Transportation between Globalization and Localization

This paper positions transport at the edge of localization and globalization forces. Drastic changes in industrial organization, transportation systems, trade patterns and environmental quality conditions make the transport and communication sector an internally contrasting and disputed activity with many pros and cons, which are reflected in serious dilemmas and policy uncertainties, at different levels of governance. In order to cope with long-range uncertainties the use of scenarios analysis is advocated. The paper then develops three scenarios and analyses them by using the recently developed spider model. The paper is concluded with some policy lessons.     

Estimating percentile-specific treatment effects in counterfactual models: a case-study of micronutrient supplementation, birth weight and infant mortality

Summary.  Clinical trials of micronutrient supplementation are aimed at reducing the risk of infant mortality by increasing birth weight. Because infant mortality is greatest among the low birth weight (LBW) infants (2500 g or under), an effective intervention increases the birth weight among the smallest babies. The paper defines population and counterfactual parameters for estimating the treatment effects on birth weight and on survival as functions of the percentiles of the birth weight distribution. We use a Bayesian approach with data augmentation to approximate the posterior distributions of the parameters, taking into account uncertainty that is associated with the imputation of the counterfactuals. This approach is particularly suitable for exploring the sensitivity of the results to unverifiable modelling assumptions and other prior beliefs. We estimate that the average causal effect of the treatment on birth weight is 72 g (95% posterior regions 33–110 g) and that this causal effect is largest among the LBW infants. Posterior inferences about average causal effects of the treatment on birth weight are robust to modelling assumptions. However, inferences about causal effects for babies at the tails of the birth weight distribution can be highly sensitive to the unverifiable assumption about the correl-ation between the observed and the counterfactuals birth weights. Among the LBW infants who have a large causal effect of the treatment on birth weight, we estimate that a baby receiving the treatment has 5% less chance of death than if the same baby had received the control. Among the LBW infants, we found weak evidence supporting an additional beneficial effect of the treatment on mortality independent of birth weight.     

The positional power of nodes in digraphs

Many economic and social situations can be represented by a digraph. Both local and global methods to determine the strength or power of all the nodes in a digraph have been proposed in the literature. We propose a new method, where the power of a node is determined by both the number of its successors and the powers of its successors. Our method, called the positional power function, determines a full ranking of the nodes for any digraph. The positional power function can either be determined as the unique solution to a nonhomogeneous system of equations, or as the limit point of an iterative process. The solution can easily be obtained explicitly, which enables us to derive a number of interesting properties of the positional power function. We also consider the Copeland variant of the positional power function. Finally, we extend our method to the class of all weighted graphs.The authors like to thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. The first author would like to thank the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for financial support.     

The extent and limits of solidarity in Dutch health care

Solidarity and equal access are twin principles in the Dutch health care system: solidarity between the rich and poor and among people with high and low risks formally guarantees equal access to health care services. However, in the past few years government policies, guided by the ideology of market reform and free choice, have resulted in patterns of inequality that favour privately insured over sickness fund insured. In the meantime, the level of public support for the principles of solidarity and equal access is dropping. A significantly larger portion of the Dutch people now believes that it would be too costly to grant everyone the right to all medical treatments possible. An important reason for the decline of solidarity and equal accessibility is the scarcity of resources. The scarcity of resources and the waiting lists resulting from it will reduce the extent of the benefits package and the access to the care services of the health system. The better-off will have the resources to receive care services that are not part of the basic package. Moreover, the scarcity of resources will affect the readiness in society to provide informal care. Opposed to the compulsory macro solidarity of the health insurance system, informal care is based on a voluntary kind of solidarity in which personal choice plays an important role. Waiting lists and diminishing professional support weaken this readiness, as such support is a necessary condition for informal carers to keep caring for their relatives and friends. Because the informal care system is a necessary supplement to the formal system of care, the lack of help offered by the latter will in the end endanger the solidarity not only in informal care, but in the institutional care system as well.