Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

Introduction of a child sexual abuse policy in a health district

SUMMARY. Three one day workshops for 40 senior clinical staff were held to introduce a new Operational Policy on Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) and to provide them with a teaching package to enable them to run ‘cascade’ teaching sessions for other staff and colleagues. Part I of this paper describes an evaluation of the workshop; Part II describes an evaluation of the cascade The workshop evaluation showed that knowledge about CSA and policy issues was already good, but although that knowledge did improve after the workshop, attitudes about sexual behaviour were not changed by the workshop. Evaluation of the cascade also showed an increase in knowledge after the dissemination exercise     

Technological forecasting a criticism of the Delphi technique

The author criticises the “Delphi” method of forecasting technological developments by obtaining a consensus of opinion among experts. He argues that the problem is not to forecast what might happen, but rather to decide what should happen and he suggests improvements in the Delphi technique which would change it from an ad hoc method old crytal ball gazing” into a system for continuous consultation among “responsible organizations”.     

Iterated full partitions

Algebraic calculations that depend upon a full partition can be automated through the use of an operator P for the derivation of such a partition. Calculations that require the repeated use of P are automated by simply iterating the operator. The resulting output is general and contains sufficient structure to identify the result of a calculation for a variety of settings.     

This is not a race, this is a farce: Formula One and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway tire crisis

Formula One is the most technologically advanced and financially lucrative form of motorsport in the world with global audiences in the billions over the course of a season. A highly unusual and potentially deadly set of events took place during the Friday practice for the sixth annual United States Grand Prix at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Controversy and blame soon followed. Using Benoit's public relations and image restoration strategy framework, this paper examines the different strategies employed during the crisis by the Formula One teams, Michelin, the Federation Internationale De L’Automobile, Formula One Management, and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. An examination of the crisis situation at the United States Grand Prix allows this study to expand Benoit's initial framework into sport as well as examining the implications for public relations and image repair strategies.     

Household Headship Among Married Women: The Roles of Economic Power, Education, and Convention

Household headship historically has been equated with being the main economic provider of the household, a position usually occupied by men. This paper uses a change in the United States Census definition of household headship to examine whether headship for married women is associated with being the primary breadwinner in a marriage versus other non-economic explanations. According to microdata from the 1990 United States Census, women who are the main income providers in a marriage are much more likely to be household heads than women in co-provider marriages. There also is support for an egalitarian ideology explanation; that is, when both spouses are highly educated, the wife is more likely than the husband to be household head net of her relative economic independence in that marriage. Yet the force of convention remains strong given the low prevalence of headship among married women. The new census definition was meant partly to reflect the changing economic status of women. However, the reality is that conventional gender behaviors persist in household headship.     

Adoption and Antisocial Personality: Genetic and Environmental Factors Associated with Antisocial Outcomes

The present review critically evaluates evidence from adoption studies on the heritability of antisocial personality, interactions between genetic predispositions and the characteristics of adoptive mothers and fathers, and both the methodological and diagnostic shortcomings of existing studies. The article concludes with directions and suggestions for future research and practice.