A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well‐established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site‐specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53–67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32–47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age‐weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25–27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36–66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan‐based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality.     

基于混合差分进化算法的联合补货-配送优化模型

本文综合考虑联合补货与配送决策,研究了随机需求、允许缺货环境下多企业多产品联合补货与配送集成优化模型,设计了混合差分进化算法(Hybrid Differential Evolution, HDE)对该模型进行求解,同时通过算例与遗传算法、标准的DE算法进行了比较,证实HDE算法高效且稳定;另外,设计了一个先补货再配送的两阶段优化模型,对比优化结果发现采用供应链协同时补货成本较高,配送成本较低,且总成本较低。最后,对相关参数进行了敏感性分析,发现需求率和库存维持成本的变动对总成本的影响远远大过次要订货成本对总成本的影响。     

理念与光照--论柏拉图理念论对中世纪哲学的影响

理念论是柏拉图哲学的核心,在柏拉图思想体系中,它也是对中世纪基督教哲学产生最大影响的理论.它所表现出来的先验性则在中世纪发展为光照论,从而成为近代唯理论和先验论哲学的先驱.它和托马斯-亚里斯多德主义的分歧最终导致的是对上帝(神学)的两种不同态度.     

管理创新效力机制研究:基于动态能力观视角的研究框架

管理创新逐渐成为企业竞争优势最重要和持续的来源,但其复杂性及其对组织绩效影响的滞后性使得学者和实业家对管理创新效力提升问题倍感困惑。为此,以普遍存在的引进型管理创新为研究对象,尝试从企业动态能力观视角提出提升管理创新效力的思路或研究框架,并进一步从管理者个人和组织双层面阐释动态能力的提升路径,旨在为管理创新研究提供一个新的研究视角。     

A Study of Online Auction Sellers’ Intention to Switch Platform: The Case of Yahoo!Kimo Versus Ruten_eBay*

The study of consumers’ switching from one service provider to another has a long tradition in economics, information systems, and marketing. The emergence of electronic commerce presents new challenges in understanding consumers’ switching intentions in the context of e‐commerce in general and online auctions in particular. With the abundance of literature on online auctions, there is a surprising lack of research on auction sellers’ intentions to switch from one online auction platform to another. Using the competition between Yahoo!Kimo and Ruten_eBay, two leading auction platforms in Taiwan, as the backdrop, we developed a research model and collected empirical data based on this real case to study what factors influence auction sellers to switch to a competing service provider. We find that the higher the procedural switching costs, financial switching costs, relational switching costs, site design quality, or interaction quality, the lower the intention of an auction seller to switch to a competing auction service provider. A higher perceived transaction fee, however, leads to a higher switching intention.     

Does International Economic Integration Lead to a Cleaner Production in China?

In contrast to the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, the Trade‐Up Hypothesis holds that international integration helps improve firms' environmental performance in developing countries. Using firm‐level data from Shanghai, this article examines how international linkages, in the form of foreign direct investment or international trade, affect firms' environmental compliance and performance. We find that firms with international linkage via ownership exhibit better compliance with environmental regulation and emit less pollution than firms with no international linkage. We also find that firms with international linkage via market exposure are more likely to exhibit better compliance with environmental regulation than firms with no international linkage, but find no evidence that the former emit less pollution than the latter. This provides a piece of empirical evidence for the Trade‐Up Hypothesis.     

对"溺婴"的人口社会学分析

文章通过对溺婴行为的界定分析了溺婴的原因及产生的社会后果,并对如何抑制这种现象作了进一步的探讨。     

贸易自由化环境中的女性迁移流动及其对生殖健康的影响

贸易自由化引致包括女性劳动力在内的大规模乡城劳动力迁移 ,不可避免地影响着流动女性的生殖健康。通过分析社会经济相关因素以及各级政府管理、服务因素 ,本文认为贸易自由化促进的劳动力迁移对女性劳动者的生殖健康产生一定的积极影响 ;但同时 ,户籍制度的限制、工作生活环境的压力以及生殖健康服务的缺乏也在威胁流动女性的生殖健康。由此提出 :在贸易自由化的环境中改进流动人口计划生育管理和生殖健康服务 ,不但有利于流动女性的健康和发展 ,也是经济社会可持续发展的要求     

电子家庭——家庭的新模式

电子家庭是随着电子化和数字化的发展而逐渐出现并兴起的一种新型的家庭模式,技术革命、价值观的变化等导致了电子家庭的出现和兴起,也引起了我们对家庭的明天的探讨。     

进城农民工过渡性社会保障制度的构建

针对我国目前关于城乡社会保障制度完善与发展的主要观点“回归说”、“吸入说”、“综合说”,提出专门建立面向农民工的过渡性社会保障制度的构想,即“过渡说”,并从这一制度构建的公平性、过渡性、可持续性等方面初步给予论证。认为,该制度的建立是破解农民工教育、就业以及社会保障问题的一个突破口,将有利于建立一个符合我国国情,统一完善、多层次、广覆盖的城乡一体化的社会保障制度体系。