Nonparametric multistep-ahead prediction in time series analysis

Summary.  We consider the problem of multistep-ahead prediction in time series analysis by using nonparametric smoothing techniques. Forecasting is always one of the main objectives in time series analysis. Research has shown that non-linear time series models have certain advantages in multistep-ahead forecasting. Traditionally, nonparametric k -step-ahead least squares prediction for non-linear autoregressive AR( d ) models is done by estimating E ( X _{t + k}  | X _t , …,  X _{t − d +1}) via nonparametric smoothing of X _{t + k} on ( X _t , …,  X _{t − d +1}) directly. We propose a multistage nonparametric predictor. We show that the new predictor has smaller asymptotic mean-squared error than the direct smoother, though the convergence rate is the same. Hence, the predictor proposed is more efficient. Some simulation results, advice for practical bandwidth selection and a real data example are provided.     

Child Sexual Abuse and Psychological Impairment in Victims: Results of an Online Study Initiated by Victims

Sexual abuse of children has been a topic of scientific investigation for the past few decades. Research in this area, however, is rarely initiated, conceptualized, and conducted by victims themselves. Apart from possibly having painted a one-sided picture of sexual abuse, this presumed dominance of nonvictims might also have marginalized victims in a research area central to their lives. This study was conducted by a victims interest group as an effort to meet the need to add victims' perspectives to our current understanding of this topic. The online survey focused on investigating victims' psychosocial impairment, which was found to be extensive. Results indicated that an intact social support system facilitates better health, especially when offered early on.     

To Whom Does the Subject Speak? Between the Relational and Lacanian Schools of Psychoanalysis: A Conversation With Adrienne Harris and David Lichtenstein,Moderated by Chris Christian

Relational psychoanalysis is a relatively new but increasingly present school in contemporary psychoanalysis. Lacanian psychoanalysis is a dominant presence in France and South America but far less so in the English-speaking clinical world. And there is little contact between them. Adrienne Harris, one of the founders of relational psychoanalysis, and David Lichtenstein, a prominent New York-based Lacanian-influenced psychoanalyst, came together in the spring of 2012 for a rare conversation about the differences, similarities, and potential meeting points between these two psychoanalytic movements. The conversation spanned a wide psychoanalytic landscape from the origins and influences of these two movements to their conceptualization of basic psychoanalytic notions such as the unconscious, the self, the process and purpose of the psychoanalytic project, the nature of trauma, the work of interpretation, and the role of the analytic relationship. Ferenczi, Winnicott, and Bromberg offered common theoretical ground for this comparative conversation.     

A Christian identity for the liberal state?

It seems to be impossible for the liberal state to embrace a Christian identity, because ‘liberalism’ is exactly a device for separating state and religion. Discussing the implications of a recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights, Lautsi v. Italy (2011), I argue that this is not necessarily so. If paired with a liberal commitment to pluralism, a Christian identity might even be more inclusive of minority religions than a narrowly ‘liberal’ state identity, which has been the dominant response in Western Europe to the challenge of immigrant diversity, especially that of Muslim origins.     

Community Reactions to a Syphilis Prevention Campaign for Gay and Bisexual Men in Los Angeles County

“Stop the Sores” (STS), a humor-based syphilis prevention campaign, was implemented in response to increasing syphilis prevalence among gay and bisexual men in Los Angeles County. In 2004, 564 men completed surveys measuring exposure and reactions to the campaign and syphilis testing. Mean age was 39, and men of color comprised a significant proportion of the sample (46.8%). Most men reported being HIV-negative (79.3%). Overall, 7.8% of the sample reported ever having syphilis; HIV-positive men were six times more likely to report this. Over one half of the sample (58.5%) reported exposure to the campaign. Men reporting any recent unprotected anal sex were twice more likely (than those who did not) to see the campaign. Men of color were twice more likely than White men to report wanting to speak to their friends about it. Finally, 39.1% of men exposed to the campaign reported being tested for syphilis as a result. Factors related to higher likelihood to test for syphilis included HIV seropositive status, any recent unprotected anal insertive sex, recent use of methamphetamine, recent use of “poppers,” and recent use of erectile dysfunction drugs. Although STS was somewhat effective, outreach efforts to particular subgroups may need to increase.     

Islam in Europa – Integration durch Recht und ihre Grenzen

The integration of Islam has largely occurred through independent legal systems. This article follows some waymarks and recurrent conflicts in this process, compares an individual rights and corporate recognition path of legal integration with respect to their possibilities and limits; and points to tensions between law and politics that result from extended legal integration. What stands out is the elasticity of legal institutions toward a religion that in no small measure must be an irritation to them.     

Media orientation of German university decision makers and the executive influence of public relations

This study investigated the executive influence of public relations managers in the German higher education system. The study is based on a whole-population survey of German university decision makers (N = 1619). It provides evidence that the mediatization of German higher education offers an important opportunity for the empowerment of university PR departments. They can benefit from the New Public Management reforms in recent years as power shifts to management-oriented administrators and the public image of universities turns into a competitive asset. Nevertheless, an indispensable precondition for PR departments’ organizational advancement resides in professionalization. PR workers need to claim a status of expert boundary spanners between their universities and the public stakeholders.     

ON BEING BOUND TO EQUIVALENTIAL CHAINS

Taking up the test case of radical anti-globalization protest, this essay addresses Ernesto Laclau's theory of the democratic demand, reading it against Lacan's and Freud's conceptions of demand. I argue, largely drawing from Lacan's conception of enjoyment that a theory of the democratic demand must take into account the risk that a subject's enjoyment in positing a demand can overwhelm the potential political of the demand itself. In response to this risk, I argue that a theory of democracy should shift from a demand-driven politics centred around enjoying a specific subject position tied to ‘resistance’ towards a desire-driven politics that productively incorporates the ‘no’ as a means of articulating collective political aspirations.     

DO LAB EXPERIMENTS MISREPRESENT SOCIAL PREFERENCES? THE CASE OF SELF‐SELECTED STUDENT SAMPLES

Social preference research has received considerable attention among economists in recent years. However, the empirical foundation of social preferences is largely based on laboratory experiments with self‐selected students as participants. This is potentially problematic as students participating in experiments may behave systematically different than nonparticipating students or nonstudents. In this paper we empirically investigate whether laboratory experiments with student samples misrepresent the importance of social preferences. Our first study shows that students who exhibit stronger prosocial inclinations in an unrelated field donation are not more likely to participate in experiments. This suggests that self‐selection of more prosocial students into experiments is not a major issue. Our second study compares the behavior of students and participants recruited from the general population in a trust experiment. In general, we find very similar behavioral patterns for the two groups, but nonstudents make significantly more generous repayments suggesting that results from student samples might be seen as a lower bound for the importance of prosocial behavior.     

Partisan Effects on Welfare State Retrenchment: Empirical Evidence from a Measurement of Government Intentions

The effect of partisanship is disputed in the literature on welfare state retrenchment. The ‘new politics’ school argues that partisan conflicts are irrelevant to the understanding of retrenchment, but the second generation of retrenchment research concludes that such conflicts are still important. We engage in this debate by introducing a new empirical approach. Our method provides a necessary but currently missing link in the second generation of retrenchment studies which theorize on the input side of welfare state reform but conduct empirical studies on the output side. Our empirical approach entails a new type of data, compiled on the basis of content analysis of adopted laws, and we analyze the intentions pursued by incumbent governments in social policy‐making. Based on an empirical study, we find partisan effects in programmes protecting against social risks that are disproportionally distributed among social strata.