Identifying Environmental and Social Factors Predisposing to Pathological Gambling Combining Standard Logistic Regression and Logic Learning Machine

Identifying potential risk factors for problem gambling (PG) is of primary importance for planning preventive and therapeutic interventions. We illustrate a new approach based on the combination of standard logistic regression and an innovative method of supervised data mining (Logic Learning Machine or LLM). Data were taken from a pilot cross-sectional study to identify subjects with PG behaviour, assessed by two internationally validated scales (SOGS and Lie/Bet). Information was obtained from 251 gamblers recruited in six betting establishments. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle and cognitive-related factors, and type, place and frequency of preferred gambling were obtained by a self-administered questionnaire. The following variables associated with PG were identified: instant gratification games, alcohol abuse, cognitive distortion, illegal behaviours and having started gambling with a relative or a friend. Furthermore, the combination of LLM and LR indicated the presence of two different types of PG, namely: (a) daily gamblers, more prone to illegal behaviour, with poor money management skills and who started gambling at an early age, and (b) non-daily gamblers, characterised by superstitious beliefs and a higher preference for immediate reward games. Finally, instant gratification games were strongly associated with the number of games usually played. Studies on gamblers habitually frequently betting shops are rare. The finding of different types of PG by habitual gamblers deserves further analysis in larger studies. Advanced data mining algorithms, like LLM, are powerful tools and potentially useful in identifying risk factors for PG.     

A Comparison Between Probabilistic and Dempster‐Shafer Theory Approaches to Model Uncertainty Analysis in the Performance Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositories

Model uncertainty is a primary source of uncertainty in the assessment of the performance of repositories for the disposal of nuclear wastes, due to the complexity of the system and the large spatial and temporal scales involved. This work considers multiple assumptions on the system behavior and corresponding alternative plausible modeling hypotheses. To characterize the uncertainty in the correctness of the different hypotheses, the opinions of different experts are treated probabilistically or, in alternative, by the belief and plausibility functions of the Dempster‐Shafer theory. A comparison is made with reference to a flow model for the evaluation of the hydraulic head distributions present at a radioactive waste repository site. Three experts are assumed available for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated with the hydrogeological properties of the repository and the groundwater flow mechanisms.     

The Effect of a Longer Eligibility to a Labour Market Programme for Dismissed Workers

Liste di Mobilità is an Italian programme targeted to dismissed workers. It combines a ‘passive’ and an ‘active’ component. Eligibility duration varies with the worker's age at dismissal. Using a new panel data set, we identify the impact of extending the duration of eligibility on re‐employment probabilities and wages, via Regression Discontinuity Design. We validate the design by a set of overidentification tests. For most subgroups we find no significant impact, with a peculiar pattern for women entitled to monetary benefits. A major negative impact emerges for workers aged 50 or more granted monetary benefits, likely due to the fact that they can use the programme as a bridge to retirement.     

Transnational Twist: Pecuniary Remittances and the Socioeconomic Integration of Authorized and Unauthorized Mexican Immigrants in Los Angeles County1

Annual U.S.‐Mexico pecuniary remittances are estimated to have more than doubled recently to at least $10 billion ‐ augmenting interest among policymakers, financial institutions, and transnational migrant communities concerning how relatively poor expatriate Mexicans sustain such large transfers and the impact on immigrant integration in the United States. We employ the 2001 Los Angeles County Mexican Immigrant Residency Status Survey (LAC‐MIRSS) to investigate how individual characteristics and social capital traditionally associated with integration, neighborhood context, and various investments in the United States influenced remitting in 2000. Remitting is estimated to have been inversely related to conventional integration metrics and influenced by community context in both sending and receiving areas. Contrary to straight‐line assimilation theories and more consistent with a transnational or nonlinear perspective, however, remittances are also estimated to have been positively related to immigrant homeownership in Los Angeles County and negatively associated with having had public health insurance such as Medicaid.     

Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

This is a perspective article on foundational issues in risk assessment and management. The aim is to discuss the needs, obstacles, and challenges for the establishment of a renewed, strong scientific foundation for risk assessment and risk management suited for the current and future technological challenges. The focus is on (i) reviewing and discussing the present situation and (ii) identifying how to best proceed in the future, to develop the risk discipline in the directions needed. The article provides some reflections on the interpretation and understanding of the concept of “foundations of risk assessment and risk management” and the challenges therein. One main recommendation is that different arenas and moments for discussion are needed to specifically address foundational issues in a way that embraces the many disciplinary communities involved (from social scientists to engineers, from behavioral scientists to statisticians, from health physicists to lawyers, etc.). One such opportunity is sought in the constitution of a novel specialty group of the Society of Risk Analysis.     

Choosing between alternative classification criteria to measure the labour force state

Summary.  Labour force counting relies on general guidelines that are set by the International Labour Office to classify individuals into three labour force states: employment, unemployment and inactivity. However, the resulting statistics are known to be sensitive to slight variations in operational definitions which are prima facie consistent with the general guidelines. We consider two interpretations of the general guidelines, operationalized by the criterion that is currently followed by Eurostat and a criterion that was followed by the Italian Statistical Office up to 1992. After showing that the labour force statistics resulting from the two criteria differ considerably, we compare individuals whose classification depends on the criterion that is adopted with individuals whose classification is common between criteria to study the boundary between unemployment and inactivity. An application of our strategy is presented using data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, painting a picture neatly against the criterion that is currently followed by Eurostat.     

Cross‐border commuters: How to segment Them? A Framework of Analysis

The removal of barriers to labour mobility and the enhancement of cross‐border mobility are expected to reduce regional disparities by contributing to a more efficient allocation of labour. For some time now, however, researchers have considered borders and cross‐border regions to be marginal zones. Therefore, we contribute to the discussion by providing a qualitative framework for the segmentation of the cross‐border job market, capable of addressing some questions relevant to the management of cross‐border commuting regarding the nature of imbalances that characterize the cross‐border job market and the main factors underpinning the phenomenon. To do so, we focused specifically on the Euroregion “Regio Insubrica”, a cross‐boundary cooperation community between Italy and Switzerland. Nevertheless, the proposed framework may be easily applied to all the existing cross‐border regions across the world in order to help explain the imbalances that exist, and support decision‐makers regarding educational and labour market policies.     

Using the Hybrid Two-Step estimation approach for the identification of second-order latent variable models

The aim of this paper is to define a new approach, called Hybrid Two-Step, to estimate the parameters of a second-order latent variable (LV) model in the case of formative relationships between the first-order and the second-order LVs. In this respect, we introduce the two main approaches to the estimation of second-order constructs through the partial least squares-path modelling: the so-called Repeated Indicators approach and the Two-Step approach. Some criticisms of these methodologies are highlighted and a solution to the issue of the identification of formative second-order constructs is suggested through the adoption of a Hybrid Two-Step approach. A Monte Carlo simulation study aimed at comparing the approach proposed with the traditional ones was performed. Finally, a case study about the passenger satisfaction is presented to show the implementation of the method and to give some comparative empirical results.     

Der Einfluss von Mehrfachmandatstr?gern auf die Unternehmensperformance

Although interlocking directorates are regularly associated with a negative connotation, empirical evidence is as yet insufficient to offer convincing answers about their impact on performance. Contradicting results can mostly be explained both by the use of different theoretical frameworks and value creation measures. In order to shed more light as to what effect busy directors have on shareholder??s wealth, we have developed a two-pillar model explaining the potential contributions of directorship interlocks to value creation within an enlarged corporate governance perspective. The validity of the model has been tested through a panel data analysis of director networks within German Blue Chip corporations over a 5 year period from 2001 to 2005. Empirical tests indicate that the performance effects of interlocks depend on the nature of the board positions occupied. Moreover, statistical modelling confirms the existence of cognitive contributions of interlocked directors and partially shows positive effects on value creation. Finally the study argues in favour of board composition without external executive directors and suggests that a simple reduction of the number of external board positions legally authorized, does not within itself enhance corporate performance.     

Social Presence, Embarrassment, and Nonverbal Behavior

Nonverbal behaviors in response to viewing slides depicting nude males, nude females, erotic couples and neutral pictures, either alone or in the presence of two unfamiliar individuals, were studied in 22 female and 16 male university students. Participants were unaware of being videorecorded. Results revealed discrepancies between self-reported embarrassment and nonverbal behaviors supposedly expressive of embarrassment. Although self-reported embarrassment was higher when certain types of slides were viewed in the presence of others than when they were viewed alone, we observed significantly fewer lip movements, gaze shifts, face touches, downward gazes, and downward head movements in the presence of unfamiliar individuals than in the alone condition. We also compared behaviors during slide exposure and during the inter-slide intervals. For 9 out of 11 coded behaviors, frequencies were significantly higher during inter-slide intervals than during slide presentation. We argue that this is probably due to the fact that visual attention to the slides inhibited nonverbal behaviors. The results cast doubt on the possibility of inferring the internal state of an emotion such as embarrassment by analyzing nonverbal behaviors without taking account of the social setting in which such observations are made.