Is population decentralization lengthening commuting distances?

This study questions the conventional wisdom about how commuting distances change when workers migrate from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas. It does not appear that decentralization yields a more energy-intensive configuration of residences and job locations: we find no indication that this migration lengthens the aggregate distance that workers commute. Some migrants do commute long distances, but their numbers are offset by many more who end up closer to their jobs. Our findings relate to two contrasting views (“sprawl” and “nucleation”) of how workers are becoming repositioned in relation to their jobs as settlement patterns change; the latter view appears more realistic. We briefly discuss policy implications pertaining to alternative transportation modes for commuting, setting priority travel needs in an energy emergency, and telecommunications as a substitute for commuting.     

Rural electrification and fertility change

This article addresses the possible linkage between the spread of electrification in rural areas and subsequent declines in human fertility. Evidence from nine studies in six countries is reviewed and compared. The conclusion from this review is that there is, in fact, some link and that the higher the level of rural electrification the higher is contraceptive prevalence and the lower is the level of fertility. This link appears puzzling at first glance, but the article proposes a conceptual and theoretical framework for interpreting these results and fitting them into accepted theories of fertility. Finally, some important policy implications are discussed and future directions for research indicated.This paper was prepared for a workshop on The Relationship between Rural Electrification and Fertility Decline sponsored by the National Rural Electrical Cooperatives Association and the Population Issues Research Center of Pennsylvania State University. The workshop was held in Washington, D.C. on November 15, 1984. (Copies of a summary of the proceedings of the workshop can be obtained from Mr. Philip P. Costas, International Programs Division, National Rural Electrical Cooperatives Association, 1800 Massachusetts Avenue N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, U.S.A.) The authors received helpful comments on the paper from Richard Bilsborrow, Gretchen Cornwell, Gordon DeJong, Ronald Freedman, and Ozzie Simmons as well as many other participants in the workshop.     

Why was the berdache ridiculed?

Several anthropological explanation of why North American Indian berdaches were riduculed are considered and rejected in favor of the proposal that berdaches were laughed at largely in the context of traditional joking relationships. Consequently, reports that Indians ridiculed berdaches need not be interpreted as evidence that they held negative views of homosexuality.     

Our experience with population censuses in 1953 and 1964]

We have accumulated some valuable experience through 2 successful population censuses in 1953 and 1964. A series of special census committees were established at each administrative level--from central government to local areas. Periodic 2-way telephone communication between higher and lower offices was planned. The census was conducted on the basis of permanent population in 1953 and 1964. A standard time of June 30, midnight was used in both cases. Census items must be clear, easy to use, and standardized. Name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, race, and present address were listed in 1954. Birth date, class, educational level, and occupation were added in 1964. For accurate data census districts and their boundaries must be clearly marked. Registering the whole family by head of household at the nearby temporary census station was found to be convenient, efficient, and accurate. Door-to-door visits by census clerks were also used. To complete such a cumbersome task in a short period of time high-quality census personnel were trained to fully understand the significance, the regulations, and the technical details of the task. Nationwide education and propaganda about the census were important for success. 3 levels of reporting (county, province, and central) in 1953 and 4 levels in 1964 were used to check results and correct mistakes. The announcement of the results to the public after the entire census was completed provided an opportunity for the public to confirm the data and correct mistakes. This process of confirmation is an essential quality control step.     

America's baby boom generation: the fateful bulge

From 1955-64 nearly 42 million births occurred in the U.S., an unprecedented expansion. The roots of the baby boom lie in the universal rush to early marriage and favorable economic climate for the relatively scarce young men born of the Depression cohort. The impact of the boom interrupted a century-long fertility decline. Pro-marriage, pronatalist norms were revived by the Depression cohort who formed families of at least 2 children or more. During the 1960-70's schools, colleges, and universities were built to accomodate the boom and are now excessive for the baby bust cohort. Unemployment and crime rates rose and fell with the passing of the boom babies through late adolescence and early adulthood. In the 1980's, boom babies will be aged 20-30. Demands for housing will be high. Annual birth numbers will increase even if the rate of childbearing hovers below replacement level at about 1.8 per woman. Per capita earnings and overall labor productivity should improve as the boom baby cohort reaches middle age in the 1990s. However, chances for advancement will be fewer. As the cohort reaches retirement age, the over 65 population will double from 31 million in 2000 to almost 60 million in 2030. Although the burden will be somewhat offset by reduced proportions of under 18-year-olds, the ratio of active workers paying Social Security will fall drastically.     

Quality of the urban environment as perceived by residents of slow and fast growth cities

Through the vehicle of the Winnipeg and Edmonton Area Surveys of 1981 this paper compares perceptions of the city by its residents in two cities of dramatically different growth rates, holding constant the region of the country, the size of the city, the time of the analysis and the methodology used. The growth rate did influence the evaluations of the attributes of the city by its residents. However, this evaluation of growth was not a significant contributer to overall satisfaction with the city. While levels of satisfaction with the city were similar in the two cities, the contributing variables differed somewhat.     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.