Survey non-response and the duration of unemployment

Summary.  Social surveys are often used to estimate unemployment duration distributions. Survey non-response may then cause a bias. We study this by using a data set that combines survey information of individual workers with administrative records of the same workers. The latter provide information on durations of unemployment and personal characteristics of all survey respondents and non-respondents. We develop a method to distinguish empirically between two explanations for a bias in results based on only survey data: selectivity due to related unobserved determinants of durations of unemployment and non-response and a causal effect of a job exit on non-response. The latter may occur even in fully homogeneous populations. The methodology exploits variation in the timing of the duration outcome relative to the survey moment. The results show evidence for both explanations. We discuss implications for standard methods to deal with non-response bias.     

A characterization of income distributions in terms of generalized Gini coefficients

Most commonly used parametric models for the size distribution of incomes possess only a few finite moments, and hence cannot be characterized by the sequence of their moments. However, all income distributions with a finite mean can be characterized by the sequence of first moments of the order statistics. This is an attractive feature since the generalized Gini coefficients of Kakwani (1980), Donaldson and Weymark (1980, 1983) and Yitzhaki (1983) are simple functions of expectations of sample minima. We present results which streamline these characterizations motivated by Aaberge (2000). Received: 8 March 2001/Accepted: 31 July 2001     

Survival analysis based on the proportional hazards model and survey data

The authors propose methods based on the stratified Cox proportional hazards model that account for the fact that the data have been collected according to a complex survey design. The methods they propose are based on the theory of estimating equations in conjunction with empirical process theory. The authors also discuss issues concerning ignorable sampling design, and the use of weighted and unweighted procedures. They illustrate their methodology by an analysis of jobless spells in Statistics Canada's Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics. They discuss briefly problems concerning weighting, model checking, and missing or mismeasured data. They also identify areas for further research.     

Asymptotics of cross-validated risk estimation in estimator selection and performance assessment

Risk estimation is an important statistical question for the purposes of selecting a good estimator (i.e., model selection) and assessing its performance (i.e., estimating generalization error). This article introduces a general framework for cross-validation and derives distributional properties of cross-validated risk estimators in the context of estimator selection and performance assessment. Arbitrary classes of estimators are considered, including density estimators and predictors for both continuous and polychotomous outcomes. Results are provided for general full data loss functions (e.g., absolute and squared error, indicator, negative log density). A broad definition of cross-validation is used in order to cover leave-one-out cross-validation, V-fold cross-validation, Monte Carlo cross-validation, and bootstrap procedures. For estimator selection, finite sample risk bounds are derived and applied to establish the asymptotic optimality of cross-validation, in the sense that a selector based on a cross-validated risk estimator performs asymptotically as well as an optimal oracle selector based on the risk under the true, unknown data generating distribution. The asymptotic results are derived under the assumption that the size of the validation sets converges to infinity and hence do not cover leave-one-out cross-validation. For performance assessment, cross-validated risk estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically linear for the risk under the true data generating distribution and confidence intervals are derived for this unknown risk. Unlike previously published results, the theorems derived in this and our related articles apply to general data generating distributions, loss functions (i.e., parameters), estimators, and cross-validation procedures.     

CONGESTION MODELS AND WEIGHTED BAYESIAN POTENTIAL GAMES

Games associated with congestion situations à la Rosenthal (1973) have pure Nash equilibria. This result implicitly relies on the existence of a potential function. In this paper we provide a characterization of potential games in terms of coordination games and dummy games. Second, we extend Rosenthal's congestion model to an incomplete information setting, and show that the related Bayesian games are potential games and therefore have pure Bayesian equilibria.     

“It’s not tolerance I’m asking for, it’s respect!” A conceptual framework to differentiate between tolerance, acceptance and (two types of) respect

Due to a rising interest in empirical ‘respect’ research but at the same time a somewhat fuzzy use of the term and its semantically close neighbors, we introduce a conceptual framework. The framework draws on existing philosophical traditions and empirical psychological works alike. It is pointed out that respect, acceptance, and tolerance are all attitudes of a subject towards an object which are not aligned on one dimension, but are concerned with quite different issues. Moreover, we propose that research needs to differentiate between two very different kinds of respect. Whereas appraisal respect, acceptance, and tolerance are attitudinal reflections of a subject’s decisions on certain issues (i.e., on influence, membership, and presence), recognition respect is proposed to be an overarching processing mode, i.e., a general attitude on how to confront others.     

Influence on tests with focus on linear models

To assess the influence of single observations on the parameter estimates, case-deletion diagnostics are commonly used in linear regression models; one example is Cook's distance. For nested parametric models we consider a deletion diagnostic for evaluating the influence of a single observation on the likelihood ratio (LR) test. In order to have a common scale as reference, the asymptotic distribution of the diagnostic is derived and the values of the diagnostic are converted to percentiles. We focus on linear models and general linear models, and in these cases explicit results are derived. The performance of the diagnostic is explored in two small bench mark examples from linear regression and in a larger linear mixed model example.     

Régulation et compétition entre établissements scolaires dans six espaces locaux en Europe

According to this analysis of the dynamics of competition in six school zones in Europe (Charleroi, Budapest, Lisbon, London, Lille and the Paris area), secondary schools pursue “logics of action” that are shaped by an interdependence between local establishments. Parents’ strategies for choosing a school rank establishments and lead to a competitive interdependence with a pattern and intensity that vary depending on the place — the major issue being the capacity to attract and retain pupils. A typology of these “logics” is proposed: establishments pursue a logic of conquest, profit from the status quo, diversification or adaptation depending on their local position and the intensity of competition. Questions are raised about the potentials and limits of public interventions for regulating this competitive interdependence. Competition, along with its deviant effects (segregation and inequality), arises out of the shortcomings and limitations of public interventions and out of the fragmentation of local regulations. A lack of coordination between the authorities in charge, between districts and between the public and private supply of education affects the development of opportunistic tactics by certain establishments. The conclusion draws attention to the need for coordinating regulations.     

Contained mobility and the racialization of poverty in Europe: the Roma at the development–security nexus

ABSTRACT

This paper starts from the observation that, since the collapse of eastern European state socialism, the Roma have become the subject and target of Europe-wide development programs and discourses, while, at the same time, they have been problematized in terms of social, public and national security. Due to the ways in which development and security have ambiguously come together in Europe’s recent history, I will argue that the living conditions of the poorest among the Roma have not only worsened, but also, and more fundamentally, the divide between Europe’s rich and poor has become seriously racialized and almost unbridgeable. I explain how the bio- and geopolitical conditions under which development and security have merged in Europe’s engagement with the Roma have led to a situation in which the official aim of Roma-related development programs – the improvement of their living conditions and life chances – tends to result in a dreadlock.     

Intermediaries and destination reputations: explaining flows of skilled migration

ABSTRACT

Governments have increasingly commercialised their migration services, which has fuelled a mushrooming migration industry creating a ripe context for the central role of migration intermediaries. It is therefore timely to explore the new actors responsible for shaping contemporary flows of skilled migration. Drawing on the work of existing studies and a wide variety of secondary data, we argue that the range of intermediaries who have emerged as a result of the commercialisation process, have been poorly understood in the skilled migration and migration industries literatures. Discussion of these actors sheds important theoretical light on how intermediaries, destination reputations and skilled migration flows intersect. Accordingly, we outline six propositions that identify the interconnected relationship between migration intermediaries, reputation and skilled migration flows.