An endemic–epidemic beta model for time series of infectious disease proportions

Time series of proportions of infected patients or positive specimens are frequently encountered in disease control and prevention. Since proportions are bounded and often asymmetrically distributed, conventional Gaussian time series models only apply to suitably transformed proportions. Here we borrow both from beta regression and from the well-established HHH model for infectious disease counts to propose an endemic–epidemic beta model for proportion time series. It accommodates the asymmetric shape and heteroskedasticity of proportion distributions and is consistent for complementary proportions. Coefficients can be interpreted in terms of odds ratios. A multivariate formulation with spatial power-law weights enables the joint estimation of model parameters from multiple regions. In our application to a flu activity index in the USA, we find that the endemic–epidemic beta model provides a better fit than a seasonal ARIMA model for the logit-transformed proportions. Furthermore, a multivariate approach can improve regional forecasts and reduce model complexity in comparison to univariate beta models stratified by region.     

Refugee protection in the region: A survey and evaluation of current trends

Protection in the region has rapidly become a favoured durable solution to refugee situations and the hallmark of all current policies. These initiatives reflect changes in humanitarian approaches that have taken place over the past decades as the focus has shifted towards the resilience of crisis-affected communities and the need to enable their self-reliance. Despite the strong logic that this change will bring about more dignified solutions, the approach is easily instrumentalized. This instrumentalization is particularly evident where resilience humanitarianism meets security-migration politics. This paper focuses on the efforts of the European Union and a number of its member states to advance so-called protection in the region. The paper reviews the characteristics of these policies, highlights a number of risks and defines some known and lesser known implications of this approach.     

Posterior consistency for the spectral density of non-Gaussian stationary time series

Various nonparametric approaches for Bayesian spectral density estimation of stationary time series have been suggested in the literature, mostly based on the Whittle likelihood approximation. A generalization of this approximation involving a nonparametric correction of a parametric likelihood has been proposed in the literature with a proof of posterior consistency for spectral density estimation in combination with the Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior for Gaussian time series. In this article, we will extend the posterior consistency result to non-Gaussian time series by employing a general consistency theorem for dependent data and misspecified models. As a special case, posterior consistency for the spectral density under the Whittle likelihood is also extended to non-Gaussian time series. Small sample properties of this approach are illustrated with several examples of non-Gaussian time series.     

A PARADOX OF THRIFT IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM WITHOUT FORWARD MARKETS

After 2008, the US personal saving rate had its strongest postwar jump, from 2% to 5%, and the investment ratio its sharpest fall from its postwar average of 16% to its lowest level of 12%. The coordination of saving and investment is analyzed here in a theoretical model of general equilibrium with rational expectations and no forward market. Shocks affect preferences for future consumption. A paradox of thrift is proven that formalizes an argument in the General Theory of Keynes but the equilibrium is a constrained Pareto optimum. Textbook fiscal policies are neutral at best, or inefficient.     

Rainbow Research: Challenges and Recommendations for Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity and Expression (SOGIE) Survey Design

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - A growing number of people around the world identify, in some way, as Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer...     

Temporary Employment in France: A Decade Statement

One of the more important aspects of French labour market changes since the mid-1970s is the growth of temporary work; fixed-term contracts and interim contracts. With a survey of French literature since the early 1980s, this article analyses explanatory factors of temporary work: macroeconomic factors: institutional framework, workforce supply to user firms, economic fluctuations; microeconomic factors: firm/ plant characteristics, economic and social firm strategies. Models of firms supplying temporary jobs are presented.     

How do you measure trust in social institutions and health professionals? A systematic review of the literature (2012–2021)

The importance of measuring trust in health systems has been accentuated due to its correlation with important health outcomes aimed at reducing COVID-19 transmission. A systematic review published almost a decade ago identified gaps in measures including the lack of focus on trust in systems, inconsistency regarding the dimensionality of trust and need for research to strengthen the validity of measures. Given developments in our understandings of trust since its publication, we sought to identify new scales developed, existing ones adapted in response to identified gaps, and agendas for future research. Using the PRISMA approach for systematic reviews, we conducted a search in four databases. A total of 26 articles were assessed. Twelve new scales were identified, while 14 were adapted for different settings and populations. Literature continues to focus on measuring trust in health professionals rather than systems. Various shortcomings were identified, including some articles not mentioning the dimensions included in the scale and suboptimal use of validity and reliability testing and/or reporting. Moreover, a variety of terms were used for dimensions. Future research is needed to address these gaps and consequently, to understand their correlation with health behaviors and outcomes more accurately.