Perception of Earthquake Risk in Taiwan: Effects of Gender and Past Earthquake Experience

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer‐assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two‐factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, “personal impact,” encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, “controllability,” encompassed a sense of efficacy of self‐protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.     

Supply Chain Management of Fresh Products with Producer Transportation*

This article considers a class of fresh‐product supply chains in which products need to be transported by the upstream producer from a production base to a distant retail market. Due to high perishablility a portion of the products being shipped may decay during transportation, and therefore, become unsaleable. We consider a supply chain consisting of a single producer and a single distributor, and investigate two commonly adopted business models: (i) In the “pull” model, the distributor places an order, then the producer determines the shipping quantity, taking into account potential product decay during transportation, and transports the products to the destination market of the distributor; (ii) In the “push” model, the producer ships a batch of products to a distant wholesale market, and then the distributor purchases and resells to end customers. By considering a price‐sensitive end‐customer demand, we investigate the optimal decisions for supply chain members, including order quantity, shipping quantity, and retail price. Our research shows that both the producer and distributor (and thus the supply chain) will perform better if the pull model is adopted. To improve the supply chain performance, we propose a fixed inventory‐plus factor (FIPF) strategy, in which the producer announces a pre‐determined inventory‐plus factor and the distributor compensates the producer for any surplus inventory that would otherwise be wasted. We show that this strategy is a Pareto improvement over the pull and push models for both parties. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted, which reveal some interesting managerial insights on the comparison between different business models.     

The Role of Revenue‐Focused Managerial Performance Measures in Supply Chain Coordination

Many firms employ revenue‐focused managerial performance measures (RF‐MPMs) that cause managers to worry more about revenues than about costs. Although this can seemingly misalign the interests of a manager, we show that the use of such measures can help supply chain partners to overcome hold‐up issues with respect to capacity and promotion investments. We develop a game theoretic model in which two supply chain partners engage in repeated interactions in which the supplier invests in capacity and the buyer invests in demand promotion. Following the realization of demand in each period, the two firms negotiate over the output quantity and wholesale price. The novelty of our model is that we allow the owners of each firm to delegate decision‐making power and negotiating responsibility to a free‐agent manager. We characterize the conditions under which the owners of both firms employ RF‐MPMs in equilibrium and benefit from doing so. For a special case of our model, we show that for the owners of the buyer, an RF‐MPM is equivalent to a price only relational contract, and that it complements a price and quantity relational contract as a mechanism for mitigating hold‐up issues.     

Should an OEM Retain Component Procurement when the CM Produces Competing Products?

We consider a large original equipment manufacturer (OEM) who relies on a contract manufacturer (CM) to produce her product. In addition to the OEM's product, the CM also produces for a smaller OEM. Both the larger OEM and the CM can purchase the component from the supplier, but their purchase prices may differ and remain unknown to each other. The main question we address is whether the larger OEM should retain component procurement by purchasing components from the supplier and reselling to the CM (buy–sell), or outsource component procurement by letting the CM purchase directly from the supplier (turnkey). We show that, under buy–sell, the larger OEM's optimal strategy is to resell components at the highest possible component purchase price of the CM (i.e., the street price). By comparing buy–sell and turnkey, we find that a CM with low component price is better off under turnkey, even though under buy–sell he receives more profits through the products sold to the smaller OEM. Furthermore, the larger OEM's preference between buy–sell and turnkey depends on her component price, the volatility of the CM's component price and substitutability between the two products.     

Impact of Reseller's Forecasting Accuracy on Channel Member Performance

This article studies a three‐layer supply chain where a manufacturer sells a product through a reseller who then relies on its own salesperson to sell to the end market. The reseller has superior capability in demand forecasting relative to the manufacturer. We explore the main trade‐offs between the risk‐reduction effect and the information–asymmetry–aggravation effect of the improved forecasting accuracy. We show that under the optimal wholesale price contract, both the manufacturer and the reseller are always better off as the reseller's forecasting accuracy improves. Nevertheless, under the menu of two‐part tariffs, the manufacturer prefers the reseller to be either uninformed or perfectly informed about the market condition. We further find that the improved forecasting accuracy is beneficial for the reseller if its current forecasting system is either very poor or very good.     

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well‐established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site‐specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53–67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32–47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age‐weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25–27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36–66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan‐based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality.     

中国对外投资动因、制度调节与地区差异

通过整合制度观和资源观,将两者放在统一的分析框架中,考察中国企业如何利用母国制度优势克服竞争性资源占有方面的劣势,从而实现国际化战略目标。与传统思路分别分析各种内部资源和企业外部制度因素对于企业国际化的作用不同,运用调节变量的研究方法,分析母国制度因素对于资源与国际化关系的调节作用,利用2003年至2009年中国省级对外投资面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,政府资源配置能力对于不同类型的资源与对外投资的关系确实起重要的调节作用,但调节的方向和强度不同,并受地区差异的影响,表明制度因素对对外投资的影响是有条件的。通过发现制度的调节作用,为中国企业为何在缺乏企业特别所有权优势的情况下仍然能够进行对外直接投资提供一个全新角度的解释。     

破解颠覆性技术创新的跨界网络治理路径——基于百度Apollo自动驾驶开放平台的案例研究

本文以百度Apollo自动驾驶开放平台为案例研究对象,研究了平台以跨界网络治理驱动颠覆性技术创新的演进过程及其内在机制,研究发现:(1)跨界平台网络是不同于单个企业的新型技术创新组织载体,可以通过技术网络丰富、市场网络丰富和两个网络价值共创的继起性演进在驱动颠覆性技术创新中发挥重要作用;(2)在跨界网络驱动颠覆性技术创新的不同时期,为解决技术与市场不确定性高以及网络参与者关系复杂等难题,平台可以通过网络治理路径的选择促进颠覆性创新的不同过程与结果,在技术网络丰富期,平台可以通过内容治理与关系治理促进技术的内容颠覆与结构颠覆;在市场网络丰富期,可以通过价值治理与关系治理促进市场的价值颠覆与结构颠覆;在技术网络与市场网络协同的价值共创期,可以通过"网络平台包络(内容治理)、跨界网络效应激发(关系治理)、异质性利润焦点获取(价值治理)"的综合治理促进技术与市场的颠覆可持续性;(3)平台治理中的内容治理与价值治理是跨界网络治理的"硬实力",而关系治理是跨界网络治理的"软实力",软硬实力的组合共同促进颠覆性技术的技术突破与市场突破。本文丰富了网络治理理论、颠覆性创新理论和平台理论,并对尝试借助平台推进新兴前沿技术突破、尤其是跨界推进颠覆性技术创新的实践行动具有管理启示。     

一种混合建模方法及其在ETF期权定价中的应用

科学合理的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)期权定价有利于充分发挥其风险对冲功能,也是一个需要准确掌握市场规律并兼顾经济学意义的复杂建模过程。本文提出了一种新的混合建模方法,将嵌套长短时记忆神经网络模型(NLSTM)与Heston模型结合,实现ETF期权定价偏差的动态修正,并基于华夏上证50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF和华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF的高频期权数据,实验验证了所提方法的有效性。研究结果表明,不同类型ETF期权价格的波动特征差异显著,无论是基于BS定价模型还是Heston定价模型都难以准确刻画ETF期权价格的复杂变化规律。通过将NLSTM神经网络模型与Heston模型结合,能够有效地捕捉不同类型ETF期权的动态变化规律,从而提升ETF期权定价的准确性。     

试论鲁迅的文化性格及其越文化印痕

新世纪的鲁迅研究应该进一步"回到鲁迅那儿去",要重视鲁迅自身,重视鲁迅身上最恒定的,最富于个性色彩的,明显的与他人有别的带有基本特征的东西,如鲁迅的文化性格和鲁迅身上的越文化印痕就是值得我们关注的两个问题.鲁迅之为鲁迅,是由于他有特殊的文化性格,即独立自由的现代人格精神,这种文化性格不仅仅在殖民地半殖民地时代,而且在这之后仍然是中国人民最可宝贵的性格.形成鲁迅宝贵的文化性格的原因是多方面的,其中我们可以发现越文化深层的印痕.