Psychological Vulnerability and Gambling in Later Life

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Because behavioral problems often emerge from maladaptive coping methods, we investigated whether unmet basic psychological needs evolve toward a level of psychological vulnerability that puts older adults who gamble at risk for becoming problem gamblers. Methods: Data from a community sample of 379 adults ages 60 and above were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Participants responded to items regarding their demographics, gambling frequency, engagement in at-risk gambling behaviors, and the extent to which their basic psychological needs were met. Results: Satisfaction of basic psychological needs among older adults who gamble was negatively associated with their being at risk for developing a gambling problem. Satisfaction of basic psychological needs also mediated the negative effect of socioeconomic status on at-risk gambling behavior. Conclusion: Social workers should become mindful of how older adults, who are confronting psychological vulnerabilities in later life, might well turn to gambling as a maladaptive coping mechanism.As per journal style, abstract must not exceed100 words. Please amend accordingly.     

Klassenspezifische Wahlabstinenz – Spielt das Vertrauen in politische Institutionen eine Rolle?

This article aims at an analysis to what extent class-differences in non-voting—more precisely: non-voting intention—can be explained referring to the factors of trust in institutions. What is the link between a lack of trust in state institutions and the intention to abstain from voting? Are there parallel class differences in all of these aspects? Data base is a cumulated ALLBUS data-set (1984, 1994, 2002, 2008). Results indicate class differences in non-voting intention and trust in political institutions—with lowest scores for lowly-skilled working class. Multivariate models show that class-differences in non-voting intention can be explained only to a rather small extent by class-specific trust in institutions. Looking at the time periods, an increasing distance between lowly-skilled working class and the political system can be recognised.     

Explaining the Early Development and Health of Teen Mothers’ Children1

The transmission of social disadvantage from teenage mothers to their children is well established, but when and why do these disparities emerge in the early life course? Using nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study‐Birth Cohort, this study investigated the relationship between teen childbearing and children’s cognition, behavior, and health from infancy through preschool. Developmental disparities between teenage mothers’ children and others were largely nonexistent at nine months but accumulated with age. Having a teenage mother predicted compromised development across several domains by age four and a half. Our conceptual model expected preexisting disadvantage, ongoing resource disadvantage, and compromised parenting quality to explain the association between teen childbearing and child outcomes. Preexisting social disadvantage accounted for much of this relationship. Financial, social, and material resources in the child’s household partially or fully explained each of the remaining significant relationships between teenage childbearing and child outcomes. Parenting quality explained a smaller proportion of these relationships than did resources, and these factors’ influences were largely independent. Because children of teenage mothers with a modest set of resources were not predicted to have compromised development, resources provided in early childhood may have the potential to reduce developmental disparities for teenage mothers’ children.     

CEO Duality,Agency Costs,and Internal Capital Allocation Efficiency

This study examines the impact of CEO duality on firms’ internal capital allocation efficiency. We observe that when the CEO is also chair of the board, diversified firms make inefficient investments, as they allocate more capital to business segments with relatively low growth opportunities over segments with high growth opportunities. The adverse impact of CEO duality on investment efficiency prevails only among firms that face high agency problems, as captured by high free cash flows, staggered board structure and low board independence. Depending on the severity of the agency problem, CEO duality is associated with a decrease in industry‐adjusted investment in high‐growth segments of 1% to 2.1% over the following year, relative to that in low‐growth segments. However, CEOs’ equity‐based compensation curbs the negative effect of CEO duality on internal capital allocation efficiency. Overall, the findings of this study offer strong support for the agency theory and postulate the internal capital allocation policy as an important channel through which CEO duality lowers firm value in diversified firms.     

Defining the Universe of Social Enterprise: Competing Metaphors

After more than a decade of research the debate over social enterprise definitions and classifications continues. EMES network in Europe argues that there is an ideal type of social enterprise to which all ventures should aspire. The spectrum approach emphasizes the trade-off between pure profit-making and social impact, locating organizations on this continuum. The Schumpeterians take innovation as its central focus, arguing that the disruption of the status quo is an important differentiator. We argue that each falls short of providing an adequate framework for future research, policy, and practice. Instead we offer an alternative metaphor, that of a social enterprise zoo; many different “animals” combine social and market goals in substantially different ways and each species has distinct environments and needs. Using the metaphor we consider the important components of a meaningful research agenda and examine the place of social entrepreneurs within the social enterprise zoo.     

Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. I show how to address this challenge by using principled model selection techniques to empirically evaluate theoretical mortality models. I test nine models of old-age death rates by fitting them to 360 high-quality data sets on cohort mortality after age 80. Models that allow for the possibility of decelerating death rates tend to fit better than models that assume exponentially increasing death rates. No single model is capable of universally explaining observed old-age mortality patterns, but the log-quadratic model most consistently predicts well. Patterns of model fit differ by country and sex. I discuss possible mechanisms, including sample size, period effects, and regional or cultural factors that may be important keys to understanding patterns of old-age mortality. I introduce mortfit, a freely available R package that enables researchers to extend the analysis to other models, age ranges, and data sources.     

Between a ROC and a hard place: Teaching prevalence plots to understand real world biomarker performance in the clinic

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the ROC curve are widely used in discovery to compare the performance of diagnostic and prognostic assays. The ROC curve has the advantage that it is independent of disease prevalence. However, in this note, we remind scientists and clinicians that the performance of an assay upon translation to the clinic is critically dependent upon that very same prevalence. Without an understanding of prevalence in the test population, even robust bioassays with excellent ROC characteristics may perform poorly in the clinic. While the exact prevalence in the target population is not always known, simple plots of candidate assay performance as a function of prevalence rate give a better understanding of the likely real‐world performance and a greater understanding of the likely impact of variation in that prevalence on translation to the clinic.     

AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF INDIVIDUAL ITEM FORECASTING MODELS

A computer simulation experiment was replicated to correct errors in an earlier paper and to compare seven individual item forecasting models across five different demand patterns. Results confirm previous findings that the better forecasting model depends upon the demand pattern and the forecast horizon, as well as the noise level. Nevertheless, exponential double smoothing emerged as the most robust model.     

Labour‐market Institutions and Macroeconomic Shocks

Abstract. Macroeconomic shocks and labour‐market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of institutions may be appropriate in one epoch and not in another. We derive a dynamic model of labour demand in which the effect of firing costs on labour demand depends on the macroeconomic environment: when the level of macroeconomic activity is expected to drop and/or the trend rate of productivity growth is small, a rise in firing costs affects mainly (and adversely) the hiring decision and not the layoff decision. This makes firing costs harmful to employment when it may appear most appropriate. In contrast, firing costs can raise employment during periods of high growth and positive shocks. Our hypothesis is supported by empirical results using OECD data.