Security level,potential level,expected utility: A three-criteria decision model under risk

Among the violations of expected utility (E.U.) theory which have been observed by experimenters, the violations of its independence axiom is, by far, the most common. It seems that, in many cases, these inconsistencies can be ascribed to the desire for security - called the security factor by L. Lopes (1986) - which makes people attach special importance to the worst outcomes of risky decisions as well as to the sole outcomes of riskless decisions (certainty effect). J.-Y. Jaffray (1988) has proposed a model which generalizes E.U. theory by taking into account this factor and is then able to account for certain violations. However, especially in experiments on choice involving prospective losses, violations of the von Neumann-Morgenstern independence axiom cannot be explained by the security factor alone and have to be partially ascribed to the potential factor (L. Lopes, 1986) which reflects heightened attention to the best outcomes of decisions, especially when the best outcome is the status quo. In this paper, we construct an axiomatic model for subjects taking into account simultaneously or alternatively the security factor and the potential factor. For this, as in Jaffray's model, it has been necessary to weaken not only the standard independence axiom but also the continuity axiom and, in the same time, to reinforce the dominance axiom. In the resulting model, choices are partially determined by the mere comparison of the (security level, potential level) (i.e. the (worst outcome, best outcome)) pairs offered, and completed by the maximization of an affine function of the expected utility, the coefficients of which depend on both the security level and potential level.In this model, a decision maker who (i) has constant marginal utility for money, (ii) is sensitive to the security factor alone in the domain of gains, (iii) is sensitive to the potential factor alone in the domain of losses, behaves as a risk averter for gains and a risk seeker for losses.     

Extreme behaviour for bivariate elliptical distributions

The authors examine the asymptotic behaviour of conditional threshold exceedance probabilities for an elliptically distributed pair (X, Y) of random variables. More precisely, they investigate the limiting behaviour of the conditional distribution of Y given that X becomes extreme. They show that this behaviour differs between regularly and rapidly varying tails.     

女性移民问题与女权主义干预

通过1990年至1991年对蒙特利尔社会服务系统内40位社会干预工作者的调查发现,女性移民最关注的社会问题,主要是移居导致的对传统性别角色分工的质疑和生理、心理健康问题。因此,主张在针对女性移民的社会工作干预实践中,应当加强女权主义干预的应用,以唤起对性别角色分工、妇女面临的社会问题和对妇女的偏见的认识为目标,鼓励干预者在尽可能平等的基础上和被帮助的妇女进行交流,以解决女性移民面临的各种问题。     

Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data

The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian inference highlight the potential of joint models to guide personalized risk-based screening strategies.     

Families' values and attitudes regarding responsibility for the frail elderly: implications for aging policy

This study examines the norms and values associated with care to disabled and frail aging parents, in particular those with regard to the sharing of responsibilities for care between families and formal services, and this within three age cohorts in Quebec, Canada. It is based on a telephone interview of 1,315 people. Factor analysis yielded four factors: (1) family responsibility; (2) uncompromising family obligations; (3) acceptance of services; (4) distrust of services. Analyses of the data indicate that all three age cohorts consider that families have responsibilities for their aging family members, at the same time that they score very high on the acceptance of service scale. This article discusses these seemingly paradoxical results and their implications for aging policy.     

Recession,austerity and gender: A comparison of eight European labour markets

The collapse in GDP brought about by the global economic crisis in 2008 affected female employment less than male employment, whereas austerity has been particularly harsh on women, a gendered impact described in the literature as “he‐cession to sh(e)‐austerity”. This article analyses gendered trends in the labour markets of eight European countries, decomposing quarterly changes in labour participation of women and men and in employment by sector. The “he‐cession to sh(e)‐austerity” scenario is not observed in all countries. Other channels through which austerity policies can jeopardize gender equality and women's rights are identified with reference to a typology of such policies.     

Nested patterns in urban butterfly species assemblages: respective roles of plot management,park layout and landscape features

Increasing numbers of cities are currently developing sustainable policies aimed at promoting urban biodiversity and ecological dynamics through the planning of green networks and the implementation of more sustainable management practices. These human activities can strongly influence environmental factors on which the organization of ecological communities at different scales depends. Thus, it is of fundamental importance to understand the relative impact of local management, green space design and landscape features on the distribution and the abundance of species in urban areas. On the basis of 2 years of butterfly surveys in urban public parks within an extensive Mediterranean metropolitan area, Marseille (South-East France), the aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the effect of these three environmental scales (plot, park, landscape) on the composition and organization of species assemblages. Using variation partitioning and nestedness analysis on ecological data aggregated at plot-level and park-level respectively, we demonstrate the preponderant effect of landscape scale features on urban butterfly assemblages. Our results also highlight an important co-variation of plot management, park layout and urban landscape features, in their interaction with the community structure of urban butterflies. Although there is no significant species-area relationship, significantly nested patterns arise in species composition. Selective colonization appears as a driving force constraining the constitution of species assemblages within the city. However, a prospective study on adjacent more natural areas suggests that biotic limitations, interspecific competition and habitat filtering may play an important role if a larger portion of the urbanization gradient is explored, which remains to be investigated.     

Passion for poker and the relationship with gambling problems: a cross-sectional study

Previous research has shown that poker players spend significant time, large amounts of money and have a high prevalence of gambling problems. While some studies have examined the association between gambling behaviours and passion, none have explored this association specifically among poker players. This study aims to examine the relationships between two types of passion (i.e. harmonious and obsessive) and severity of gambling problems among poker players. A sample of 159 poker players was recruited from across Quebec, Canada. The outcome variable of interest was participants’ scores on the Canadian Pathological Gambling Index and the predictive variable was the Gambling Passion Scale. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors of at-risk poker players. Severity of gambling problems is positively associated with obsessive passion (p < .05). However, harmonious passion is not associated with gambling problems. These results align with previous findings obtained for other gambling activities. Thus, passion could be considered a useful tool when approaching players to talk about risk-taking.     

Peach Trees Grow in the Spaces Between People: Counselling Practices in the Territory of Violence

In this paper the authors reflect on how therapeutic practices wove a community of care and concern with a young man in South Africa who was at risk of anger ruling his life. A counselor and outsider witnesses participated in responding to the problems the young man and his family faced. The authors discuss the steps they took in the therapeutic journey and describe how their personal and professional lives were shaped by this collaboration. This work inspires and sustains their enthusiasm in seeking to understand how to best respond when positioned to counsel.