Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

The Uniqueness of the Child–Father Attachment Relationship: Fathers' Sensitive and Challenging Play as a Pivotal Variable in a 16-year Longitudinal Study

This longitudinal study of forty‐four families explored fathers’ as compared to mothers’ specific contribution to their children's attachment representation at ages 6, 10, and 16 years. In toddlerhood, fathers’ and mothers’ play sensitivity was evaluated with a new assessment, the sensitive and challenging interactive play scale (SCIP). Fathers’ SCIP scores were predicted by fathers’ caregiving quality during the first year, were highly consistent across 4 years, and were closely linked to the fathers’ own internal working model of attachment. Qualities of attachment as assessed in the Strange Situation to both parents were antecedents for children's attachment security in the Separation Anxiety Test at age 6. Fathers’ play sensitivity and infant–mother quality of attachment predicted children's internal working model of attachment at age 10, but not vice versa. Dimensions of adolescents’ attachment representations were predicted by fathers’ play sensitivity only. The results confirmed our main assumption that fathers’ play sensitivity is a better predictor of the child's long‐term attachment representation than the early infant–father security of attachment. The ecological validity of measuring fathers’ sensitive and challenging interactive play behavior as compared to infant proximity seeking in times of distress is highlighted. Findings are discussed with respect to a wider view on attachment in that both parents shape their children's psychological security but each in his or her unique way.     

Determination of a Tolerable Daily Intake of DDT for Consumers of DDT Contaminated Fish from the Lower Yakima River, Washington*

DDT, DDE, and DDD have been detected at elevated concentrations in sediments and fish of the Yakima River, its tributaries and drainages. An assessment was conducted to evaluate the public health significance of eating fish from the river. This was accomplished by establishing a daily intake level of DDT for the population of greatest concern, and comparing this level to a tolerable daily intake. The most sensitive and highly exposed group was determined to be breastfeeding infants. Infant daily intakes of DDT, based on estimated mother's DDT-breast milk levels, were compared to a recommended tolerable daily intake. Results indicate that mothers who frequently consume Yakima River bottom-feeding fish could have breast milk DDT concentrations sufficiently high to expose their infants to levels above the tolerable daily intake.     

How human resource outsourcing affects organizational learning in the knowledge economy

Adaptability and knowledge management, key elements of organizational learn-ing, are critical to organizational success as a result of a fundamental shift towards a knowledge economy. HR outsourcing and the growth in contingent work can result in a significant loss in learning capital through a breakdown in the psychological contract. We explore how to preserve HR's strategic role in facilitating organizational learning in the new outsourcing and offshoring con-text. The problem is compounded if outsourcing is introduced for cost control rather than strategic refocusing reasons. We suggest that managers can posi-tively influence the relationship between outsourcing and organizational learn-ing through internal marketing tactics and enriched psychological contracts. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Administrative Sciences Association of Canada (ASAC) Annual Meeting, Toronto, Canada, June 2005.     

Career Maturity in College Students With Learning Disabilities

This study compared levels of career maturity between college students with and without learning disabilities and investigated factors associated with career maturity. Few differences in career maturity were found. However, different predictors of career maturity for the two groups emerged. For students with learning disabilities, number of accommodations and quantity of work experience accounted for 22% of the variance in career maturity. For students without disabilities, academic achievement and type of work experience accounted for 21% of the variance in career maturity. Students with learning disabilities who received more instructional accommodations had lower levels of career maturity.     

Drittmittel als Performanzindikator der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung

Resources within and between higher education and research institutions are increasingly allocated according to scientific performance. Evaluation exercises and the measurement of research performance take on a new role in this context. Third party research income is a performance indicator which is rather easy to measure and is used in most of the new performance-based evaluation procedures. This paper sets out to scrutinize the meaning and validity of third party research income. We studied research teams from three different research fields with a mixed quantitative / qualitative approach. The focus is on the causal relations between institutional / input indicators, third party research income as another input indicator, and a variety of output indicators of scientific production. An important result is that third party money has a positive effect on performance only below a certain and discipline-specific threshold. Further analysis shows that output performance is to a great extent field-specific. The context conditions for scientific production differ greatly, so that comparative performance assessments are only valid within homogeneous research fields. Another important result is that output performance is multidimensional and cannot be measured by bibliometric indicators only. These findings have implications for the rationality of the evaluation assessment exercises as well as for the funding decisions of science foundations, ministries of science and — increasingly, the heads of universities and departments. These topics are discussed in the last chapter as well as the implications for further research.     

On the Limitations of Redundancies in the Improvement of System Reliability

Some program managers share a common belief that adding a redundant component to a system reduces the probability of failure by half. This is true only if the failures of the redundant components are independent events, which is rarely the case. For example, the redundant components may be subjected to the same external loads. There is, however, in general a decrease in the failure probability of the system. Nonetheless, the redundant element comes at a cost, even if it is less than that of developing the first one when both are based on the same design. Identical parts save the most in terms of design costs, but are subjected to common failure modes from possible design errors that limit the effectiveness of the redundancy. In the development of critical systems, managers thus need to decide if the costs of a parallel system are justified by the increase in the system's reliability. NASA, for example, has used redundant spacecraft to increase the chances of mission success, which worked well in the cases of the Viking and Voyager missions. These two successes, however, do not guarantee future ones. We present here a risk analysis framework accounting for dependencies to support the decision to launch at the same time a twin mission of identical spacecraft, given incremental costs and risk-reduction benefits of the second one. We illustrate this analytical approach with the case of the Mars Exploration Rovers launched by NASA in 2003, for which we had performed this assessment in 2001.     

Debt management in a small open economy: A theoretical and an empirical study for Belgium

This article analyzes the effects of debt management and its consequence for the control of base money in a small open economy (Belgium). The study compares the effects obtained from a small theoretical model with the results of a larger empirical model.The theoretical model focuses on the financing of government by money operation, on the bond rate, and on the international reserve of the Central Bank.The empirical model is a medium-term one, including the demand and the supply sectors of the economy and permitting simultaneous analysis of real and financial variables.The effects of an endogeneous or exogenous debt management have been studied by numerical simulation of modification in the public expenditure, the world trade, and the discount rate.