关于GM(1,2)模型的一个改进

分析了GM(1,N)(N≥2)的建模原理,找出了其模型误差产生的部分原因,证明了在相关因素序列变化幅度很小(可视为灰常量)的条件下,GM(1,N)(N≥2)具有白指数律的充要条件与GM(1,1)模型的完全相同.并在此基础上提出了GM(1,2)模型的一个改进,从而避免了GM(1,2)模型因|a|较大而产生的误差,提高了模型的精度.     

Do children from welfare families obtain less education?

In this study, we analyzed whether parents' receipt of welfare affects children's educational attainment in early adulthood, independent of its effect through changing family income. We used data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with information on parents' welfare receipt over the first 15 years of childhood. Cross-sectional results show that greater exposure to welfare is significantly associated with children's poorer educational attainment. Family fixed-effect regressions also indicate a negative effect of exposure to welfare, but its overall pattern is less consistent. Although exposure to welfare in early childhood has no effect, in adolescence and, to a lesser degree, in middle childhood, its effect is often negative.     

从SARS和禽流感事件看我国政府危机管理的发展

从SARS事件的突然爆发突显出我国政府危机管理方面存在的重大缺失,到禽流感传入让我们看到了初步构建起的政府危机管理机制的功效,我们有理由相信,构建起一套成熟的危机管理机制十分必要。完善政府危机管理的法律法规保障体系;建立常设的危机管理综合协调部门;更加开放新闻舆论监督;建立专业化与社会化相结合的危机管理系统。     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code

We have studied the sensitivity of health impacts from nuclear reactor accidents, as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code, to the following sources of uncertainty: (1) the model for plume rise, (2) the model for wet deposition, (3) the meteorological bin-sampling procedure for selecting weather sequences with rain, (4) the dose conversion factors for inhalation as affected by uncertainties in the particle size of the carrier aerosol and the clearance rates of radionuclides from the respiratory tract, (5) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (6) the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Predicted health impacts usually showed little sensitivity to use of an alternative plume-rise model or a modified rain-bin structure in bin-sampling. Health impacts often were quite sensitive to use of an alternative wet-deposition model in single-trial runs with rain during plume passage, but were less sensitive to the model in bin-sampling runs. Uncertainties in the inhalation dose conversion factors had important effects on early injuries in single-trial runs. Latent cancer fatalities were moderately sensitive to uncertainties in the weathering half-time for ground-surface exposure, but showed little sensitivity to the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Sensitivities of CRAC2 predictions to uncertainties in the models and parameters also depended on the magnitude of the source term, and some of the effects on early health effects were comparable to those that were due only to selection of different sets of weather sequences in bin-sampling.     

Profust reliability of linear and circular type F and G systems having two failure criteria under Markov dependency

In this study, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k): F(G) and < n, f, k > : F(G) systems for Markov dependent components are investigated. Having two failure criteria are the common features of these four systems. The usage of both fuzzy approach and two failure criteria in the same system provides us more realistic approach to evaluate the reliability of more complex systems. The component configurations are examined for both linear and circular sequences and the working principle of systems are studied for both F and G systems. Under all these assumptions, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k): F(G) and < n, f, k > : F(G) systems are obtained using the distribution of run statistics. Also a new membership function different from the linear membership function which is generally used in the literature is proposed. Some numerical results which allow the comparison of the systems from various perspectives and various figures for both linear and circular type systems are presented. Some special cases (between Markov – iid assumption, conventional – profust reliability) are also considered.     

Social Change and Social Policy in Taiwan: New Poverty, M-shaped Society and Policy Implications

Along with radical changes in the global economy and family structure, Taiwan has experienced the re-emergence of the poverty problem that was thought disappearing after remarkable economic growth in the 1980s. This article would like to provide an updated profile of social changes in Taiwan, with special reference to the related poverty issues like new poverty and the M-shaped society, as Ohmae defines it in his well-known book. To begin with, we place some of the most recent developments in the context of unbalanced growth and increasing family crises. Ironically, people in Taiwan have widely used the terms of new poverty and M-shaped society since the end of 1990s, while the "economic miracle" the island wrought still remains a fond memory. Official statistics on poverty, unemployment, divorce, mental disease, and child abuse have all shown increases. The trend is a matter of serious concern. Unlike in Japan, the earnings of workers in Taiwan did not significantly decrease in recent years. Taiwan seems to deviate from the M-shaped society. We have developed two tentative but handy yardsticks for examining the shift of the middle class: the "balance index" and the "M-ratio". The former provides as a relative measure among different income groups, while the latter is designed to indicate the change of the middle class relative to the overall contribution of the people. Finally, we also discuss its implications to social policy in Taiwan.     

科技期刊编辑的思维变革

论述知识经济带来的科技期刊发展中编辑的思维方式、思维主体、思维客体、思维范式、思维工具的变革,以及科技期刊编辑强化对这些变革的认识和理解,有助于科技期刊在更高层次上发挥其媒体和传播作用,更有利于科技期刊走向未来.     

Estimation for the Parameters of the Pareto Distribution Under Progressive Censoring

In this article, progressive Type-II right censored sample from Pareto distribution is considered. Exact confidence region is derived for the parameters of the corresponding distribution under progressive censoring. Simulation study is performed to investigate the coverage probabilities of the proposed confidence region. Illustrative example is also given.     

中国早期《菩萨戒经》的性质及内容

中国在5世纪初期前后开始大量翻译多种<菩萨戒经>,这些<菩萨戒经>不但载有解释帝王们与其人民所行的佛教建国仪式("受菩萨戒仪式")的戒条,而且也记录有当时帝王们教化天下的佛教信仰内容.这些<菩萨戒经>也许皆有所本而属于中土译本,但也不排除含有当时高僧在中国编撰或修正的"经本".此类于5世纪前后出现的经典,可以说是大乘佛教在发展过程中,透过用行"受菩萨戒仪式"及散播"菩萨戒法"的方式,生成的官方提倡佛教教化信仰的汉文"经典"或"手册".因此,它们也构成了研究中国帝王施行佛教教化政策的重要资料.