Metamodeling of aircraft infrared signature dispersion

Existing computer simulations of aircraft InfraRed Signature (IRS) do not account for the dispersion induced by uncertainty on input data such as aircraft aspect angles and meteorological conditions. As a result, they are of little use to estimate the detection performance of optronic systems: in that case, the scenario encompasses a lot of possible situations that must indeed be addressed, but cannot be singly simulated. In this paper, a three-step methodological approach for predicting simulated IRS dispersion of imperfectly known aircraft is proposed. The first step is a sensitivity analysis. The second step consists in a Quasi-Monte Carlo survey of the code output dispersion. In the last step, a neural network metamodel of the IRS simulation code is constructed. It will allow carrying out thorough computationally demanding tasks, such as those required for optimization of an optronic sensor. This method is illustrated in a typical scenario, namely an air-to-ground full-frontal attack by a generic combat aircraft, and gives satisfactory estimation of the infrared signature dispersion.     

Multidimensional life satisfaction,stressful events and social support network of Brazilian children in out‐of‐home care

In 1990, the Child and Adolescents' Statute was passed in Brazil which led to important changes in shelter homes for children who have been removed due to child maltreatment. However very few studies have been conducted on this population since this policy change; the goal of this study is to assess the multidimensional life satisfaction, stressful life events and social network of children living in shelters compared with those living with their families. The sample consists of 155 children ages 7–16 years living in shelters and 142 children living with their families. Data were collected using a structured interview, the Multidimensional Life Satisfaction Scale, the Stressful Life Events Inventory and the Five Field Map. The shelter sub‐sample had many at‐risk characteristics; they also had significantly greater average scores on stressful life events and social support network, while they had lower than average scores on multidimensional life satisfaction. Factors that significantly contributed to predicting life satisfaction were stressful life events, social support network and conflicts with family members. The findings highlight differences between children living in shelters compared to those living with their families; this article also discusses the policy implications of these findings for child welfare practice in Brazil.     

Individual and couple decision behavior under risk: evidence on the dynamics of power balance

This article reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the spouses and the couples’ degrees of risk aversion, we assess how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they make risky decisions, and we shed light on the dynamics of the decision process that takes place when couples make risky decisions. We find that, far from being fixed, the balance of power within the household is malleable. In most couples, men have, initially, more decision-making power than women but women who ultimately implement the joint decisions gain more and more power over the course of decision making.     

Solving endogeneity problems in multilevel estimation: an example using education production functions

This paper explores endogeneity problems in multilevel estimation of education production functions. The focus is on level 2 endogeneity which arises from correlations between student characteristics and omitted school variables. Theses correlations are mainly the result of student stratification between schools. From an econometric point of view, the correlations between student and school characteristics imply that the omission of some variables may generate endogeneity bias. Therefore, an estimation approach based on the Mundlak [20 Mundlak, Y. 1978. On the pooling of time series and cross-sectional data. Econometrica, 46: 69–86. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] technique is developed in order to tackle bias and to generate consistent estimates. Note that our analysis can be extended to any multilevel-structured data (students nested within schools, employees within firms, firms within regions, etc). The entire analysis is undertaken in a comparative context between three countries: Germany, Finland and the UK. Each one of them represents a particular system. For instance, Finland is known for its extreme comprehensiveness, Germany for early selection and the UK for its liberalism. These countries are used to illustrate the theory and to prove that the level of bias arising from omitted variables varies according to the characteristics of education systems.     

OECD's ‘Better Life Index’: can any country be well ranked?

We critically review the Better Life Index (BLI) recently introduced by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We discuss methodological issues in the definition of the criteria used to rank the countries, as well as in their aggregation method. Moreover, we explore the unique option offered by the BLI to apply one's own weight set to 11 criteria. Although 16 countries can be ranked first by choosing ad hoc weightings, only Canada, Australia and Sweden do so over a substantial fraction of the parameter space defined by all possible weight sets. Furthermore, most pairwise comparisons between countries are insensitive to the choice of the weights. Therefore, the BLI establishes a hierarchy among the evaluated countries, independent of the chosen set of weights.     

Adaptive sequential design for regression on multi-resolution bases

This work investigates the problem of construction of designs for estimation and discrimination between competing linear models. In our framework, the unknown signal is observed with the addition of a noise and only a few evaluations of the noisy signal are available. The model selection is performed in a multi-resolution setting. In this setting, the locations of discrete sequential D and A designs are precisely constraint in a small number of explicit points. Hence, an efficient stochastic algorithm can be constructed that alternately improves the design and the model. Several numerical experiments illustrate the efficiency of our method for regression. One can also use this algorithm as a preliminary step to build response surfaces for sensitivity analysis.     

Can Reporting Heterogeneity Explain Differences in Depressive Symptoms Across Europe?

Depression is one of the leading causes of disability in the developed world. Previous studies have shown varying depression prevalence rates between European countries, and also within countries, between socioeconomic groups. However, it is unclear whether these differences reflect true variations in prevalence or whether they are attributable to systematic differences in reporting styles (reporting heterogeneity) between countries and socioeconomic groups. In this study, we examine the prevalence of three depressive symptoms (mood, sleeping and concentration problems) and their association with educational level in 10 European countries, and examine whether these differences can be explained by differences in reporting styles. We use data from the first and second waves of the COMPARE study, comprising a sub-sample of 9,409 adults aged 50 and over in 10 European countries covered by the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We first use ordered probit models to estimate differences in the prevalence of self-reported depressive symptoms by country and education. We then use hierarchical ordered probit models to assess differences controlling for reporting heterogeneity. We find that depressive symptoms are most prevalent in Mediterranean and Eastern European countries, whereas Sweden and Denmark have the lowest prevalence. Lower educational level is associated with higher prevalence of depressive symptoms in all European regions, but this association is weaker in Northern European countries, and strong in Eastern European countries. Reporting heterogeneity does not explain these cross-national differences. Likewise, differences in depressive symptoms by educational level remain and in some regions increase after controlling for reporting heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that variations in depressive symptoms in Europe are not attributable to differences in reporting styles, but are instead likely to result from variations in the causes of depressive symptoms between countries and educational groups.     

Rethinking the nation and international relations: The space of nation states

Efforts to move sociology beyond the nation state and international relations theory have both been plagued by several limitations and dualisms. Recent research has begun to find ways beyond the problems by turning to Pierre Bourdieu's relational conception of social structure and practice. Yet one specific relational structure forming a key part of the puzzle has been neglected or merely implicitly assumed so far: the space of nation states. After clarifying the structural-constructivist nature of this concept, we aim to specify it by constructing an empirical model of the contemporary space of nation states using a specially compiled dataset and tools of geometric data analysis. The analysis reveals the distribution of powers on the world scene, and more specifically, the uneven possession of two varieties of “meta-capital” understood as capacities to regulate the value and exchangeability of certain capitals and to decree what even defines a legitimate “state”. We argue that the nation state, which is accurately understood as a contingent construct and well-founded fiction from a Bourdieusian viewpoint, should not be excluded when analyzing the expression and reproduction of contemporary global power relations.     

Lability of prenatal stress during the COVID-19 pandemic links to negative affect in infancy

The association between prenatal stress and children's socioemotional development is well established. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a particularly stressful period, which may impact the gestational environment. However, most studies to-date have examined prenatal stress at a single time point, potentially masking the natural variation in stress that occurs over time, especially during a time as uncertain as the pandemic. This study leveraged dense ecological momentary assessments from a prenatal randomized control trial to examine patterns of prenatal stress over a 14-week period (up to four assessments/day) in a U.S. sample of 72 mothers and infants. We first examined whether varied features of stress exposure (lability, mean, and baseline stress) differed depending on whether mothers reported on their stress before or during the pandemic. We next examined which features of stress were associated with 3-month-old infants' negative affect. We did not find differences in stress patterns before and during the pandemic. However, greater stress lability, accounting for baseline and mean stress, was associated with higher infant negative affect. These findings suggest that pathways from prenatal stress exposure to infant socioemotional development are complex, and close attention to stress patterns over time will be important for explicating these pathways.     

Increasingly heterogeneous ages at first birth by education in Southern European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes: A seven-country comparison by birth cohort

According to the 'reproductive polarization' hypothesis, family-policy regimes unfavourable to the combination of employment with motherhood generate greater socio-economic differentials in fertility than other regimes. This hypothesis has been tested mainly for 'liberal' Anglo-American regimes. To investigate the effects elsewhere, we compared education differentials in age at first birth among native-born women of 1950s and 1960s birth cohorts in seven countries representing three regime types. Women with low educational attainment have continued to have first births early, not only in Britain and the USA but also in Greece, Italy, and Spain. Women at all other levels of education have experienced a shift towards later first births, a shift that has been largest in Southern Europe. Unlike the educationally heterogeneous changes in age pattern at first birth seen under the Southern European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes, the changes across birth cohorts in the study's two 'universalistic' countries, Norway and France, have been educationally homogeneous.