Consistent Probabilistic Social Choice

Two fundamental axioms in social choice theory are consistency with respect to a variable electorate and consistency with respect to components of similar alternatives. In the context of traditional non‐probabilistic social choice, these axioms are incompatible with each other. We show that in the context of probabilistic social choice, these axioms uniquely characterize a function proposed by Fishburn (1984). Fishburn's function returns so‐called maximal lotteries, that is, lotteries that correspond to optimal mixed strategies in the symmetric zero‐sum game induced by the pairwise majority margins. Maximal lotteries are guaranteed to exist due to von Neumann's Minimax Theorem, are almost always unique, and can be efficiently computed using linear programming.     

Role of National Divorce Rates in Moderating the Association Between Marriage Duration and Body Mass Index

The aim of this study was to investigate the moderating effects of the national divorce rate on the association between body weight and marriage duration. Previous studies argued that a high divorce rate at country level reduces the body weight of married people because of an increased risk of a return to the marriage market. To examine the association in question, this study used retrospective data from 14,083 middle-aged individuals in Europe. For women the divorce rate, the percentage change, and the trend of change did not moderate the positive association between body mass index and marriage duration. In contrast, for men a high divorce rate and a steady decline over time positively moderated the relation between body mass index and marriage duration.     

Enriching Absorptive Capacity through Social Interaction

Absorptive capacity is frequently highlighted as a key determinant of knowledge transfer within multinational enterprises. But how individual behaviour translates into absorptive capacity at the subsidiary level, and how this is contingent on subsidiaries' social context, remains under‐addressed. This not only limits our understanding of the relationship between individual‐ and organizational‐level absorptive capacity, but also hampers further research on potentially relevant managerial and organizational antecedents, and limits the implications we can draw for practitioners who seek to increase their organization's capacity to put new knowledge to use. To address this shortcoming we conduct an in‐depth comparative case study of a headquarters‐initiated knowledge transfer at two subsidiaries of the same multinational enterprise. The findings demonstrate that social interaction is a prerequisite for subsidiary absorptive capacity as it enables employees to participate in the transformation of new knowledge to the local context and the development of local applications. The findings also illustrate how organizational conditions at the subsidiary level can impact subsidiary absorptive capacity by enabling or constraining local interaction patterns. These insights contribute to the absorptive capacity literature by demonstrating the scale and scope of social interaction as a key link between individual‐ and organizational‐level absorptive capacity.     

Intra-industry diversification effects under firm-specific contingencies on the demand side

How do firm-specific, demand-related factors influence the relationship between intra-industry diversification (IID) and performance? Recent findings regarding the performance effects of IID depict a complex picture with curvilinear relationships and several contingencies. However, firm-specific contingencies on the demand side have remained unexplored. We analyze how IID relates to firm performance (market share) in the German automotive industry using panel data between 1999 and 2008. We specifically focus on a firm's high-quality brand image as a demand-side contingency. We find support for our hypotheses of complex curvilinear relationships as well as for moderating effects of brand quality. Our results have significant theoretical implications for the IID literature.     

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Circular literacy. A knowledge-based approach to the circular economy

ABSTRACT

This paper applies a knowledge-based approach to study the role of circular economy (CE) for sustainable development. An analysis of publications from practice-oriented CE advocates is deployed to study the types of knowledge actors foster when they pursue the transition towards a CE. With the proposed term ‘circular literacy’ (CL), an analytical framework is provided to differentiate between different types of knowledge relevant for a transition towards the CE: system, target, and transformation knowledge. The main emphasis is on identifying knowledge-related prerequisites that prevent or stimulate the transformative potential of CE thinking and practices for sustainable development. The analysis reveals how the CL in the sample is confined by a narrow economic vision of the CE, lacking a reflection of political and sociocultural aspects that are needed to be addressed in future research to gain a robust concept of a CE-driven systemic transition towards sustainability.     

Aufsichtsratsverflechtungen und ihr Einfluss

This article examines the development of executive compensation of the German DAX corporations from 2001 to 2006. A higher executive compensation requires an approval of the supervisory board. Accordingly, we investigate the social network of the board of directors of these companies and use several variables describing the structure of this network as covariates of the development of the executive compensation in a panel analysis. Fixed and time effects panel estimations imply that a rising number of executives in the supervisory board of other companies results in increasing compensation. By contrast, executive compensation decreases when the supervisory board of the respective company is controlled by a growing number of executives from foreign companies.     

Curbing the demographic “drifting dune” in long-term care insurance financing: The case of Germany

Long-term care provision and financing are becoming increasingly important matters in all ageing economies. Therefore, a major challenge for policy makers is to strike a balance between adequate care and sustainable financing. In this study, we evaluate the proposal of a so-called sustainability factor in German long-term care insurance. Considering changes in the beneficiary-contributor ratio, it aims for a rule-based consideration of demographic dynamics to alleviate pressure on long-term care financing. Using the framework of generational accounting, we demonstrate that this proposal could have a relieving effect on finances, depending on the share of involvement of current and future generations. It may offer an option for pay-as-you-go long-term care insurance systems worldwide that need to curb the impact of ageing societies. Therefore, this article addresses policy makers tasked with designing a sustainable financing model for long-term care insurance. It demonstrates that the sustainability factor represents a step towards sustainable finances and, thus, it might be one component of a more comprehensive reform package.     

Adaptive Shrinkage in Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are frequently used for forecasting and impulse response analysis. For both applications, shrinkage priors can help improving inference. In this article, we apply the Normal-Gamma shrinkage prior to the VAR with stochastic volatility case and derive its relevant conditional posterior distributions. This framework imposes a set of normally distributed priors on the autoregressive coefficients and the covariance parameters of the VAR along with Gamma priors on a set of local and global prior scaling parameters. In a second step, we modify this prior setup by introducing another layer of shrinkage with scaling parameters that push certain regions of the parameter space to zero. Two simulation exercises show that the proposed framework yields more precise estimates of model parameters and impulse response functions. In addition, a forecasting exercise applied to U.S. data shows that this prior performs well relative to other commonly used specifications in terms of point and density predictions. Finally, performing structural inference suggests that responses to monetary policy shocks appear to be reasonable.     

A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.