INNUMERACY ABOUT MINORITY POPULATIONS

We use a small but nationally representative sample to investigatethe sources of innumeracy regarding the proportion of blacks,Hispanics, and Jews in the U.S. population. In addition to anumber of standard demographic differences, we find that overestimatesare closely related to region as well as to the density of thelocal black/Hispanic population. The extent to which minoritypopulations are perceived as a kind of threat is also relatedto perceived proportions, though the direction of causalitycannot be determined. We discuss the meaningfulness of thesepopulation estimates and speculate on whether trying to improvethem would alter attitudes toward minorities.     

A sea change on the island continent: frameworks for risk assessment,prevention and intervention in child health in Australia

This article overviews prevention and early intervention approaches focusing specifically on their relevance to the health of children and young people in Australia. Australian public health has a sound track record although concealed within the aggregate profile are a number of sub-populations with poorer health indicators. Recognition of this has increased efforts to improve the health of children and young people especially in exploring the impact of social environments within the communities where children are raised. This paper examines emerging research in this area drawing out key lessons and learning from Australian experience in the field of early intervention and prevention in community settings.     

Joint Attention,Self‐Recognition,and Neurocognitive Function in Toddlers

Recent studies have attempted to understand the processes involved in joint attention because of its relevance to both atypical and normal development. Data from a recent study of young children with autism suggests that performance on a delay nonmatch to sample (DNMS) task associated with ventromedial prefrontal functions, but not an A‐not‐B/delayed response task associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was related to joint attention skills (Dawson et al., 2002). Recent research also suggests that joint attention is associated with dorsalmedial brain systems linked to self‐monitoring (Mundy, 2003). This study investigated the relations among joint attention, DNMS, and self‐recognition performance in a longitudinal study of 39 normally developing toddlers from 14 to 18 months. The results indicated that development on the DNMS and self‐recognition tasks, but not a means end task, predicted joint attention at 18 months. Further analysis showed that the model was only significant for initiating joint attention (IJA). The implications of these results for the neuro‐development of IJA are discussed.     

The Ecology of Family Guidance in Low-Income Mexican-American and European-American Families*

This two-part study applied an ecocultural perspective to socialization of daily and long-term goals in low-income Mexican-American and European-American families with children in third, fifth, and seventh grades. The first part of the study examined family members' participation and parents' socialization goals and guidance strategies for their children's daily household chores and homework activities. The second part of the study examined parents' long-term aspirations and guidance strategies for their children's educational, vocational, and moral development. For daily activities, results showed that in Mexican-American families both parents and siblings played important roles, whereas in European-American families parents were the primary socialization agents. As predicted, in both groups parents' expertise influenced their guidance strategies. Finally, Mexican-American and European-American parents differed in their relative endorsement of gender, relational, and self-reliance goals for household chores. For long-term goals, parents in both groups held high educational, vocational, and moral aspirations for their children. However, some parents of seventh-graders had lower educational and vocational aspirations than those of fifth- and third-graders. Although expertise consistently influenced Mexican-American parents' guidance strategies, the pattern for European-American parents was mixed. The discussion highlights between- and within-group differences in daily and long-term socialization practices with an emphasis on resources and vulnerabilities in the families.     

Improving on truncated linear estimates of exponential and gamma scale parameters

We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of an exponential or a gamma distribution under squared error loss when the scale parameter θ is known to be greater than some fixed value θ₀. Natural estimators in this setting include truncated linear functions of the sufficient statistic. Such estimators are typically inadmissible, but explicit improvements seem difficult to find. Some are presented here. A particularly interesting finding is that estimators which are admissible in the untruncated problem which take values only in the interior of the truncated parameter space are found to be inadmissible for the truncated problem.     

Leslie matrix models

A review of the Leslie matrix model theory and its literature 1941-1987 is presented. The point of view is that of a mathematician who focuses on the parts of the theory which are relevant to demography. Works of a decidedly applied nature are not dealt with.     

The U.S. legalization program: a preliminary final report

The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 made 4 types of aliens eligible to receive legalization benefits: 1) those who resided "continuously" in the US since January 1, 1982; 2) those who had worked in the US perishable-crop agriculture for 90 "man-days" in specified time periods (Special Agricultural Workers [SAWS]); 3) those who were in the US since before January 1, 1972; and 4) those classified as Cuban/Haitian entrants and who had been in the US since January 1, 1982. Estimates of the number of aliens eligible for legalization, not including SAWS, ranges from 1.834 million to 2.56 million. Estimates of undercounts of undocumented aliens are 10% for those who entered before 1975 and 37.5% for those who arrived after 1975. Other refinements in the estimates of undocumented aliens include adjustments for 1) ethnic group and location, 2) the growth of the undocumented population between the census date and the legalization eligibility date under IRCA, and 3) emigration and deportation rates. Out of the 1,581,800 applicants entered into the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) computers (from a total of 2.15 million applicants) as of May 20, 1988, 73.7% were Mexican nationals. Only 5 other countries contributed more than 1%: El Salvador (6.5%), Haiti (2.3%), Guatemala (2.2%), the Philippines (1%), and Colombia (1%). The Mexican percentage was unexpectedly high, perhaps because the legalization had been much more successful in the Southwest than anywhere else in the country. Reasons that Mexicans have a higher legalization participation rate than other nationalities include 1) the distant eligibility date; 2) ethnic differences among non-Mexican nationalities; 3) particularly in the northeast, fears of exposing one's illegal status to INS; 4) the difficulty of information reaching ethnic communities, 5) the reluctance of those already undergoing the naturalization process to risk the legalization process; and 6) the reluctance of employees to admit employment of undocumented aliens. In the end, more than 90% of applicants are expected to be granted temporary resident alien status (and about 70% of agricultural workers), for a total of more than 2 million people. Researchers estimate that 2.5 - 3 million more persons remain in an undocumented status in the US.     

The impact of international migration on fertility: an econometric population model

The authors develop an econometric model to examine the impact of migration on fertility in Greece in the period 1968-1986. In the model, the fertility equation is considered within a simultaneous equation system, and international migration is included as an explanatory factor of both fertility and per capita income. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Policies over time and pareto optimality

This paper is concerned with sequences of policies that occur over time in voting models and planning procedures. The framework for our analysis includes assumptions that are satisfied by models in the corresponding literatures, together with other standard assumptions for microeconomic analysis that involve time. The starting point for our analyses is the prespective that results from combining the following (widely held) views: 1) certain voting models and planning procedures can be interpreted as being non-tatonnement or sequential processes (where each policy in the sequence that is generated is actually experienced by voters or consumers) and 2) an alternative being Pareto optimal in any given period (temporal Pareto optimality) is the appropriate efficiency criterion only if the alternative is the final outcome from a tatonnement process-and that, otherwise, one should examine the efficiency of the entire path (using intertemporal Pareto optimality). Our first observation about the planning literature is that is has (by and large) neglected the efficiency criterion that is appropriate for the discrete-time procedures that can be interpreted as non-tatonnement or sequential processes-and that, what's more, such trajectories will (in general) fail to meet this criterion. Our second observation identifies some results that can be used to establish that some of these trajectories will at least be ultimately intertemporally Pareto optimal. In our discussion of voting theory, we review Buchanan's opposition to requiring (social) choice consistency for voting procedures-and his argument for this position on (Pareto) efficiency grounds. We then consider voting procedures that can be interpreted as non-tatonnement or sequential processes and arrive at the conclusion that, in these cases, (i) majority rule cycles are intertemporally Pareto inefficient and (ii) achieving intertemporal Pareto optimality requires choice consistency. We then go on to show that related observations apply to Kramer's normative conclusions about his dynamical model of political equilibrium — and identify some further references where similar observations apply. In the final part of our discussion of voting models, we arrive at the further conclusion that, in the most relevant cases, a trajectory that stays in the temporal Pareto set is not necessarily more desirable (on efficiency grounds) than one that doesn't.This paper has been improved by helpful comments and suggestions that have been provided by Kenneth Arrow, an anonymous referee, and the editor who handled the paper.Peter Coughlin gratefully acknowledges financial support provided by (i) National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8409352, and (ii) the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford (with support from National Science Foundation Grant No. BNS-8700864 and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation).