'The Tip of the Ice Berg': Children's Complaints and Advocacy in Wales--An Insider View from Complaints Officers

This paper is based on findings of a Welsh Assembly Governmentfunded review of children’s independent advocacy servicesin Wales with reference to their involvement in complaints madeby children, or by their parents or carers on their behalf,about local authority social services. It draws, primarily,upon qualitative interviews with local authority children’scomplaints officers, whose task is to receive complaints orconcerns, field these to appropriate social services staff,maintain oversight of their progression and keep complainantsinformed of developments. The paper describes the challengesthat complaints officers perceive children encounter in movingcomplaints forward, especially in a context where independentadvocacy services are involved and where these services areviewed with some suspicion by social services staff. It suggeststhat complaints officers play a pivotal part in managing thesometimes contested and complex interface between service providerand child and may do so from a position of limited authorityand influence. The role of complaints officers in engaging withcomplainants and their advocates, and with those colleaguesimplicated in complaints, has rarely been the topic of research.This paper provides accounts from these key staff that helpilluminate the tensions and difficulties that can enter thechildren’s complaints process.     

Multistage Models of Carcinogenesis: An Approximation for the Size and Number Distribution of Late-Stage Clones

Multistage models have become the basic paradigm for modeling carcinogenesis. One model, the two-stage model of carcinogenesis, is now routinely used in the analysis of cancer risks from exposure to environmental chemicals. In its most general form, this model has two states, an initiated state and a neoplastic state, which allow for growth of cells via a simple linear birth-death process. In all analyses done with this model, researchers have assumed that tumor incidence is equivalent to the formation of a single neoplastic cell and the growth kinetics in the neoplastic state have been ignored. Some researchers have discussed the impact of this assumption on their analyses, but no formal methods were available for a more rigorous application of the birth-death process. In this paper, an approximation is introduced which allows for the application of growth kinetics in the neoplastic state. The adequacy of the approximation against simulated data is evaluated and methods are developed for implementing the approximation using data on the number and size of neoplastic clones.     

How race affects dismissals of college football coaches

We employ a discretetime hazard model and a Blinder-decomposition approach to explore the possibility of racial discrimination in the dismissal and retention of college football coaches by university administrations. A rich data set consisting of 81 institutions over an 11-year period (1990–2000) that contains, in addition to a coach's race, variables on cumulative winning records, annual on-the-field improvements, and pre-/post-season game participation by institutions and their coaches is employed. Our study finds that black coaches, on average, face a dismissal probability that is 9.6 percentage points below that of their nonblack counterparts, ceteris paribus, suggesting that black head coaches may be the beneficiaries of favorable treatment by university administrators. Such a result likely stems from universities ' approach to social concerns involving race and gender issues. This finding also fits a construct that considers workplace discrimination as multi-dimensional. For example, black representation in the college football coaching ranks may be disproportionately low, possibly as a result of discrimination. However, once hired, black coaches are given more time to succeed than nonblacks, other things constant.     

Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models

We obtained banding and recovery data from the Bird Banding Laboratory (operated by the Biological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey) for adults from 129 avian species that had been continuously banded for > 24 years. Data were partitioned by gender, banding period (winter versus summer), and by states/provinces. Data sets were initially screened for adequacy based on specific criteria (e.g. minimum sample sizes). Fifty-nine data sets (11 waterfowl species, the Mourning Dove and Common Grackle) met our criteria of adequacy for further analysis. We estimated annual survival probabilities using the Brownie et al. recovery model {St, ft} in program MARK. Trends in annual survival and temporal process variation were estimated using random effects models based on shrinkage estimators. Waterfowl species had relatively little variation in annual survival probabilities (mean CV = 8.7% and 10% for males and females, respectively). The limited data for other species suggested similar low temporal variation for males, but higher temporal variation for females (CV = 40%). Evidence for long-term trends varied by species, banding period and sex, with no obvious spatial patterns for either positive or negative trends in survival probabilities. An exception was Mourning Doves banded in Illinois/Missouri and Arizona/New Mexico where both males (slope = -0.0122, se = 0.0019 and females (slope = -0.0109 to -0.0128, se = 0.0018 -0.0032) exhibited declining trends in survival probabilities. We believe our approach has application for large-scale monitoring. However, meaningful banding and recovery data for species other than waterfowl is very limited in North America.     

Some responses to economic change in Scottish farming and crofting family life, 1900–25

Our investigation of some of the processes involved in the emergence of ‘the modern family’is based on evidence from oral histories conducted with people who grew up in Scottish farming and crofting families in the early decades of the century. After showing how peasant and capitalist modes of production shaped both family structures and strategies for getting a living, we examine some of the ways in which the encroachments of the cash economy helped create new forms of gendered inequalities. Our discussion concludes with an analysis of recent papers concerned with the ways in which families are embedded in community life and the implications for long term change in authority structures.