Decentralization: The American Experience and its Relevance for Australia

An explanation is sought for the general lack of any significant amount of decentralization in Australia. Major, ongoing trends in the decentralizing of manufacturing industries in the United States are examined, and an attempt is made to identify specific forces attracting industry to country locations and those deterring it. Detailed comparison of the American and Australian situations reveals marked differences in the presence of conditions that either promote or discourage decentralization. It is concluded that, on present indications, the outlook for decentralization in Australia remains unfavourable.     

Reorganization of Psychiatric Services in the Sydney Metropolitan Area

An outline is given of the historical background of current attempts to modernize State psychiatric services in New South Wales. A four-phase developmental pattern in the current decentralization of facilities is described, with special reference to some traditional institutional obstacles to progress in the task of attaining an enhanced relatedness of services to community needs. It is concluded that a major deficiency in the current organization of the State-sponsored services is the lack of systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of programmes established in the past few years.     

Technological forecasting a criticism of the Delphi technique

The author criticises the “Delphi” method of forecasting technological developments by obtaining a consensus of opinion among experts. He argues that the problem is not to forecast what might happen, but rather to decide what should happen and he suggests improvements in the Delphi technique which would change it from an ad hoc method old crytal ball gazing” into a system for continuous consultation among “responsible organizations”.     

THE EFFECT OF RETAIL PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES ON SALES*

This article reports the formulation and results of a multiple equation econometric model to relate retail sales by brand and package size to retail promotional variables for a branded, frequently purchased grocery product. Primary emphasis is placed on the formulation of the model as opposed to the results obtained from its use.     

The New Jersey performance management system: a state system and uses of simple measures.

The New Jersey Performance Management System (PMS) is a major mechanism used by the leadership of the New Jersey Division of Mental Health and Hospitals to contract for, monitor and manage community mental health services. The goal of PMS is to foster proactive, data-based management via sound assessment of multi-dimensional performances, equitable distribution of resources and introduction of incentives. This paper describes PMS, its components, implementation, and limitations.     

RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE RISK CHARACTERISTICS*

This paper applies discriminant analysis to a relatively large sample of residential mortgages-some of which have defaulted or have been foreclosed and others of which have remained untroubled at least until the date of the last observation-in an attempt to derive a function which would allow mortgage lenders to increase their accuracy of predicting mortgage difficulty. From the data available for testing, no improvement in predictability is obtained, because it is thought that the data may already have been badly biased by the screening process of the loan officers which had already taken place and by the post-loan origination nature of the important variables in mortgage difficulty. The latter is confirmed by discriminant models of post-origination variables which are successful. It is concluded that changes in home value, changes in mortgagor income, mortgage assumption, and regional economic considerations are the major explanations of mortgage difficulty.