全文获取类型
收费全文 | 2550篇 |
免费 | 160篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 275篇 |
民族学 | 35篇 |
人口学 | 298篇 |
丛书文集 | 2篇 |
理论方法论 | 221篇 |
综合类 | 59篇 |
社会学 | 1282篇 |
统计学 | 538篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 3篇 |
2023年 | 38篇 |
2022年 | 34篇 |
2021年 | 45篇 |
2020年 | 118篇 |
2019年 | 106篇 |
2018年 | 210篇 |
2017年 | 236篇 |
2016年 | 184篇 |
2015年 | 109篇 |
2014年 | 137篇 |
2013年 | 459篇 |
2012年 | 223篇 |
2011年 | 110篇 |
2010年 | 87篇 |
2009年 | 81篇 |
2008年 | 85篇 |
2007年 | 64篇 |
2006年 | 49篇 |
2005年 | 45篇 |
2004年 | 37篇 |
2003年 | 45篇 |
2002年 | 30篇 |
2001年 | 25篇 |
2000年 | 15篇 |
1999年 | 11篇 |
1998年 | 6篇 |
1997年 | 11篇 |
1996年 | 8篇 |
1995年 | 9篇 |
1994年 | 10篇 |
1993年 | 4篇 |
1992年 | 9篇 |
1991年 | 8篇 |
1990年 | 7篇 |
1989年 | 9篇 |
1988年 | 8篇 |
1987年 | 4篇 |
1986年 | 5篇 |
1985年 | 4篇 |
1984年 | 3篇 |
1979年 | 2篇 |
1978年 | 2篇 |
1977年 | 2篇 |
1975年 | 2篇 |
1974年 | 1篇 |
1973年 | 3篇 |
1972年 | 1篇 |
1971年 | 2篇 |
1967年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有2710条查询结果,搜索用时 625 毫秒
951.
952.
Daniel Béland Paula Blomqvist Jørgen Goul Andersen Joakim Palme Alex Waddan 《Social Policy & Administration》2014,48(7):739-756
The debate about the future of universal social programmes has been raging for years, both in social‐democratic and in liberal welfare states. The objective of this article is to contribute to the literature on universality by analyzing the evolution of universal social programmes in two social‐democratic and two liberal countries: Denmark, Sweden, Canada and the UK. This choice of countries provides the opportunity to investigate whether the principle and practice of universality has fared differently both within and between countries. The analysis focuses primarily on the national level while exploring three policy areas: pensions, healthcare and family policy, specifically child benefits and day care. The main conclusion of our comparative analysis is clear: among our two liberal and two social‐democratic countries, the institutional strength of universality varies greatly from one policy area and one country to another. Considering this, there is no such a thing as a universal decline of universality. 相似文献
953.
David Dereudre Frédéric Lavancier Kateřina Staňková Helisová 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2014,41(3):809-829
The Quermass‐interaction model allows to generalize the classical germ‐grain Boolean model in adding a morphological interaction between the grains. It enables to model random structures with specific morphologies, which are unlikely to be generated from a Boolean model. The Quermass‐interaction model depends in particular on an intensity parameter, which is impossible to estimate from classical likelihood or pseudo‐likelihood approaches because the number of points is not observable from a germ‐grain set. In this paper, we present a procedure based on the Takacs–Fiksel method, which is able to estimate all parameters of the Quermass‐interaction model, including the intensity. An intensive simulation study is conducted to assess the efficiency of the procedure and to provide practical recommendations. It also illustrates that the estimation of the intensity parameter is crucial in order to identify the model. The Quermass‐interaction model is finally fitted by our method to P. Diggle's heather data set. 相似文献
954.
Neveka M. Olmos Héctor Varela Heleno Bolfarine Héctor W. Gómez 《Statistical Papers》2014,55(4):967-981
In this paper we propose an extension of the generalized half-normal distribution studied in Cooray and Ananda (Commun Stat 37:1323–1337, 2008). This new distribution is defined by considering the quotient of two random variables, the one in the numerator being a generalized half normal distribution and the one in the denominator being a power of the uniform distribution on \((0,1)\) , respectively. The resulting distribution has greater kurtosis than the generalized half normal distribution. The density function of this more general distribution is derived jointly with some of its properties and moments. We discuss stochastic representation, maximum likelihood and moments estimation. Applications to real data sets are reported revealing that the proposed distribution can fit real data better than the slashed half-normal, generalized half-normal and Birnbaum–Saunders distributions. 相似文献
955.
This paper contributes to the emerging Bayesian literature on treatment effects. It derives treatment parameters in the framework of a potential outcomes model with a treatment choice equation, where the correlation between the unobservable components of the model is driven by a low-dimensional vector of latent factors. The analyst is assumed to have access to a set of measurements generated by the latent factors. This approach has attractive features from both theoretical and practical points of view. Not only does it address the fundamental identification problem arising from the inability to observe the same person in both the treated and untreated states, but it also turns out to be straightforward to implement. Formulae are provided to compute mean treatment effects as well as their distributional versions. A Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate how the methodology can easily be applied. 相似文献
956.
We compare two different elicitation methods for measuring risk attitudes on a sample of French farmers. We consider the lottery tasks initially proposed by Holt and Laury (Econ Rev 92:1644?C1655, 2002) and by Eckel and Grossman (Evol Hum Behav 23:281?C295, 2002; J Econ Behav Org 68:1?C7, 2008). The main empirical result from this within-subject study is that risk preference measures are affected by the type of mechanism used. We first show that this risk preference instability can be related to non-expected utility preferences of farmers. Using a risk-taking psychometric questionnaire, we then demonstrate that risk preferences of farmers are context-dependent. This may be another explanation of the observed risk preference instability. 相似文献
957.
Ana Rita Salgueiro Henrique Garcia Pereira Maria‐Teresa Rico Gerado Benito Andrés Díez‐Herreo 《Risk analysis》2008,28(1):13-23
A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations. 相似文献
958.
The purpose of this paper is to present a nonparametric Bayesian procedure for estimating a survival curve in a double censoring situation. Assuming a proportional hazard rates model, we propose a consistent estimation of lifetime, based on a Dirichlet process prior knowledge on the observable random vector. Some large sample properties of this estimator are also derived, We prove strong consistency and asymptotic weak convergence to a Gaussian pro cess. Finally, a simulation study is presented in order to analyze the behavior of the proposed estimator, and establish some comparisons to other estimators. 相似文献
959.
In this paper, we develop a nonparametrie recursive estimator for the vitality and mena residual life function, based on kernel density estimators under mixing dependence conditions. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established, under suitable regularity conditions. It is also shown that the Integrated Mean Squared Error converges to zero. The paper is concluyed with some simulation results. 相似文献
960.
The Hinde–Demétrio (HD) family of distributions, which are discrete exponential dispersion models with an additional real index parameter p, have been recently characterized from the unit variance function μ + μ p . For p equals to 2, 3,…, the corresponding distributions are concentrated on non negative integers, overdispersed and zero-inflated with respect to a Poisson distribution having the same mean. The negative binomial (p = 2) and strict arcsine (p = 3) distributions are HD families; the limit case (p → ∞) is associated to a suitable Poisson distribution. Apart from these count distributions, none of the HD distributions has explicit probability mass functions p k . This article shows that the ratios r k = k p k /p k?1, k = 1,…, p ? 1, are equal and different from r p . This new property allows, for a given count data set, to determine the integer p by some tests. The extreme situation of p = 2 is of general interest for count data. Some examples are used for illustrations and discussions. 相似文献