QUANTIFYING THE PREMIUM EXTERNALITY OF THE UNINSURED

In insurance markets, the uninsured can generate a negative externality on the insured, leading insurance companies to charge higher premia. Using a novel panel data set and a staggered policy change that introduces exogenous variation in the rate of uninsured drivers at the county level in California, we find that uninsured drivers lead to higher insurance premia: a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of uninsured drivers raises premia by roughly 1%. We calculate the monetary fine on the uninsured that would fully internalize the externality and conclude that actual fines in most US states are inefficiently low.     

Estimating efficacy in a proposed randomized trial with initial and later non-compliance

Summary.  A controversial topic in obstetrics is the effect of walking on the probability of Caesarean section among women in labour. A major reason for the controversy is the presence of non-compliance that complicates the estimation of efficacy, the effect of treatment received on outcome. The intent-to-treat method does not estimate efficacy, and estimates of efficacy that are based directly on treatment received may be biased because they are not protected by randomization. However, when non-compliance occurs immediately after randomization, the use of a potential outcomes model with reasonable assumptions has made it possible to estimate efficacy and still to retain the benefits of randomization to avoid selection bias. In this obstetrics application, non-compliance occurs initially and later in one arm. Consequently some parameters cannot be uniquely estimated without making strong assumptions. This difficulty is circumvented by a new study design involving an additional randomization group and a novel potential outcomes model (principal stratification).     

A construction of repeated measurements designs with balance for residual effects

Families of Repeated Measurements Designs balanced for residual effects are constructed (whenever the divisibility conditions allow), under the assumption that the number of periods is less than the number of treatments and that each treatment precedes each other treatment once. These designs are then shown to be connected for both residual and direct treatment effects.     

Experiential and Informational Knowledge,Architectural Marketing Capabilities,and the Adaptive Performance of Export Ventures: A Cross‐National Study

Knowledge‐based view (KBV) theory posits that the acquisition and use of relevant knowledge is key to understanding organizational performance. However, there is relatively little empirical evidence to support or refute several important propositions underlying KBV theory explanations of organizational performance. In particular, the extant literature has focused on individual technical and scientific components of the knowledge bases of firms in dynamic industries, and largely ignored both different levels of informational and experiential knowledge relevant to the market environment, and the increasingly important context of exporting. Our study addresses these knowledge gaps by developing a framework for export venture knowledge management and empirically examining relationships between different types of individual‐level and organizational‐level knowledge relevant to the market environment, architectural marketing capabilities, and the adaptive performance of export ventures. Using primary data collected in the United Kingdom and China, our study indicates that export ventures' organizational‐level experiential and informational knowledge, and individual‐level experiential knowledge relevant to the market environment, is positively associated with export ventures' architectural marketing capabilities, which are in turn associated with the adaptive performance of export ventures.     

Policy convergence in a two-candidate probabilistic voting model

We propose a generalization of the probabilistic voting model in two-candidate elections. We allow the candidates have general von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions defined over the voting outcomes. We show that the candidates will choose identical policy positions only if the electoral competition game is constant-sum, such as when both candidates are probability-of-win maximizers or vote share maximizers, or for a small set of functions that for each voter define the probability of voting for each candidate, given candidate policy positions. At the same time, a pure-strategy local Nash equilibrium (in which the candidates do not necessarily choose identical positions) exists for a large set of such functions. Hence, if the candidate payoffs are unrestricted, the “mean voter theorem” for probabilistic voting models is shown to hold only for a small set of probability of vote functions.     

Exact simulation of Gaussian Time Series from Nonparametric Spectral Estimates with Application to Bootstrapping

The circulant embedding method for generating statistically exact simulations of time series from certain Gaussian distributed stationary processes is attractive because of its advantage in computational speed over a competitive method based upon the modified Cholesky decomposition. We demonstrate that the circulant embedding method can be used to generate simulations from stationary processes whose spectral density functions are dictated by a number of popular nonparametric estimators, including all direct spectral estimators (a special case being the periodogram), certain lag window spectral estimators, all forms of Welch's overlapped segment averaging spectral estimator and all basic multitaper spectral estimators. One application for this technique is to generate time series for bootstrapping various statistics. When used with bootstrapping, our proposed technique avoids some – but not all – of the pitfalls of previously proposed frequency domain methods for simulating time series.     

A Descriptive Study of Home Modifications for People with Dementia and Barriers to Implementation

This study describes home environmental features, safety issues, and health-related modifications in a community dwelling sample of 82 elderly people with dementia. Main barriers to the accessibility of the homes were steps, both inside and outside the house. The majority of the caregivers had made home modifications, which pertained mainly to physical limitations. Home modifications to support cognitive deficits were made to a lesser extent. The main barrier to the implementation of home modifications to accommodate the care recipient's memory loss was skepticism about their usefulness. Regarding the removal of physical barriers, financial constraints were most frequently mentioned.     

Obstacles to export initiation and expansion

The increasing globalization of markets witnessed in recent years has been paralleled by growing research attention upon the internationalization of small and medium sized firms. In industrialized nations, a significant degree of dormant export potential has been identified in this firm size sector. The proliferation of extant literature can explain structural, behavioural and process-based aspects of export expansion. However, it remains that limited conceptual and empirical insights exist that explain the phenomena underlying pre-export decision making and behaviour. The present inquiry addresses this issue and investigates those obstacles that act upon domestic firms' intentions to enter overseas markets via the export channel. Specifically, the empirical study documented here establishes significant differences in the extent to which exporting obstacles discourage export engagement amongst varied groups of domestic firms considered in terms of their export intention. It also draws a similar comparison between such groups of non-exporting firms and those already engaged in export operations. The findings are interpreted and discussed in the light of current knowledge and attention is paid towards pertinent implications for export management and future research.     

Probabilities of Failure in Mixed Acceptance Sampling Schemes

Mixed acceptance sampling schemes are commonly used for consumer protection. In a typical application, a sample is taken from a product lot and tested to check that the average value of the sample is not less than the labelled net content, and that there is no 'unreasonable' deficiency in any individual item. Exact and approximate expressions are obtained for the probabilities of failure or success under such schemes and under a variety of conditions.