A set of independent sequential residuals for the multivariate regression model

In this paper a set of residuals for the multivariate linear regression model is introduced. These residuals are shown to be independent with known distributions which do not depend on the parameters of the model. Transformations of the mentioned residuals may be used to construct exact α goodness-of-fit tests for the multivariate regression model.     

International migration in Asia and the Pacific: trends,problems, and recommendations

Like other parts of the world, the Asia and Pacific region has experienced mass movements of the population within and across countries. This report presents the issues and problems discussed, and the recommendations given at the Expert Group Meeting on International Migration in Asia and the Pacific, held in 1984 in Manila. The 9 issues discussed include: 1) available data on international migration are often inconsistent, incomplete, and inadequate for a thorough analysis of the migration situation; 2) the conventional economic theory of migration, and the modern view are different, but related; 3) are internal and international migration 2 distinct phenomena, or are they simply opposite ends of a continuum ranging from short-distance moves within a country to long-distance moves across national boundaries?; 4) permanent migration from Asia and the Pacific to the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand has risen sharply over the the past few years; 5) international migration could have considerable effects on the size, composition, growth, and structure of the populations of both sending and receiving countries; 6) temporary labor migration to the Middle East increased rapidly in the recent past; 7) temporary labor migration has benefits and costs to the home country and to the returning workers and their families; 8) refugee movements within and from Asia have had significant repercussions, not only in the lives of the migrants themselves, but also in the national policies and social structures of the asylum countries; and 9) international migration, if properly controlled and organized, could work for the benefit of every country involved.     

NFP update: researcher cites need to improve instruction

In the Philippines more and more couples are practicing natural family planning (NFP), but there is a need to improve instruction on this method to increase its effectiveness. Calendar rhythm has been the most popular technique of NFP, but failure rates have been high. This could be changed by improved calendar rythm instruction and the introduction of newer, more effective natural techniques like the basal body temperature, cervical mucus, and symptothermal methods. Dr. John E. Laing, in a paper entitled "research on Natural Family Planning in the Philippines," examines the trends in NFP and summarizes major findings of past research related to NFP and the status of current research. It also discusses the implications of such findings for the National Population Program and the needs for current research. Cting World Fertility Survey (WFS) data on 19 developing countries, Laing states that the Philippines is second only to Peru in current and past use of the rhythm method. He also indicates that since the start of the National Population Program in 1971, rhythm has been offered as an official program method. Yet, in the early years of the program rhythm was not promoted as actively as the other family planning methods. In the last few years, program, officials have become more interested in NFP. 1976 National Acceptor Survey (NAS) data showed that rhythm reduced fertility by 78% compared to the condom's 79%, oral contraceptive's 94%, and the IUD's 98%. A comparison of data from the 1972, 1974, and 1976 NAS indicated a decline in continuation rates and an increase in overall pregnancy rates for all methods except rhythm. The overall pregnancy rate of rhythm declined, but there was no significant change in continuation rate. Laing suggests that probably, while the national population program was increasingly recruiting less motivated couples to try other methods, the rhythm acceptors, who were largely self initiated, mantained earlier levels of motivaton. Evidence points to the widespread use of crude formulas that do not take into account individual variations in cycle length. Many users do not even fully understand the mechanism by which rhythm affects fertility. There is also little knowledge among acceptors of the new and more reliable techniques of NFP for identifying the safe and unsafe periods. Despite problems, a considerable number of acceptors still prefer rhythm to other methods. The commission on population has embarked on a solution to some of the problems by committing itself to the training of volunteers of community-based organizations, particlarly lay leaders. 3 large scale projects are planned for this purpose.     

The Lost Inner World of Grantmaking Foundations (or,as Willie Sutton Once Said, “That's Where the Money Is”)

How Foundations Work: What Grantseekers Need to Know About the Many Faces of Foundations, by Dennis P. McIlnay. San Francisco: Jossey‐Bass, 1998. 204 pp., $29.95 cloth. Give and Take: A Candid Account of Corporate Philanthropy, by Reynold Levy. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1999. 235 pp., $24.95 cloth.     

Social skills, competence, and drug refusal efficacy as predictors of adolescent alcohol use

Numerous alcohol and drug abuse prevention trials have included social resistance training as a strategy for reducing early-stage adolescent alcohol use. Evaluations of these trials has shown them to be moderately effective, although the precise impact of the resistance training in comparison to other programmatic features has not been clearly identified. The current study examined the extent to which assertiveness and related social skills, personal competence (perceived cognitive mastery), and refusal efficacy predict alcohol involvement. Males were at greater risk for poor refusal skills and reported higher alcohol involvement. Cross-sectionally, youth characterized by poor social skill development reported lower refusal efficacy, lower grades, poor competence, and more alcohol use. Poor refusal efficacy was associated with more risk-taking, lower grades, less competence, and more alcohol use. Longitudinally, both poor refusal skills and risk-taking were associated with higher alcohol use. High personal competence was associated with lower alcohol use in both the eighth and tenth grades, but had no long-term effects on alcohol use. Findings highlight the close interplay between perceived competence and refusal skill efficacy, both of which should be included as essential components of school-based prevention strategies.     

The Hispanic population: 1990–2000 growth and change

Data sources indicate that there were significant changes in the Hispanic populationbetween 1990 and 2000. Using short-form data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses,we explore changes in the size and distribution of the Latino population. The mostimportant shifts in the Hispanic population are the continued increase of the Latinopopulation in the United States, the significant growth of Hispanic population whoidentify as `other' Latino, and the growing importance of the Midwest and South aspopular receiving areas for Latinos. Additionally, our comparison of householdcomposition over the ten-year period shows little change. We offer potentialexplanations, both substantive and methodological, for these important transitionsin the Latino population over the decade.     

Selection,context, or both? The English fluency of Mexican immigrants in the American Midwest and Southwest

Population Research and Policy Review -     

Breastfeeding as a means of contraception

The University of the Philippines Institute of Public Health (UPIPH) and the Family Health International (FHI) brought together health professionals, nutritionists, and family planning experts from different parts of the world to share and gain insights into the issue of breastfeeding and contraception. The participants met in Manila in 1983 and analyzed research findings on breastfeeding and discussed their implications relevant to nutrition and family planning policies and programs. Studies conducted in several countries show a general decline of breastfeeding practice in both urban and rural areas. The issue appears to be not whether women in developing countries breastfeed their infants but for how long. Popkin cites a study in Thailand, which showed very little change in the proportion of babies ever breastfed but large declines in the duration of breastfeeding from 1969-79. In the Philippines, national surveys since 1973 indicate that mothers throughout the country practice breastfeeding but do so for a relatively short period. Scientific data supporting the folk belief that breastfeeding delays the return of fertility after childbirth is growing. The phenomenon is believed to be governed by a sophisticated control mechanism in the female reproductive system. Some researchers suggest that prolactin may be responsible for the delay of fertility in breastfeeding mothers. In a series of studies done in the Philippines and Australia, researchers Barbara Gross and C.J. Eastman found that high prolactin levels were almost always associated with proloned amenorrhea during lactation. A decline in prolactin concentrations accompanied the resumption of menstruation. Gross and Eastman found evidence of ovulation before the 1st menses in only 1 out of 54 fully breastfeeding mothers, or less than 2%. This implies that at least the first few menses of most fully breastfeeding mothers are not accompanied by ovulation, suggesting that breastfeeding continues to affect fertility even after the resumption of breastfeeding. Zablan's study in the Philippine analyzed the various factors contributing to fertility reduction. Breastfeeding appeared to have the greatest impact on the Filipino woman's level of fertility. Zablan points out that, while breastfeeding is a major factor influencing fertility in the Philippines, it "can be relied upon only to postpone childbearing (and then only at the aggregate level), but not to prevent childbearing altogether." Much work needs to be done to help people realize the value of breastfeeding, to encourage mothers to practice it, and to do so for as long as possible.     

How are policies implemented in children's services? Developing an initial programme theory to evaluate the implementation of the new Child Sexual Exploitation guidance in Wales

Although children's social care is an area rich in guidance, there is very little research looking at the implementation of new policies in the United Kingdom. In this article, we report on the first stage of a realist evaluation of the implementation of the new Safeguarding Children from Child Sexual Exploitation guidance in Wales. We discuss the development of an initial programme theory, for which we conducted semi-structured interviews with practitioners and managers in three local authorities. We developed programme theories across three areas: policy nature and development, implementation plans and organizational context. Findings suggest that, for policies to produce a significant impact on practice, they need to be sufficiently different to social workers' current perceptions of practice. Second, we found that the coordination between national and local policies is critical for successful implementation as contradictions between them might lead to confusion in what local teams should prioritize. Finally, our findings highlight the importance of effective communication of policy changes, as well as a supportive organizational culture to strengthen implementation in local contexts. These findings illustrate the complexity of policy implementation and the need for policymakers to consider the meaningful involvement of local practitioners in national policy development.