毛泽东法律思想体系述略

毛泽东在领导中国革命的历史进程中,形成了系统的法律思想体系.这个思想体系包括法的价值、原则和法的具体主张,它构成了毛泽东系统的法律思想,对我国社会主义法制建设有着基础性和指导性的作用.     

王符的社会批判性治国思想

本文对东汉王符的社会政治经济思想进行探索,从其"以民为本"的思想以及"以学为基"的教化思想中,探寻其社会统治思想主张,以期对当前构建和谐社会提供历史借鉴.     

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well‐established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site‐specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53–67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32–47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age‐weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25–27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36–66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan‐based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality.     

不确定性规避、工作负担与领导授权行为:控制愿望与管理层级的调节作用

本研究通过问卷调查的方法,探讨了不确定性规避价值观及工作负担对领导授权行为的影响.在此基础上,本研究还进一步探讨了控制愿望与管理层级的调节作用.统计分析的结果表明:(1)不确定性规避与领导授权行为显著负相关,工作负担与领导授权行为显著正相关.(2)控制愿望显著调节不确定性规避对领导授权行为的影响.(3)职位层级分别调节不确定性规避、工作负担与领导授权行为的关系.     

不确定条件下的IT外包时机选择问题研究

IT外包的业务环境、技术环境和需求的不确定性往往会引起IT服务成本的不确定性。针对IT服务成本的不确定性和IT外包投资的不可逆性,运用传统净现值方法和实物期权方法比较固定价格合同、成本加成定价合同和收益共享合同3种常见合同的外包临界值,分析3种合同下客户企业的等待价值,并讨论客户企业推迟外包情形时的等待时间。研究结果表明,实物期权方法得出的外包临界值高于净现值方法得出的外包临界值;等待价值随无风险利率的增大而减小,随漂移率、变动率的增大而增大;当漂移率与变动率平方的比值大于二分之一时,客户企业选择外包的期望等待时间受无风险利率、漂移率和变动率的影响,其他情形下客户企业的期望等待时间不受无风险利率、漂移率和变动率的影响。研究结论为不确定条件下客户企业外包与否和外包时机的选择提供理论支持和实践指导。     

A Flexible Approach for the Decomposition of Rate Differences

Conventional methods of decomposing the difference between two rates, such as Kitagawa's classic component analysis, are confined to taking the average of compositional differences. I propose a more general modeling approach involving three steps: (1) A system of equations with the various additive components of the rate difference is set up; (2) unknowns (refined rate differences) are estimated with Clogg's purging method; (3) the components are calculated. I use an example of U.S. mortality data to compare the proposed method with the conventional ones. The method can be generalized to decompositions for multiple groups and for multiple confounding factors. Kitagawa's method is a special case of this general approach.     

四川旅游客源市场及消费结构分析

四川拥有大量的世界自然文化遗产。旅游资源丰富,其优美的自然环境和浓郁的文化氛围吸引了大批游客,使其成为国内旅游发展较为发达的地方。本论文通过对四川旅游客源市场进行分析。从不同市场角度解析了目前的现状;从旅游六大要素剖析了四川旅游消费结构现状及存在的问题,并据此提出解决消费结构存在问题的措施,以期能促进四川旅游的快速健康发展。     

壮族布洛陀文化研究的拓展与提升

壮族敬奉布洛陀为创世神、文化英雄,是珠江流域原住民族的人文始祖,吴有历史的悠久性、强烈的信仰性、鲜明的活态性和价值的多元性.布洛陀文化的研究已取得了丰硕的成果,需要进一步的拓展与提升.     

绩效考核对员工反伦理行为的影响:研究综述与未来展望

绩效考核作为一种有效的管理方法一直受到组织高度重视,但各种组织都不同程度的存在着因绩效考核引起的管理伦理问题,而且它们是相互影响的。国外对这方面的研究已有几十年的积累,而国内的相关研究才刚刚起步。本文首先回顾了国内外有关绩效考核对员工反伦理行为影响的相关研究,然后就未来的研究方向提出了看法和建议。     

上海市民消费需求调研报告

调查显示,上海市民平均消费倾向相对偏低,同时消费支出结构呈现多元化发展趋势,这是目前上海市民消费的两大基本特征。影响市民消费水平的因素主要有收入水平、投资意愿、消费观念以及消费品供给等。应紧紧抓住当前市民在网络、汽车、文化等方面的消费热点,采用各种灵活有效的方式,尽可能化解制约消费扩大的各项不利因素,进一步刺激消费增长,推动上海经济健康发展。