打造和平女神文化品牌让昭君文化走向世界

昭君文化是三峡地区品位很高的文化资源,其文化内涵丰富,精神影响广泛而深远,值得大力弘扬和进行开发.文章诠释了昭君文化生成的原因,分析了当前深入研究昭君文化的时代背景,指出了昭君文化开发重大的现实意义,认为,开发利用昭君文化是弘扬中华民族优秀文化和促进民族团结及世界和平与发展的需要;开发利用昭君文化,应在境界上予以提升,将昭君作为东方人类的和平女神与西方世界的自由女神呼应和对话,把昭君和平文化品牌推向世界;在开发上应有大手笔的规划,并与旅游产业紧密结合.     

斜腿刚构桥几何布局的优化设计

采用数学规划的方法从静力和动力两方面对斜腿刚构桥的几何布局进行优化设计。静力优化设计的优化目标是截面截面应力平方均值最小，动力优化设计的优化目标是结构自振周期平方和最小。采用了直接搜索法寻优。通过算例可知，这两种优化设计方法均可行，且均为刚性设计。     

The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

体验、解析、会通——张岱年哲学方法论的综合创新

体验、解析、会通的有机统一,是张岱年《天人五论》所建构的哲学方法论。这种方法论排斥直觉法,因而不同于现代新儒家和清华学派的哲学家;同时,它把辩证法看成一般的学术方法而非独立的哲学方法,这又使其不同于当时的新唯物论者。这种方法论是在综合中西哲学方法以及近现代各派哲学方法基础上的一个综合创造。     

论求真务实

求真务实是辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义一以贯之的科学精神,是解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进党的思想路线的核心内容,是党的优良传统和共产党人应该具备的政治品格。     

教学评估对我国高校的引导作用

高校教学工作评估作为一种制度化的逻辑性力量,确保教育内部规律与外部规律在高校运行和发展过程中得到有机融合,使高校作为一种专业教育机构和人的特殊实践活动方式的本质特征得到彰显;引导高校回归教育本质,凸显育人的本体性功能,这将改变长期以来我国高等教育领域教育内部规律得不到尊重、教育本质特征被忽视的状况,给新时期我国高校带来一系列的新变化.     

抗战时期中共执政陕甘宁边区研究述评

抗战时期中共执政陕甘宁边区的成功实践,把陕甘宁边区建设成了抗日民主政治的模范区、新经济生活的模范区、建设先进文化的楷模,为中共全国范围内的执政做了有益的尝试,积累了丰富的经验。学术界对中共执政陕甘宁边区的研究主要涉及民主建政、发展经济、建设新文化、当代意义等方面。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

试论我国物流企业发展战略联盟的必要性

根据现代物流的发展趋势以及我国物流企业的发展现状 ,通过对几种物流企业扩张方式的比较分析 ,得出我国物流企业发展战略联盟的必要性     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.