A Method for Estimating Time Dependent Intervention Benefits under Arbitrarily Varying Age and Exogenous Components of Hazard

A method for estimating the dependence of intrinsic intervention benefits on time elapsed since the intervention took place is proposed. The method is aimed at intervention programs against diseases where one or all of the following components of hazard intensity may undergo important and unknown variations: 1) the intervention benefits to a subject are a function of the time elapsed since the intervention took place, or since inception for a continuing treatment, 2) the subjects vulnerability is an unknown function of their age, 3) the exogenous or environmental baseline intensity, to which all are assumed subjected, fluctuates arbitrarily with calendar time. During the time span of a study, these variables interact in a complex way, possibly masking the real contribution of the intervention. However, with very general assumptions about how hazard components interact, the cumulative hazards of subpopulations treated at different times in the past are shown to be described mathematically by a convolution of the time elapsed dependent intervention benefit function with the age and calendar time dependent baseline intensity. Starting from the cumulative hazards of untreated and treated subpopulations that had the intervention at different times in the past, a method of deconvolution through regularization is proposed to reconstruct the time elapsed dependence of the intervention benefit function. The regularization technique used is of the penalized least square smoothing type, it is applied to the solution of Volterra integral equations of the first kind under noisy inputs. Simulations, to test for the reconstruction of different modes of time elapsed variation of the intervention benefits, are carried out on realistically noisy data sets taken to be available at a limited number of time points. The stability of the estimated reconstructions, to measurement errors, is examined through repeated simulations with random noise added to inputs. The method is applied to a Brazilian data set where BCG vaccination resulted in a small reduction in the cumulated risk of leprosy infection.     

TOWARD CONSTRUCTING THE THERAPEUTIC SYSTEM*

The authors revise some of the concepts presented in their previous publications (Andolfi & Angelo, 1981; Andolfi, Nicolò-Corigliano & Menghi, 1983) and develop them further in light of their recent clinical experience. They emphasize that the therapist is not an outside neutral observer, but an active participant in the construction of the therapeutic system. The therapist can, at different times, be caring, detached, supportive, or provocative. In the fantasy of his clients he is a person who knows how to enter into a relationship and how to move out. By entering as the third pole in various triangles and activating new dimensions of rapport, he constructs complex relationships within the evolving therapeutic process. The authors also reevaluate the importance of the individual in the family as an agent of change and as a mediator of triangular relational messages.     

Household Consumption Equivalence Scales: Some Estimates from New Zealand Household Expenditure and Income Survey Data

This paper uses data on expenditures and incomes of New Zealand households of different demographic profiles to construct equivalence scales. The scales are useful in estimating the relative levels of spending required by the households to attain a given level of utility. Preference consistent 'complete demand systems' are analyzed to test for the demographic effects on the consumption patterns of households. Equivalence scales for respect to specific items of consumption as well as total consumption are worked out from the observed consumption behaviour of households. The results are largely in line with those found in existing similar studies both in Australia and New Zealand. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing equivalence scales with New Zealand household budget data in the framework of hypothesized utility maximizing behaviour of households.     

Quantitative central limit theorems for Mexican needlet coefficients on circular Poisson fields

The aim of this paper is to establish rates of convergence to Gaussianity for wavelet coefficients on circular Poisson random fields. This result is established by using the Stein–Malliavin techniques introduced by Peccati and Zheng (Electron J Probab 15(48):1487–1527, 2010) and the concentration properties of so-called Mexican needlets on the circle.     

On the Inefficiency of Political Exchange

A classic argument in economic theory is that in a world of zero transaction costs the free bargaining among parties spontaneously leads to an efficient allocation of resources. Attempts have been made by many economists to apply such an argument to the field of politics. In contrast to market exchanges, political exchanges have been widely criticized on ethical grounds. Going beyond the well-known moral criticism regarding the exchange of votes, the paper attempts to demonstrate how in politics, ethics and economics can go hand in hand. Specifically, it proposes an unusual perspective on transaction costs, by arguing that the enhancement of such costs can be required to achieve efficient results in specific circumstances, where the free bargaining among parties conflicts with the public issue to be addressed. This suggests the basic idea that, while in markets transaction costs should be reduced, in politics, they may require to be enhanced.     

Be Careful Where You Smile: Culture Shapes Judgments of Intelligence and Honesty of Smiling Individuals

Smiling individuals are usually perceived more favorably than non-smiling ones—they are judged as happier, more attractive, competent, and friendly. These seemingly clear and obvious consequences of smiling are assumed to be culturally universal, however most of the psychological research is carried out in WEIRD societies (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) and the influence of culture on social perception of nonverbal behavior is still understudied. Here we show that a smiling individual may be judged as less intelligent than the same non-smiling individual in cultures low on the GLOBE’s uncertainty avoidance dimension. Furthermore, we show that corruption at the societal level may undermine the prosocial perception of smiling—in societies with high corruption indicators, trust toward smiling individuals is reduced. This research fosters understanding of the cultural framework surrounding nonverbal communication processes and reveals that in some cultures smiling may lead to negative attributions.     

Large deviations for estimators of some threshold parameters

In this paper, we consider a class of statistical models with a real-valued threshold parameter, which is either the minimum or the maximum of the support of the sampling distribution. We prove large deviation principles for sequences of estimators (maximum likelihood estimators and posterior distributions) as the sample size goes to infinity. Furthermore we illustrate some connections with the analogous large deviation results for the natural exponential families.     

A Bayesian compartmental model for the evaluation of 1,3-butadiene metabolism

Summary. We propose a Bayesian model for physiologically based pharmacokinetics of 1,3-butadiene (BD). BD is classified as a suspected human carcinogen and exposure to it is common, especially through cigarette smoke as well as in urban settings. The main aim of the methodology and analysis that are presented here is to quantify variability in the rates of BD metabolism by human subjects. A three-compartmental model is described, together with informative prior distributions for the population parameters, all of which represent real physiological variables. The model is described in detail along with the meanings and interpretations of the associated parameters. A four-compartment model is also given for comparison. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are described for fitting the model proposed. The model is fitted to toxicokinetic data obtained from 133 healthy subjects (males and females) from the four major racial groups in the USA, with ages ranging from 19 to 62 years. Subjects were exposed to 2 parts per million of BD for 20 min through a face mask by using a computer-controlled exposure and respiratory monitoring system. Stratification by ethnic group results in major changes in the physiological parameters. Sex and age were also tested but not found to have a significant effect.     

Estimating the asymptotic relative efficiency of weighted rankings

Five tests for the hypothesis of no treatment effects in complete blocks designs are compared with respect to asymptotic relative efficiency: the ordinary two-way analysis of variance, the analysis of variance of ranks (Friedman, 1937), the method of ranking after alignment (Hodges and Lehmann, 1962), and a method of weighted rankings proposed by Quade (1972, 1979). This comparison required devising a procedure for estimating the asymptotic relative efficiencies of test statistics with asymp-totic chi-squared distributions.