非自治时滞差分方程的渐近稳定性

研究非线性非自治时滞差分万程 △χ_(ｎ)＋α_(ｎ)χ_(ｎ)＋ｆ（ｎ,χ_(ｎ－ｋ),χ_(ｎ－ｋ_(２)),…,χｎ－ｋｍ）＝ ０的一致稳定性和一致渐近稳定性,用不同的方法推广已有的相关定理。     

公共事务合作治理模式:反思与探索

作为一种当前备受推崇的新型公共事务治理模式,合作治理并不是万能的,它也存在诸多困境与发展瓶颈.剖析合作治理的内在缺陷及所处困境,可以提出有效的应对之策,即通过提高合作治理能力、优化合作治理结构、建构合作治理机制、培育合作治理文化等措施完善合作治理模式,从而实现和增进公共利益.     

试论"一届政协"的历史方位

"一届政协"是中国现代国家成长历程中的"关键节点",实现了从"私天下"到"公天下"的历史性跃迁.作为一种传统基因与现代特性有机结合的政治创设,"一届政协"不仅构筑了建国初期中国政治理念及其制度逻辑的体制性平台,而且还奠定了当代中国政治架构的制度基础与运作范式.     

"产业集聚理论与政策国际研讨会"会议综述

回答"在何地生产"这一经济学基本问题的产业集聚和空间经济学研究,近年来在理论和实证两个层面上都得到了深入的发展,其基本研究范式和政策议题逐渐被主流经济学框架"接纳".在国内,随着区域经济差距不断扩大,社会经济政策重心逐渐朝区域均衡协调发展转向,越来越多的学者把研究的焦点投向了产业集聚和空间经济学相关领域.     

Asymptotic study of the change-point mle in multivariate Gaussian families under contiguous alternatives

The problem of estimating an unknown change-point in the mean vector or covariance matrix of a sequence of independent multivariate Gaussian random variables is considered. Adapting the estimation methodology that Hinkley pursued for the case of abrupt changes, we develop theory for deriving the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the change-point when the amount of change is a function of the sample size and goes to zero in a smooth fashion as the sample size goes to infinity, yielding a contiguous change-point model. Simulations have been performed to illustrate the closeness of the asymptotic distribution with the empirical distribution, and to evaluate its robustness to departures from normality for reasonable sample sizes as well as parameter changes. Finally, we apply the methodology to estimate the change-point in the daily log-returns data of BLS (BellSouth) and VZ (Verizon) from NYSE.     

转轨经济、双边市场与文化市场一体化

转轨经济下的财政分权、政府职能过宽、文化企业所有制结构等因素是导致文化市场分割的主要原因,文化市场的特点及其变迁趋势具有"双边市场化"倾向,双边市场化是推进文化市场一体化的重要手段.文化市场一体化的实现可以采用以"三联平台"为特征的推进模式,该模式包括制度与政策驱动、资源共同开发驱动、市场势力驱动和价值链网驱动四条变迁路径.     

土地流转对农村阶层冲突的影响研究

农村土地流转实质上是一个农村各阶层之间的利益再分配过程,是农村各阶层围绕土地利益所进行的持续"博弈"过程.在这一过程中,农村各阶层由于在土地流转利益上存在不一致,因而也必然存在着各种利益冲突.实证研究的结果表明:利益不一致是阶层冲突的根本原因;争吵是阶层冲突的主要解决方式.因此,要科学制定农村土地流转政策,就必须做到:一是要积极建立农村新的利益协商机制;二是要加大中介组织的建设力度;三是要积极培育农民维权组织.     

Implementation of a Bayesian adaptive design in a proof of concept study

With increased costs of drug development the need for efficient studies has become critical. A key decision point on the development pathway has become the proof of concept study. These studies must provide clear information to the project teams to enable decision making about further developing a drug candidate but also to gain evidence that any effect size is sufficient to warrant this development given the current market environment. Our case study outlines one such proof of concept trial where a new candidate therapy for neuropathic pain was investigated to assess dose-response and to evaluate the magnitude of its effect compared to placebo. A Normal Dynamic Linear Model was used to estimate the dose-response--enforcing some smoothness in the dose-response, but allowing for the fact that the dose-response may be non-monotonic. A pragmatic, parallel group study design was used with interim analyses scheduled to allow the sponsor to drop ineffective doses or to stop the study. Simulations were performed to assess the operating characteristics of the study design. The study results are presented. Significant cost savings were made when it transpired that the new candidate drug did not show superior efficacy when compared placebo and the study was stopped.     

TimeOut@UCLA: An Intergenerational Respite Care and Workforce Development Program

TimeOut@UCLA is an intergenerational program that recruits undergraduate college students to provide companionship to older adults with early Alzheimer’s or other forms of dementia in a community setting, providing respite for their caregivers. In the program, 86 students and 89 seniors participated from September 2015 to December 2016. This program appears to reinforce positive attitudes about working with older adults among undergraduate students and gives caregivers an innovative option for respite time.     

Environmentally Responsible Happy Nation Index: Refinements and 2015 Rankings

Fifty years have elapsed since Cantril (1965) published his work on The Pattern of Human Concerns. His line of inquiry has stood the test of time. In late 2012, the nationally representative South African Social Attitudes Survey replicated Cantril’s 1960s questions and methodology to elicit South Africans’ hopes and aspirations and worries and fears for self and country and their ratings of where self and country stood—past, present and will stand in future. Although Cantril’s ‘ladder-of life’ scale is still regularly used as a measure of subjective well-being, to our knowledge his full line of preliminary questioning has not been fielded again to date. Our study found that South African aspirations for self were mainly material ones for a decent standard of living and the means to achieve this goal. Hopes for the nation concentrated on economic and political progress to consolidate South Africa’s democracy. A large number of personal and national hopes were mirrored in fears that these aspirations might not be met. Cantril’s method also allowed us to review the main concerns and ratings across the diverse groups of citizens that make up the ‘rainbow nation’. There was a substantial degree of consensus on top hopes and fears but levels of standing on the Cantril ladder of life were still graded according to apartheidera inequalities with black South Africans scoring lower than other race groups. Nonetheless, the majority of South Africans rated their present life better than 5 years ago and projected life to get better in future. Such optimism may place considerable pressure on the state to deliver on personal and societal hopes as the country enters its third decade of democracy.