, how confusing some of my statements have perhaps been.     

Assessing and communicating heterogeneity of treatment effects for patient subpopulations: Panel discussion on considerations in design and analysis

Clinical trials are primarily conducted to understand the average effects treatments have on patients. However, patients are heterogeneous in the severity of the condition and in ways that affect what treatment effect they can expect. It is therefore important to understand and characterize how treatment effects vary. The design and analysis of clinical studies play critical roles in evaluating and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. This panel discussed considerations in design and analysis under the recognition that there are heterogeneous treatment effects across subgroups of patients. Panel members discussed many questions including: What is a good estimate of the treatment effect in me, a 65-year-old, bald, Caucasian-American, male patient? What magnitude of heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) is sufficiently large to merit attention? What role can prior evidence about HTE play in confirmatory trial design and analysis? Is there anything described in the 21st Century Cures Act that would benefit from greater attention to HTE? An example of a Bayesian approach addressing multiplicity when testing for treatment effects in subgroups will be provided. We can do more or better at understanding heterogeneous treatment effects and providing the best information on heterogeneous treatment effects.     

The high cost of neglecting children: The need for a preventive policy agenda

Millions of children in the United States suffer from poor care and inadequate services due to neglectful national social policy. More than 13 million children live in poverty and its negative consequences, at great individual and social cost. This paper outlines the need to seriously advocate for a preventive policy approach to child welfare and presents a blueprint for individual and collective political action. The cost-effectiveness and social benefits of preventive policies are demonstrated. Social workers understand the value of prevention in working with children and families, and are needed to advocate on the policy-making level for a preventive policy agenda.     

Envelope Theorems for Arbitrary Choice Sets

The standard envelope theorems apply to choice sets with convex and topological structure, providing sufficient conditions for the value function to be differentiable in a parameter and characterizing its derivative. This paper studies optimization with arbitrary choice sets and shows that the traditional envelope formula holds at any differentiability point of the value function. We also provide conditions for the value function to be, variously, absolutely continuous, left‐ and right‐differentiable, or fully differentiable. These results are applied to mechanism design, convex programming, continuous optimization problems, saddle‐point problems, problems with parameterized constraints, and optimal stopping problems.     

The Mirrlees Approach to Mechanism Design with Renegotiation (with Applications to Hold‐up and Risk Sharing)

The paper studies the implementation problem, first analyzed by Maskin and Moore (1999), in which two agents observe an unverifiable state of nature and may renegotiate inefficient outcomes following play of the mechanism. We develop a first‐order approach to characterizing the set of implementable utility mappings in this problem, paralleling Mirrlees's (1971) first‐order analysis of standard mechanism design problems. We use this characterization to study optimal contracting in hold‐up and risk‐sharing models. In particular, we examine when the contracting parties can optimally restrict attention to simple contracts, such as noncontingent contracts and option contracts (where only one agent sends a message).     

What drives the attentional bias for fearful faces? An eye‐tracking investigation of 7‐month‐old infants’ visual scanning patterns

Seven‐month‐old infants display a robust attentional bias for fearful faces; however, the mechanisms driving this bias remain unclear. The objective of the current study was to replicate the attentional bias for fearful faces and to investigate how infants’ online scanning patterns relate to this preference. Infants’ visual scanning patterns toward fearful and happy faces were captured using eye tracking in a paired‐preference task, specifically exploring if the fear preference is driven by increased attention to particular facial features. Infants allocated increased attention toward the fearful face compared to the happy face overall, thus successfully replicating the attentional bias, and greater attention toward the fearful eyes was associated with a greater magnitude of the fear preference. The current findings suggest that the fearful eyes are a salient facial feature in capturing infants’ attention toward the fearful face and that increased scanning of the fearful eyes may be one mechanism driving the overall fear preference. In addition, scanning patterns, and attention to critical features specifically, are highlighted as a strategy for examining the mechanisms underlying the development of emotion recognition abilities in infancy.     

魔鬼终结者:对两部电影的神话解读

神话所解释的世界很多时候就是社会世界。《终结者》电影讲述了创造神话的故事,其核心是人类作为机器的创造者和控制者,已经被机器本身所代替。现在已经不是资本家、机器使用和其他个人之间的冲突了,而是全人类和全机器之间的冲突。