Interacting multiple try algorithms with different proposal distributions

We introduce a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which is designed to increase the efficiency of a modified multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) sampler. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC literature is twofold. First, the sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by allowing for different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step. Second, we exploit the different proposal distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods and builds connections with the rapidly expanding world of adaptive MCMC. We show the validity of the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the different proposals. The numerical studies show that the interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space leading to higher efficiency than other competing algorithms.     

Absolutely Continuous Copulas with Given Diagonal Sections

Necessary and sufficient conditions are given in order to ensure that a function δ:[0, 1] → [0, 1] is the diagonal section of an absolutely continuous copula. Explicit constructions are provided.     

Stochastic Evolution of Rules for Playing Finite Normal Form Games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments of stochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal form games that arise. It is shown that many of the “folk results” of evolutionary game theory, typically obtained with a fixed game and fixed strategies, carry over to the present environments. The results are also related to some recent experiments on rules and games.      

Designing the venue logistics management operations for a World Exposition

World Expositions, due to their size and peculiar features, pose a number of logistics challenges. This paper aims at developing a design framework for the venue logistics management (VLM) operations to replenish food products to the event site, through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research approaches. First, an in-depth interview methodology, combined with the outcomes of a literature review, is adopted for defining the key variables for the tactical and operational set-up of the VLM system. Second, a quantitative approach is developed to define the necessary logistics resources. The framework is then applied to the case of Milan 2015 World Exposition. It is the first time that such a design framework for a World Exposition is presented: the originality of this research lies in the proposal of a systematic approach that adds to the experiential practices constituting the current body of knowledge on event logistics.     

The Easterlin Paradox in Italy,or the Paradox in Measuring? Define Happiness Before Investigating It

Social Indicators Research - The Easterlin paradox (Easterlin, in: Paul, Reder (eds) Nations and household in economic growth: essay in honor of Moses Abramovitz, Academic Press, New York, 1974),...     

Circadian Rhythms,Sleep, and Cognitive Skills: Evidence From an Unsleeping Giant

This study analyzes the effects of sleep duration on cognitive skills and depression symptoms of older workers in urban China. Cognitive skills and mental health have been associated with sleep duration and are known to be strongly related to economic behavior and performance. However, causal evidence is lacking, and little is known about sleep deprivation in developing countries. We exploit the relationship between circadian rhythms and bedtime to identify the effects of sleep using sunset time as an instrument. Using the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we show that a later sunset time significantly reduces sleep duration and that sleep duration increases cognitive skills and eases depression symptoms of workers aged 45 years and older. The results are driven by employed individuals living in urban areas, who are more likely to be constrained by rigid work schedules. We find no evidence of significant effects on the self-employed, non-employed, or farmers.     

International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets

Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1992), Baxter and Crucini (1995), and Stockman and Tesar (1995) find two major discrepancies between standard international business cycle models with complete markets and the data: In the models, cross‐country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true; and cross‐country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper introduces a friction into a standard model that helps resolve these anomalies. The friction is that international loans are imperfectly enforceable; any country can renege on its debts and suffer the consequences for future borrowing. To solve for equilibrium in this economy with endogenous incomplete markets, the methods of Marcet and Marimon (1999) are extended. Incorporating the friction helps resolve the anomalies more than does exogenously restricting the assets that can be traded.     

Optimal scale in the Italian gas distribution industry using data envelopment analysis

The Italian gas distribution industry presents a high degree of fragmentation. However, the tendency between 1970 and 1998 was a concentration process. Available evidence supports the thesis that local distributors have undertaken a process of scale enlargement. This raises the question of characteristics of returns to scale for such operators as well as the optimal scale at which they should operate. Returns to scale are analysed by data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The results show that the output space in which DMUs attain a high level of scale efficiency is widespread, thus indicating an unexpected return to scale characterisation. Technology shows increasing returns only for the smallest units, but such an effect is rapidly exhausted in favour of a regime of constant returns to scale. The main managerial conclusion is that an improvement of productivity may be reached via an intensification of the merging process involving local distributors operating at a small scale. Moreover, the concentration process appears as an “attainable” objective since the critical dimension, which permits the exploitation of positive returns to scale, is quite small.     

Money and Credit Redux

We analyze money and credit as competing payment instruments in decentralized exchange. In natural environments, we show the economy does not need both: if credit is easy, money is irrelevant; if credit is tight, money is essential, but credit becomes irrelevant. Changes in credit conditions are neutral because real balances respond endogenously to keep total liquidity constant. This is true for both exogenous and endogenous debt limits and policy limits, secured and unsecured lending, and general pricing mechanisms. While we show how to overturn some of these results, the benchmark model suggests credit might matter less than people think.