The characterization of Monte Carlo errors for the quantification of the value of forensic evidence

Recent developments in forensic science have lead to a proliferation of methods for quantifying the probative value of evidence by constructing a Bayes Factor that allows a decision-maker to select between the prosecution and defense models. Unfortunately, the analytical form of a Bayes Factor is often computationally intractable. A typical approach in statistics uses Monte Carlo integration to numerically approximate the marginal likelihoods composing the Bayes Factor. This article focuses on developing a generally applicable method for characterizing the numerical error associated with Monte Carlo integration techniques used in constructing the Bayes Factor. The derivation of an asymptotic Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) for the Bayes Factor will be presented and its applicability to quantifying the value of evidence will be explored using a simulation-based example involving a benchmark data set. The simulation will also explore the effect of prior choice on the Bayes Factor approximations and corresponding MCSEs.     

Bibliometric Network Analysis and Visualization for Serials Librarians: An Introduction to Sci2

ABSTRACT

Bibliometric data have the potential to inform collection development, describe institutional scholarship strengths and citation patterns, and suggest potential areas of research collaboration. This article introduces methods of using data from citation databases to generate bibliometric analyses of journal titles, subject matter, and coauthorship networks using the open software tool Science of Science (Sci2). These analyses can be used to enhance responsive institutional and network collecting and to connect users to additional research and publication partners.     

Cross-entropy method for estimation of posterior expectation in Bayesian VAR models

In this article, an importance sampling (IS) method for the posterior expectation of a non linear function in a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model is developed. Most Bayesian inference problems involve the evaluation of the expectation of a function of interest, usually a non linear function of the model parameters, under the posterior distribution. Non linear functions in Bayesian VAR setting are difficult to estimate and usually require numerical methods for their evaluation. A weighted IS estimator is used for the evaluation of the posterior expectation. With the cross-entropy (CE) approach, the IS density is chosen from a specified family of densities such that the CE distance or the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the optimal IS density and the importance density is minimal. The performance of the proposed algorithm is assessed in an iterated multistep forecasting of US macroeconomic time series.     

Preventing Religious Radicalization in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Role of the BiH Islamic Community

The goal of the paper is to identify the Islamic Community’s methods of preventing religious radicalization in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The roots of radicalism and extremism are explained by examining “Islamic revival” and studied within the Bosnian context. Although BiH appears in many international reports as a potential “cradle of terrorism”, the situation on the ground is quite different and there are many instances of combined efforts by the government and religious institutions in preventing religious radicalization in BiH. The analysis focuses on the Islamic community’s efforts to contend the spread of illegal mosques that sometimes promote radical Islam in BiH. Although there are radical individuals with different and sometimes radical understanding of Islam, the majority of Bosnian Muslims oppose any form of religious radicalization. The Islamic Community plays the most important role in preventing the spread of radical Islam in BiH, and this paper analyzes its efforts to homogenize Bosnian Muslims and prevent radicalization.     

Uncovering the Truth: The Lake Perućac Exhumations in Eastern Bosnia

The aggression and genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) from 1992 to 1995 left an estimated 30,000 missing persons mainly Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims). These victims consisted of mostly male civilians, but also a significant number of women, elderly and children. Remains of victims are being uncovered in mass graves by expert teams since 1996. The mass graves included various sites spread across the territory that became known as Republika Srpska after the war ended. In many cases ravines, rivers and lakebeds were used as mass graves where the bodies were dumped and hidden. This article describes the largest operation to uncover human remains of victims in BiH and beyond, which took place in 2010, and was undertaken by the Missing Persons Institute of BiH on the dried up surface of the Peru?ac Lake on the Drina River in Eastern Bosnia. This article aims to record the important aspects of the operation and the personal stories of the victims found.     

Exchange Rate Policy in Serbia

In August 2006, Serbia adopted an inflation targeting regime as its monetary regime. The initial period of implementation of this regime was characterized by an extremely high capital inflow and appreciation of the exchange rate of the dinar. Under such conditions, the selected monetary policy regime functioned well. However, at the end of 2008, when the global financial crisis caused the outflow of foreign capital, deterioration of foreign borrowing conditions and an increase in inflationary expectations, the dinar lost about 25 per cent of its value within a relatively short period, despite the interventions of the National Bank of Serbia in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the authors of this paper raise a dilemma whether Serbia conducts an adequate policy of the exchange rate of the dinar. The authors point out that, at the moment, the policy of a free floating exchange rate is not adequate for Serbia. As an alternative, a two nominal-anchor regime—inflation and the exchange rate—is proposed.     

Automated statistical methods for measuring the strength of block ciphers

A block cipher is one of the most common forms of algorithms used for data encryption. This paper describes an efficient set of statistical methods for analysing the security of these algorithms under the black-box approach. The procedures can be fully automated, which provides the designer or user of a block cipher with a useful set of tools for security analysis.     

Building Social Capability for Economic Catch-up: The Experience and Prospects of the Post-socialist Countries

The post-socialist countries are, by the standards of the EU, poor countries. The major developmental task facing these countries is, therefore, that of catching up with their more prosperous neighbours. The scope for catch-up is defined in terms of the levels of social capability exhibited by these societies and their capacity to establish technological congruence with the leading firms from the advanced industrial economies. S&T systems in the broadest sense are shown to be key factors in relation to both social capability and technological congruence. Detailed analysis of the transition countries indicates that the catch-up process is hampered across the board by specific gaps in social capability and elements of technological incongruence. These can in turn be traced to specific structural trends, in particular in relation to foreign investment, and to specific weaknesses of institutional development, cutting across the public/private dividing line, notably in relation to R&D systems and banking systems. Consideration of all these factors suggests that there can be no assumption that the transition countries will automatically catch up with western Europe, and that some disfavoured transition countries may, indeed, continue to fall behind.     

Two-dimensional Kolmogorov-type goodness-of-fit tests based on characterisations and their asymptotic efficiencies

In this paper, new two-dimensional goodness-of-fit tests are proposed. They are of supremum type and are based on two different types of characterisations. The first type are those that involve functional equations that the distribution function satisfies, while the second type uses independence of some statistics. The asymptotics of the statistics is studied and Bahadur efficiencies of the tests against some close alternatives are calculated. In the process, a theorem on large deviations of Kolmogorov-type statistics has been extended to the multidimensional case.     

The Quest for Government Accountability and Rule of Law: Conflicting Strategies of State and Civil Society in Cambodia and Serbia

This article deals with the social accountability activities of civil society organizations in Serbia and Cambodia. In both countries, they emerged with the conceptual and financial support of international development agencies; yet, the outputs were mediated by the social and political contexts. Still, these activities have some joint features: they (1) boost both understanding and awareness rather than solely mobilizing social interests; (2) target the interests of individual citizens rather than the interests of social-based groups or classes; (3) promote state cooperation instead of confrontation and (3) insist on the use of technical policy-related tools and mechanisms instead of political mobilization. The social accountability initiatives analyzed here have followed a policy-not-politics or depoliticized approach. As a consequence, they were ineffective in mobilizing citizens and social groups in a manner that would efficiently demand more accountability. On the other hand, governments contested civil society and appropriated its accountability discourses and strategies in an effort that can be read as an attempt to resist imposing government accountability and rule of law and pacifying present and future civic activism.