Assessing Well-Being Factors in a Growing Community: A Multi-Attribute Vignette Approach

Social Indicators Research - There is significant support for measurement and utilization of subjective well-being (SWB) as an input in the public policy process, and analyses of secondary data...     

CAN LONG‐RUN RESTRICTIONS IDENTIFY TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS?

Galí's innovative approach of imposing long‐run restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized. In this paper, we investigate its reliability through Monte Carlo simulations using calibrated business cycle models. Overall, Galí's methodology appears to be fruitful: the impulse responses derived from the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses, and the approach can be informative in discriminating between alternative models. However, our results reveal some important quantitative shortcomings, including considerable estimation uncertainty about the impact of technology shocks on macroeconomic variables. More generally, the conditions under which the methodology performs well appear considerably more restrictive than implied by the key identifying assumption. This underscores the importance of using economic models to guide in the implementation of the approach, in interpreting the results, and in assessing its limitations. (JEL: C32, E32, O33)     

Abusing victims: detention of child sexual abuse victims in secure accommodation

Sexually abused children and adolescents, in limbo between revelation of abuse and trial of an alleged offender, or in emotional turmoil after such abuse, need special care and support. Evidence indicates that a number of such children are held in local authority secure centres, on various grounds: to protect them from further sexual assaults by an adult offender; because of their persistent absconding from non-secure residential centres; and because of their disturbed behaviour (including suicidal behaviours), which may have been caused by the assault. Victims of sexual abuse are held with juveniles on remand for serious crimes (including rape and murder), or (because they are too young for youth detention centres) with young adolescents who are held in detention following conviction for such crimes. Evidence is produced from case histories, and from a survey of 15 of the 27 secure detention centres for children and young people in England, that the mix of abused, disturbed and very aggressive children is highly problematic. In worst case scenarios, victims of child sexual abuse are sexually assaulted by juvenile rapists with whom they are housed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three Ways to Be Happy: Pleasure,Engagement, and Meaning—Findings from Australian and US Samples

This study examined the contributions of orientations to happiness (pleasure, engagement and meaning) to subjective well-being. A sample of 12,622 adults from the United States completed on-line surveys measuring orientations to happiness, positive affect, negative affect, and life satisfaction. A sample of 332 adults from Australia also completed these surveys as well as a measure of the big five factor personality traits. Hierarchical regressions generally supported the hypothesis that the three orientations to happiness predict subjective well-being (satisfaction with life, positive affect and negative affect) beyond sociodemographic variables and personality. Meaning and engagement explained the greatest variance in all three components of subjective well-being. Overall, these findings support the importance of a eudaimonic approach in addition to the hedonic approach to achieving happiness. Moreover, findings were relatively consistent in both the Australian and US samples. Some of these data were presented at the 8th Australian Centre on Quality of Life Conference, Melbourne, Australia.     

Bayesian covariance matrix estimation using a mixture of decomposable graphical models

We present a Bayesian approach to estimating a covariance matrix by using a prior that is a mixture over all decomposable graphs, with the probability of each graph size specified by the user and graphs of equal size assigned equal probability. Most previous approaches assume that all graphs are equally probable. We show empirically that the prior that assigns equal probability over graph sizes outperforms the prior that assigns equal probability over all graphs in more efficiently estimating the covariance matrix. The prior requires knowing the number of decomposable graphs for each graph size and we give a simulation method for estimating these counts. We also present a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the posterior distribution of the covariance matrix that is much more efficient than current methods. Both the prior and the simulation method to evaluate the prior apply generally to any decomposable graphical model.     

WELFARE AND CITIZENSHIP: The Effects of Government Assistance on Young Adults' Civic Participation

Recent scholarship and public discourse highlight an apparent waning of civic engagement in the United States. Although the welfare state is generally thought to support democracy by reducing economic inequality, it may paradoxically contribute to political disempowerment of some groups. We examine the effects of state interventions on civic participation among young adults, hypothesizing that involvement with stigmatizing social programs, such as welfare, reduces political engagement, while receipt of nonstigmatizing government assistance does not dampen civic involvement. Using official voting records and survey data from the Youth Development Study (YDS), a longitudinal community sample of young adults, a series of regression models suggests that welfare recipients are less likely to vote than nonrecipients, whereas recipients of non-means-tested government assistance participate similarly to young adults who do not receive government help. These effects hold even when background factors, self-efficacy, and prior voting behavior are controlled. Welfare receipt is not associated, however, with suppressed participation in nonstate arenas such as volunteer work. Intensive interviews with YDS welfare recipients are used to illustrate and develop the analysis.     

Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: Polarization,Individualization or ‘Middle Class Squeeze’?

Following an unprecedented boom, since 2008 Ireland has experienced a severe economic and labour market crisis. Considerable debate persists as to where the heaviest burden of the recession has fallen. Conventional measures of relative income poverty and inequality have a limited capacity to capture the impact of the recession in terms of social exclusion. This is exacerbated by a dramatic increase in the scale of debt problems including significant negative equity issues. Our analysis provides no evidence for individualization or class polarization of risk. Instead, while economic stress level is highly stratified in class terms in both boom and bust periods, the changing impact of class is highly contingent on life course stage. An income based classification showed that the affluent income class saw its advantage relative to the income poor class decline at the earliest stage of the life-course and remain stable across the rest of the life course. At the other end of the hierarchy, the income poor class experienced a relative improvement in their situation in the earlier life-course phase and no significant change at the later stages. For the remaining income classes, life-course stage was even more important. At the earliest stage the precarious class experienced some improvement in its situation while the outcomes for the middle classes remain unchanged. In the mid-life course the precarious and lower middle classes experienced disproportionate increases in their stress levels while at the later stage it is the combined middle classes that lost out. Additional effects over time relating to social class are restricted to the deteriorating situation of the petit bourgeoisie at the middle stage of the life-course. The pattern is clearly a good deal more complex than that suggested by conventional notions of ‘middle class squeeze’ and points to the distinctive challenges relating to welfare and taxation policy faced by governments in the Great Recession.     

Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood-Based Approaches

Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrap simulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasets include a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and a sample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe any point within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5–19 data points as in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.