A PLURALITY MAXIMIZING APPROACH TO THE ALLOCATION OF CAMPAIGN RESOURCES

An important problem in the planning of political campaigns is the allocation of resources to precincts and other geographical voting units in order to maximize a candidate's plurality. Essentially, parties may increase candidate plurality by engaging in registration drives, midcampaign activities such as canvassing and candidate appearances, and get-out-the-vote drives. Based on previous work which has related voter response to party identification, the authors develop a model for the optimal allocation of campaign resources to these activities. The computational feasibility of the solution procedure is made possible by a decomposition across activities.     

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in asymmetric vector autoregressive models

The estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is sensitive to model misspecifications, resulting to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This article extends the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates, a robustness procedure in cross-section data, to a vector time-series that is estimated using a large number of asymmetric VAR models. The proposed procedure was applied to simulated data from various forms of model misspecifications. The results of the simulation suggest that, under misspecification problems, particularly if an important variable and moving average (MA) terms were omitted, the proposed procedure gives robust results and better forecasts than the automatically selected equal lag-length VAR model.     

Alternative tests for heteroscedasticity of disturbances:a comparative study

This paper presents three small sample tests for testing the heteroscedasticity among regression disturbances. The power of these tests are compared with two of the leading tests for this hypothesis, one by Goldfeld and Quandt [5] and the other by Theil [17]. We also provide a heuristic method of selecting the number of middle observations to be deleted for the Goldfeld-Quandt type of tests.     

Urinary Excretion of Chromium Following Ingestion of Chromite-Ore Processing Residues in Humans: Implications for Biomonitoring

Biomonitoring programs for urinary chromium (Cr) typically attempt to evaluate occupational exposure via the inhalation route. This study investigated whether Cr can be detected in the urine of people following the ingestion of soils that contain relatively high concentrations of chromium in chromite ore processing residue (COPR). To evaluate the reasonableness of using urinary monitoring to assess environmental exposure, six volunteers ingested 400 mg of soil/day (low-dose group), two others ingested 2.0 g of soil/day (high-dose group) for 3 consecutive days, and one person ingested a placebo on each of 3 days. The soil and COPR mixture contained concentrations of total chromium (Cr) and hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] of 103 ± 20 and 9.3 ± 3.8 mg/kg, respectively. Therefore, the low-dose group ingested 41 μg Cr/day [including 3.7 μg Cr(VI)] and the high-dose group ingested 206 μg Cr/day [including 18.6 μg Cr(VI)] on each of 3 consecutive days. All urine samples were collected and analyzed individually for total Cr on the day prior to dosing, during the 3 days of dosing, and up to the first void 48 h after the last dose. No significant increases in urinary Cr excretion were found when background excretion data were compared with data following each of the 3 days of dosing or in daily mean urine concentrations of the high- vs the low-dose groups. It appears that Cr present in a soil and COPR mixture at Cr doses up to 200 μg/day is not sufficiently bioavailable for biomonitoring of urine to be informative. These results are consistent with previously published findings suggesting that incidental exposure to dusts and soils containing comparable levels of Cr will not result in increased concentrations of Cr in urine.     

Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

Trust,Sexual Trust,and Sexual Health: An Interrogative Review

Trust is experienced almost constantly in all forms of social and interpersonal relationships, including sexual relationships, and may contribute both directly and indirectly to sexual health. The purpose of this review is to link three aspects of trust to sexual health: (1) the role of trust in sexual relationships; (2) the role of trust in sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention, particularly condom use; and (3) the relevance of trust in sexual relationships outside of the traditional model of monogamy. The review ends with consideration of perspectives that could guide new research toward understanding the enigmas of trust in partnered sexual relations in the context of sexual and public health.     

The influence of ‘topic and resource’ on some aspects of social theorising

Developments in sociological theory since the 1960s have been responses to disciplinary problems rather than changes in fashion. The problem of topic and resource—where sociology has to use everyday understandings and practices as study resources even though they are legitimate topics of enquiry—has been an important and sometimes neglected spur to many of these developments. The turn to discourse, conversation analysis and the rise of Bourdieu's reflexivity are all attempts to address the problem, but each is shown to be unsatisfactory in different ways. In summary, they seek to address the issue as requiring either a principled methodological or a principled theoretical solution, and neither approach is capable of comprehensively addressing the matter. It is argued that these ‘solutions’ depend, in turn, on one of two particular construals of what the ‘problem’ consists in, neither of which is necessary or coherent. Each, it is argued, depends on a philosophical trick: making language out to need formal improvement (the Bertrand Russell trick) or introducing inappropriate scepticism to everyday life (the René Descartes trick). It is suggested that treating topic and resource not as a problem but as something which opens up new areas of investigation successfully deflates the issue and avoids unnecessary theoretical and methodological contortions.     

Some Cautions on the Measurement of User Information Satisfaction*

User information satisfaction (UIS) is important because of its potential effects on MIS department goals, quality of user work life, and extent of voluntary usage of systems. Reliable measurement of UIS is important for providing evaluative information for both researchers and practitioners. This study used 92 managers and executives as subjects to compare the test/retest reliability of a widely used, 13-scale UIS instrument together with four summary questions under experimental and control conditions. The summary questions behaved more reliably than the detailed questions for all groups, perhaps because of problems with scale units and origins and with item heterogeneity. This suggests that researchers need more reliable measures of UIS and that practitioners need to exercise caution when collecting and interpreting UIS scores.     

The relationship between Black and gay community involvement and HIV-related risk behaviors among Black men who have sex with men

Black gay men must navigate identities and stigmas related to being gay and Black, and report higher HIV incidence relative to their White male counterparts although they report lower rates of drug use and risky sexual behaviors. This study examined whether closeness to the gay or Black community correlated with HIV-related risk and protective behaviors. Data were drawn from uConnect, a population-based cohort study of young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) on Chicago's South Side. The sample consists of 618 Black MSM ranging in age from 16 to 29. Cross-sectional measures for this study include Black and gay community closeness, drug use, sexual risk behaviors, HIV testing, and health promotion behaviors. Closeness with the gay community was associated with greater pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) knowledge as well as participating in health promotion programs along with higher rates of transactional sex and having sex under the influence of substances, and increased odds of self-reported HIV seropositivity. Involvement in the Black community was associated with lower odds of reporting being HIV positive. Findings suggest that programs and initiatives are needed to help promote the positive aspects of the Black and gay communities, while minimizing the negative correlates of such involvements.