Risk Assessment Based on Financial Data: Market Response to Airline Accidents

The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a surprise response and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (full-cost information response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the full-cost information response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.     

Conditional Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decision Making: The Case of WIPP

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely—or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible—does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.     

Intercultural literacy dialogue: international assessment moderation in early childhood teacher education

ABSTRACT

This research reports intercultural dialogue of meaning making in literacy by lecturers, engaged with an assessment moderation process of early childhood education (ECE) preservice teacher education across Australia, New Zealand and Sweden. The purpose of the dialogue was to inform pedagogical and conceptual knowledge in their courses. The research question is: How does intercultural dialogue inform teacher education literacy practices? Methods include (1) a blind assessment review process using 30 examples from ‘high’ to ‘low’ exemplars of ECE students’ literacy assessment annotations, some from each country, and (2) textual analysis of intercultural student feedback and reflection from student forum comments and, semi-structured reflexive interviews with students about the assessment moderation process. Rich academic reflections on the data have led to our recommendations that the conceptual framework of intercultural praxis could be applied in early childhood preservice teacher education practice. Further, we suggest there are increased possibilities for the use of intercultural literacy with ECE preservice student teachers using virtual and explicit collaborations and texts as explained in this research.     

Shift scheduling for tank trucks

In this paper we deal with shift scheduling of tank trucks for a small oil company. Given are a set of tank trucks with different characteristics and a set of drivers with different skills. The objective is to assign a feasible driver to every shift of the tank trucks such that legal and safety restrictions are satisfied, the total working times of the drivers are within desired intervals, requested vacation of the drivers is respected and the trucks are assigned to more favored drivers. We propose a two-phase solution algorithm which is based on a mixed integer linear programming formulation and an improvement procedure. Computational results are reported showing that the algorithm is able to generate feasible schedules in a small amount of time.     

Project Re•Vision: disability at the edges of representation

The representational history of disabled people can largely be characterized as one of being put on display or hidden away. Self-representations have been a powerful part of the disability rights and culture movement, but recently scholars have analysed the ways in which these run the risk of creating a ‘single story’ that centres the experiences of white, western, physically disabled men. Here we introduce and theorize with Project Re?Vision, our arts-based research project that resists this singularity by creating and centring, without normalizing, representations that have previously been relegated to the margins. We draw from body becoming and new materialist theory to explore the dynamic ways in which positionality illuminates bodies of difference and open into a discussion about what is at stake when these stories are let loose into the world.     

Ethical aspects of vulnerability in research

In connection with research on humans, the term ??vulnerability?? is only appropriate to identify the special need for protection of certain sections of the population and individuals, if this term refers to the additional risk of certain groups of subjects. Authors who focus on the additional risk suffering of a subject group when defining vulnerability succeed in considering the specific worthiness of protection in a context-sensitive way. The attempt to define the risk?Cbenefit assessment for vulnerable subject groups on a binding basis faces considerable difficulties. This assessment depends both on the research situation and on the test subject. The normative aspect of this decision could be solved by referring to Rawl??s decision model of an original position. In cases where there is no benefit for the subject, arguments in the discussion of the risks and benefits that are based on a ??group or overall benefit?? and an ??objective interest,?? cannot be fully sustained.     

Supporting mothers: Issues in a Community Mothers Programme

This article describes a community support programme which implicitly challenges the assumption that the existence of a partner and local kin obviates the need to support women when they come home from hospital with a new baby. Implicit in the programme is the idea that support by mothers, of mothers, validates the activity of child care and is one way of facilitating the child's development. This programme was successful in terms of its perceived impact on both the providers and the recipients' ability to parent, in terms of providing training and support for providers, and in terms of strengthening links within the community and between the providers and the statutory and voluntary sectors. However, since the very model of care was a 'paid volunteering' one which perpetuated women's economic dependency it is a moot point whether it also perpetuated the devaluing of women's work. The subsequent mainstreaming of the programme and its inclusion of teenage lone mothers, who are likely to be co-parenting with their own mothers, raises still further questions about the complex and ambiguous nature of support for women. En este artículo se describe un programa de apoyo comunitario que, de manera implícita, pone en tela de juicio la creencia de que al tener una pareja o algun familiar muy cercano, las mujeres ya no necesitan ayuda cuando vuelven a casa después de tener un bebé. Implícita en el programa se encuentra la idea de que, el apoyo por parte de las madres de las madres da valor a la actividad del cuidado de niños y es a la vez una manera de facilitar el desarrollo de la niñez. Este programa tuvo mucho éxito en cuanto al impacto percibido tanto por aquellas que proporcionaban y recibían el apoyo de madres, en cuanto proporcionaban entrenamiento y apoyo para las proveedores debido al fortalecimiento de lazos con la comunidad, y entre las proveedoras y los sectores voluntarios y estatales. Sin embargo ya que este programa era un voluntariado pagado, el cual perpetúa la dependencia económica de la mujer, cabe preguntarse si también perpetúa la devalorización del trabajo de la mujer. La subsecuente parte principal del programa y la incorporación de madres adolescentes solas, quienes obtienen la ayuda de sus propias madres en el cuidado del bebé, provoca aun más interrogantes con respecto a la compleja y ambigua naturaleza de la ayuda a mujeres.     

Disability terminology and the emergence of ‘diffability’ in Indonesia

The labelling of disabilities in Indonesian society and legislation has changed over time. More recently, the grassroots has used the term difabel to allude to the conceptualisation of ‘differently able’. The persistence of the grassroots in defending the term difabel, while in the UNCRPD ratification era the elites have turned to using disabilitas, alerts us to the power of labels and the role they play. This article provides a critique of the issue of language and the labelling of people with impairments and how it influences the paradigm of policy and service responses, and thereby the future role of differently able people. Given the background on the evolved disability terminology, this article suggests that difabel should also be adopted into broader English usage (i.e. ‘diffability’). Such a term provides a more positive characterisation of people with impairments and reminds us of the importance of emphasising abilities and acknowledging differences.