Approximation of power in multivariate analysis

We consider the calculation of power functions in classical multivariate analysis. In this context, power can be expressed in terms of tail probabilities of certain noncentral distributions. The necessary noncentral distribution theory was developed between the 1940s and 1970s by a number of authors. However, tractable methods for calculating the relevant probabilities have been lacking. In this paper we present simple yet extremely accurate saddlepoint approximations to power functions associated with the following classical test statistics: the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the general linear hypothesis in MANOVA; the likelihood ratio statistic for testing block independence; and Bartlett's modified likelihood ratio statistic for testing equality of covariance matrices.     

Hopes and Fears: Teenage Mothers’ Experiences of Intimate Partner Violence

Research has shown that pregnancy and motherhood increase the risk of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) — physical, sexual and emotional — in relationships. Much of this research, however, explores this issue in relation to adults and little attention has been given to the experiences of pregnant teenagers or teenage mothers in violent relationships. This paper focuses on three main areas to explore this, disadvantage, sexual negotiations and stigma, and draws upon interviews conducted by the authors with 16 teenage mothers in the UK as part of a wider study about IPV in the relationships of disadvantaged young people.     

ENVIRONMENTALISM,STIMULUS, AND INEQUALITY REDUCTION THROUGH INDUSTRIAL POLICY: DID CASH FOR CLUNKERS ACHIEVE THE TRIFECTA?

The 2009 American Cash for Clunkers program, which subsidized consumers who scrapped old vehicles and purchased new vehicles, was promoted by appealing to multiple constituencies. We evaluate the policy and alternatives according to its stated goals: emissions reductions, economic stimulus, and reducing inequality. We calibrate a dynamic partial equilibrium portfolio model to match consumer expenditure data from 1998 to 2011 focusing on heterogeneity across cars and trucks. We find the program generated $0.17 in environmental benefits, $0.28 in consumer surplus, and $0.31 in net discounted additional spending per subsidy dollar. Since subsidies largely went to middle-income infra-marginal consumers, the program exacerbated consumption inequality. We evaluate alternative policy designs and find no policy which simultaneously improves all outcomes. (JEL H23, L52, L92, D63)     

Autocratic leaders and authoritarian followers revisited: A review and agenda for the future

Despite a long history within the field of leadership, the subject of authoritarianism and how it influences leadership and leadership processes has been neglected in recent decades. However, recent global events make it clear that a better understanding of authoritarianism is needed and that leadership researchers would benefit from a renewed interest in studying why followers embrace autocratic leaders. The nature of authoritarian character, how authoritarian values develop, and how it is measured will be discussed. We will also review autocratic leadership, the factors that make it more likely, its consequences for followers, and the moderators of its effects. A future research agenda for the study of authoritarian character and autocratic leadership will be provided.     

Civil Society Organizations and the Enduring Role of Religion in Promoting Democratic Engagement

As Tocqueville observed the emergence of democracy in the USA, he noted the central role religion played in undergirding democratic life. Nearly 200 years later, it is unclear whether religion continues to possess sufficient capacity to promote democratic engagement. This study links organizational theory with research on the structural and cultural characteristics of civil society organizations (CSOs) to assess the current impact of religion on democracy. It analyzes original data from a national study of politically oriented CSOs to determine whether drawing on structural characteristics of religious congregations and cultural elements of religion helps the organizations promote democratic engagement. The analysis finds a positive relationship between organizations that incorporate structural and cultural forms of religion and their organizing capacity, political access, and mobilizing capacity. These findings suggest that religion, mediated by congregations and religious culture, retains sufficient civic vitality to help politically oriented CSOs foster democratic engagement.     

Deliberate Trust and Intuitive Faith: A Dual‐Process Model of Reliance

Drawing on the dual process framework from social and cognitive psychology, this paper reconciles two distinct conceptualizations of trust prevalent in the literature: “rational” calculative and irrational “affective” or normative. After critically reviewing previous attempts at reconciliation between these distinctions, we argue that the notion of trust as “reliance” is the higher order category of which “deliberate trust” and “intuitive faith” are subtypes. Our revised approach problematizes the conflation of epistemic uncertainty with phenomenological uncertainty while providing sound footing for a key sociological insight: that reliance on the routine social order is both the cognitive default and based on substantial practical evidence. We develop two broad suggestions for future research from these implications: (1) sociological research should examine the role of intuitive faith—as opposed to deliberate trust—in late modern societies, and (2) analysts should challenge the role of deliberate trust as the “modal” form of reliance in contemporary research.     

可持续发展的障碍：越权的环境事件

为当代人带来好处的人为环境变化将会给后代人造成可预见的危害。因为“时滞效应”,这些环境变化产生的利弊在代际之间的分配极为殊异。包括生物多样性丧失和全球气候变化等,一些全球最大的环境问题就是如此。对于西方国家的政府而言,这些问题的棘手性不仅在于在实践中如何避免不受欢迎的政策选择,而且还是自由民主制的一个理论问题。当前的政治合法性概念授权政府依据当代公民的而不是后代公民的利益而采取行动。一个自由民主制的政府无权推行有益于后代人利益的政策,因为如果这样做会对当代选民产生束缚。这样做就是政府的越权——超越了决策的合法范围。结果就是所有环境事件几乎都超越了政府解决问题的权限,成为越权（ultra vires）的环境事件。可持续发展概念体现了代际公平,在这个意义上,当前的政治合法性概念就是在阻碍可持续发展。