Time series forecasting with neural networks: a comparative study using the air line data

This case-study fits a variety of neural network (NN) models to the well-known air line data and compares the resulting forecasts with those obtained from the Box–Jenkins and Holt–Winters methods. Many potential problems in fitting NN models were revealed such as the possibility that the fitting routine may not converge or may converge to a local minimum. Moreover it was found that an NN model which fits well may give poor out-of-sample forecasts. Thus we think it is unwise to apply NN models blindly in 'black box' mode as has sometimes been suggested. Rather, the wise analyst needs to use traditional modelling skills to select a good NN model, e.g. to select appropriate lagged variables as the 'inputs'. The Bayesian information criterion is preferred to Akaike's information criterion for comparing different models. Methods of examining the response surface implied by an NN model are examined and compared with the results of alternative nonparametric procedures using generalized additive models and projection pursuit regression. The latter imposes less structure on the model and is arguably easier to understand.     

On-line banking: Strategic and management challenges

On-line or electronic delivery is the newest delivery channel to be offered by the retail banks, and there is wide agreement in the industry that this channel will have a significant impact. This article identifies the approaches being adopted by UK retail banks and the strategies underlying those approaches. The management problems and concerns in implementing these services are identified and discussed.     

Policy planning and central-local relations

This paper is based on research carried out at the Institute of Local Government Studies at the University of Birmingham. Policy Planning Systems are ways of dealing with the division of functions between central and local government and they provide a structure for the flow of information by means of specified procedures and processes. As this tends to create an increased flow of work, this area of planning is threatened by central and local government cut-backs in expenditures and manpower, and may well only survive by a positive demostration of its usefulness.     

A Simulated Annealing Approach to Communication Network Design

This paper explores the use of the meta-heuristic search algorithm Simulated Annealing for solving a minimum cost network synthesis problem. This problem is a common one in the design of telecommunication networks. The formulation we use models a number of practical problems with hop-limit, degree and capacity constraints. Emphasis is placed on a new approach that uses a knapsack polytope to select amongst a number of pre-computed traffic routes in order to synthesise the network. The advantage of this approach is that a subset of the best routes can be used instead of the whole set, thereby making the process of designing large networks practicable. Using simulated annealing, we solve moderately large networks (up to 30 nodes) efficiently.     

Living same-name siblings and British historical demography

This article examines the extent to which living siblings were given identical first names. Whilst the practice of sibling name-sharing appeared to have died out in England during the eighteenth century, in northern Scotland it persisted at least until the end of the nineteenth century. Previously it has not been possible to provide quantitative evidence of this phenomenon, but an analysis of the rich census and vital registration data for the Isle of Skye reveals that this practice was widespread, with over a third of eligible families recording same-name siblings. Our results suggest that further research should focus on regional variations in sibling name-sharing and the extent to which this northern pattern occurred in other parts of Britain.     

Narrative transformation in child abuse reporting

This paper examines how a case of child abuse is turned into ‘political news’. It raises the following questions: (i) which moments in the chain of events concerning child abuse are selected for coverage by the media; (ii) what is the nature of the transformation of institutional events into a particular type of covered event; and (iii) what is the dynamics of struggle over definitions of reality and the projection of certain causal links. We compare how the trade press and the national press report child abuse by concentrating on three different cycles of a particular case, Stephanie Fox (cycle 1: discovery of Stephanie's death; cycle 2: the conviction of Stephen Fox; and cycle 3: the inquiry report). Our primary focus is on the narrative transformation of the storyline as different voices and discourses are recruited to substantiate different agendas. We show how different rhetorical strategies are deployed to account for the facts of the case, while linking this up with the current situation of the reader of such media reports. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELING TIME-COST TRADE-OFFS IN CPM NETWORKS

A new type of PERT/CPM methodology is introduced whereby the individual activities within a project management network are endowed with resistive and capacitive elements. This methodology will enable us to mathematically define a completion time for the various activities and to relate the completion time to relevant cost in the completion of a particular task. It will also allow us to define the work done, and the rate at which work is being done, in an activity as a function of the applied effort and resource outlay. As a consequence, both the resource expenditure and the work done can be tracked within a network as a function of time.