A Gompertz fit that fits: Applications to canadian fertility patterns

In this paper an attempt is made to refine the method of fitting the Gompertz function to the cumulative fertility rates by using iterative techniques. The method is tested with the historical data series for the Canadian population. The demographic implication of the parameters of the Gompertz function as fitted to the fertility distribution is examined, and the usefulness of the method in projecting future fertility trends is studied. The Makeham function is also fitted to the fertility distribution by the same iterative technique, and the relative efficiency of this function is compared with that of the Gompertz.     

Change, continuity or cycles: The population turnaround in New South Wales

This study examines population flows from Sydney and other regions to perimetropolitan and coastal areas of New South Wales, the two main foci of the population turnaround since 1971. It uses census internal migration statistics for the five intercensal periods between 1971 and 1996, and estimated resident population statistics between 1997 and 2000. Fluctuating trends are described with respect to variations in age structures of migration flows and net migration gains by SLAs in coastal areas over time. Evidence of fluctuating trends is evaluated in relation to population structure change and local socio-economic multipliers in turnaround areas. The turnaround is far mor than a net migration gain from large metropolitan areas; it is also associated with interregional migration which avoids metropolitan areas, and which is at least in part environment- and amenity-related. The experience of some other countries, such as the USA where net migration reversals in population turn-around regions have occurred, has not been replicated in Australia. While elements of explanation for the complex cumulative causation process of the population turnaround in Australia are discussed, including the issues of fluctuating or cyclical trends, much more understanding of the economic and social factors involved is required.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF PROCEDURAL JUSTICE IN SECURING COMPLIANCE: A STUDY OF TAX SCHEME INVESTORS

Throughout the 1990s, tens of thousands of Australian taxpayers invested in mass‐marketed tax effective schemes. They enjoyed generous tax breaks until the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) told them in 1998 that they abused the system. This study examines the circumstances surrounding taxpayers' decision to invest in scheme arrangements. It also explores investors' perceptions of the way the ATO handled the schemes issue and, perhaps more importantly, why such a large number of investors defied the ATO's demands that they pay back taxes. Data were taken from in‐depth interviews conducted with 29 scheme investors. Consistent with the procedural justice literature, the findings revealed that many scheme investors defied the ATO's demands because the procedures the ATO used to handle the situation were perceived to be unfair. Given these findings, it will be argued that to effectively shape desired behaviour, regulators will need to move beyond enforcement strategies linked purely to deterrence. A strategy that aims to emphasise the procedural justice aspects of a regulatory encounter will be discussed.     

Immigration's prism: Historical continuities in the Kennedy-Simpson legal immigration reform bill

National debates about U.S. immigration policy usually involve a blend of three issues: (1) How many immigrants should the United States accept? (2) Where should the immigrants come from? and (3) What criteria should be used in selecting immigrants? The debate and compromise surrounding the Kennedy-Simpson bill, passed by the U.S. Senate in July 1989 and constituting the Senate's latest attempt to reform U.S.legal immigration policy, is no exception. This paper examines the evolution of the Kennedy-Simpson bill, partly to reveal current directions in U.S. immigration policy but more importantly to use this analysis as a prism through which historical continuities in U.S. immigration reforms may be isolated and evaluated.     

Analysis of Irish third-level college applications data

Summary.  The Irish college admissions system involves prospective students listing up to 10 courses in order of preference on their application. Places in third-level educational institutions are subsequently offered to the applicants on the basis of both their preferences and their final second-level examination results. The college applications system is a large area of public debate in Ireland. Detractors suggest that the process creates artificial demand for 'high profile' courses, causing applicants to ignore their vocational callings. Supporters argue that the system is impartial and transparent. The Irish college degree applications data from the year 2000 are analysed by using mixture models based on ranked data models to investigate the types of application behaviour that are exhibited by college applicants. The results of this analysis show that applicants form groups according to both the discipline and the geographical location of their course choices. In addition, there is evidence of the suggested 'points race' for high profile courses. Finally, gender emerges as an influential factor when studying course choice behaviour.     

When training and prevention meet

This article explores the intended and unintended consequences of CiN/child protection training when this training is offered to parents and grandparents who live in the community. It asks whether training can fulfil a preventative function on behalf of children and child protection systems. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Longitudinal HIV risk behavior among the Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Studies (DATOS) adult sample

Longitudinal trajectories for HIV risk were examined over 5 years following treatment among 1,393 patients who participated in the nationwide Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Studies. Both injection drug use and sexual risk behavior declined over time, with most of the decline occurring between intake and the first-year follow-up. However, results of the application of growth mixture models for both sets of trajectories indicated that a subgroup of individuals reverted to a high-risk behavior over time, with a higher level of risk at the 5-year follow-up than their original risk level at intake. Of clients who were engaged in regular injection drug use at intake, 76% continued to inject drug at a moderate-stable or increased rate during the 5-year follow-up.     

Financial Globalisation,State Autonomy and Modern Financial Instruments: The Case of Brazil

This article examines the impact of innovative financial instruments on the relationship between states and financial markets. Using the example of Brazil in the period after 2000, this paper argues that growth in credits default swaps and inflation-linked bond markets have had a tangible impact on this relationship. Growth in these markets has afforded the Brazilian state more autonomy and lessened the normative power of financial markets. This paper shows that developments in global financial markets do not always result in a diminution of state power.

Este artículo examina el impacto de los instrumentos financieros innovadores en la relación entre los estados y los mercados financieros. Tomando el ejemplo del Brasil en el período después del 2000, este artículo sostiene que el crecimiento en los swaps en el incumplimiento crediticio y el mercado de bonos estructurados vinculados a la inflación, han tenido un impacto tangible en esta relación. La habilidad de pasar el riesgo de impago a mercados financieros más amplios, ha significado que más instituciones estén dispuestas a prestarle al Brasil y como consecuencia, la relación del país con la comunidad financiera ha cambiado. El crecimiento en estos mercados ha provisto al estado brasileño de más autonomía y reducido el poder normativo de los mercados financieros. Este artículo indica que los desarrollos en los mercados financieros globales, no siempre resultan en una disminución del poder estatal.