Neural networks and flexible regression and discrimination

Feed-forward neural networks—also known as multi-layer perceptrons—are now widely used for regression and classification. In parallel but slightly earlier, a family of methods for flexible regression and discrimination were developed in multivariate statistics, and tree-induction methods have been developed in both machine learning and statistics. We expound and compare these approaches in the context of a number of examples.     

REAL WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT UNCERTAINTY AND THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DECISIONS OF MARRIED WOMEN

This paper argues that an important factor in a married woman's decision to enter the labor force is the degree of uncertainty associated with expectations offuture wages and (husband's) income, and that high levels of uncertainty during the 1970s may have contributed substantially to the growth in participation in that decade. We apply a model of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to aggregate time series data to measure the level of uncertainty in each period. Our estimates support our hypothesis that the level of uncertainty is an important determinant of labor force participation for married women.     

Epidemiological surveys of pathological gambling: Critique and suggestions for modification

Epidemiological studies of problem and pathological gambling were examined for their accuracy. Fundamental flaws and biases were found in these surveys. These include problems with survey instruments; nonresponses and refusal bias; the exclusion of institutionalized populations; exclusion of other groups; and failure to protect against denial on the part of the respondent when others are present near the telephone. Based on the issues discussed, one can reasonably be expected to assume that most epidemiological surveys seriously underestimate the extent of problem and pathological gambling. Alternative strategies for addressing these issues are discussed. These strategies include the use of field interviews, surveys of institutionalized populations, frequent player surveys and significant other surveys. The value and potential problems of these approaches are also discussed.This is a revision of a paper presented at the 9th International Conference on Risk and Gambling, Las Vegas, Nevada.The author would like to thank Rachel Volberg and Mark Dickerson as well as conference participants for their valuable suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Television viewing and adolescents' sexual behavior.

Over the past two decades the sexual content on television has increased in frequency and explicitness but has seldom included depiction of the use of contraceptives. Concurrently, the age of initiation of heterosexual intercourse has decreased and the number of teenaged pregnancies has remained high. Are these trends related? This survey of 391 adolescents found that those who chose heavier diets of sexy television shows were more likely than those who viewed a smaller proportion of sexual content on television to have had sexual intercourse. This relationship held regardless of perceived peer encouragement to engage in sex and across race and gender groups. While causal direction is not clear from these data, the relationship suggests that either sexual activity results in increased interest in sexual content in the media and/or that viewing such content leads to sexual activity. In either case, the finding points to the need for further research and increased discussion and portrayal of the use of contraceptives on television.     

Emotional displays in children's television programming

The facial expressions of emotion and the circumstances under which the expressions occurred in a sample of the most popular children's television programs were investigated in this study. Fifteen-second randomly selected intervals from episodes of five television programs were analyzed for displays of happiness, sadness, anger, fear, disgust, and surprise. In addition, the contexts in which the emotions occurred were examined. Results indicated that particular emotional expressions occurred at significantly different frequencies and that there was an association between emotional displays and emotion-contexts. The high rate of emotional displays found in television shows has implications for the development of knowledge regarding emotional display rules in viewers.We are grateful to Sharon Galligan for assistance in coding part of the data and to Carolyn Saarni and Amy Halberstadt for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This research was supported in part by a grant from the National Institute of Disabilities and Rehabilitation Research, #GOO85351. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the U.S. Department of Education.     

Validating Benefit and Cost Estimates: The Case of Airbag Regulation

Preregulation estimates of benefits and costs are rarely validated after regulations are implemented. This article performs such a validation for the mandatory automobile airbag requirement. We found that the original 1984 model used to estimate benefits became invalid when 1997 values were input into that 1984 model. However, using a published 1997 cost-effectiveness model, we demonstrate, by replacing the model inputs with the values from 1984, that the 1997 cost-effectiveness ratios, based on real-world crash data and tear-down cost data, are less attractive than what would have been originally anticipated. The three most important errors in the 1984 input values are identified: the overestimation of airbag effectiveness, the overestimation of baseline fatality/injury rates, and the underestimation of manual safety belt use. This case study, which suggests that airbags are a reasonable investment in safety, shows that the regulatory analysis tools do not always produce findings that are biased against health, safety, and environmental regulation. Future validation studies of health, safety, and environmental regulation should focus on validation of benefit and risk estimates, areas where we found significant error, as well as on cost estimates.     

Follow-up of male pathological gamblers after treatment: The relationship of intellectual variables to relapse

Male pathological gamblers entering a comprehensive treatment program were followed-up for twelve months after treatment completion. Twelve month follow-up was obtained for 45 of the 66 patients entering treatment. Total abstinence was reported by 55% (n=25) of the patients located for twelve month follow-up. A relationship was found between abstinence at six month follow-up and selected subscales of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, performance scale. The implications of these findings for sub-typing gamblers are discussed.     

The importance of coping skill enhancement in the treatment of the pathological gambler

The importance of coping skill enhancement in the treatment of pathological gamblers is discussed. It is particularly critical to assess and enhance the coping skills of relapse prone gamblers who are marked by unusual degrees of impulsivity, high levels of negative affect and feelings of helplessness and hopelessness. A study of 1129 substance abusers, including 140 with serious gambling problems is reported. All were assessed to determine their repertoire of coping skills. The patients with serious gambling problems utilized significantly more avoidant and impulsive coping styles.     

PTSD and the Vietnam veteran: the battle for treatment

1. Patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often encounter treatment that is complicated by professional bias, personal issues, countertransference, and pathological staff dynamics. 2. Treatment is further complicated by diagnostic confusion, the dual diagnoses of substance abuse or depression, and symptoms that mimic personality disorders or psychosis. 3. The special circumstances of the Vietnam conflict that contributed to the susceptibility and etiology of PTSD are the individual characteristics of those who served, the special nature of the war itself and the military strategies used, and the psychosocial and cultural milieu in which it occurred.