Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Factor Models

We propose bootstrap prediction intervals for an observation h periods into the future and its conditional mean. We assume that these forecasts are made using a set of factors extracted from a large panel of variables. Because we treat these factors as latent, our forecasts depend both on estimated factors and estimated regression coefficients. Under regularity conditions, asymptotic intervals have been shown to be valid under Gaussianity of the innovations. The bootstrap allows us to relax this assumption and to construct valid prediction intervals under more general conditions. Moreover, even under Gaussianity, the bootstrap leads to more accurate intervals in cases where the cross-sectional dimension is relatively small as it reduces the bias of the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator.     

Temporal Dynamics Linking Aspects of Parent Monitoring with Early Adolescent Antisocial Behavior

This longitudinal study examined the covariation between parents' use of control and solicitation, youth willingness to self-disclose to parents, and youth antisocial behavior from ages 13 to 14. Structural equation analyses were conducted on a combined sample of Italian (N  =  152) and French Canadian (N  =  151) adolescents. Analyses tested for longitudinal cross-lagged effects while controlling for stability and all concurrent associations. Although bivariate correlations showed consistent associations among these constructs, both concurrently and over one year, SEM results revealed virtually no cross-lagged effects, after controlling for concurrent associations and stability. These findings suggest that the actual causal effects of parenting and youth behavior may best be conceptualized as occurring in the moment, rather than over extended periods of time. Results also showed that parental control and solicitation demonstrated very different associations with youth antisocial behavior, and should therefore be considered separately for research and prevention.     

Predictors of Adolescent Participation in Organized Activities: A Five‐Year Longitudinal Study

This study examined (a) growth curves of youth participation in sports, performance and fine arts, and youth clubs throughout the high school years and (b) the associations between a series of predictors and the initial participation rates and growth over time. The predictors included individual, friend, and family factors. The moderating effect of youths' gender was also examined. Study participants were 272 youths (55% girls, M_age=12.4 years) and their parents. The predictors were assessed in Grade 6 and were based on reports by youths, parents, teachers, and classmates. Participation in organized activities was assessed annually from Grades 7 to 10. Altogether, the findings revealed that participation in sports, performance and fine arts, and youth clubs remains stable across the high school years. However, interindividual differences were found in the participation growth curves. This variation was predicted by individual, friend, and family factors, mostly with respect to sports activities.     

Replacing the Canadianization Generation: An Examination of Faculty Composition from 1977 through 2017

Amid growing numbers of doctoral graduates entering an increasingly competitive global academic job market, concerns about equity in the hiring process and the value of the Canadian Ph.D. are mounting. Grounded within the historical context of the Canadianization Movement, we examine the doctoral credentials of 4,934 U15 social science faculty between 1977 and 2017 to understand the ebb and flow of incoming and outgoing faculty across the country's academic field. Our trend analyses reveal an overall increase in the proportion of Canadian‐trained faculty hires with the noted exceptions of Canada's top three universities who display a strong presence of high‐status American‐trained faculty throughout. Results from the contemporary period, between 1997 and 2017, reveal a time of retirement during which outgoing Canadian‐trained faculty are replaced with increasing proportions of American‐trained academics.     

Organizational wisdom practices and firm product innovation

Review of Managerial Science - The manner in which organizational wisdom-related variables or practices (e.g., reasoning, intuition, virtue, prudence, and aesthetics) are related to firm product...     

SFX Miscellaneous Free Ejournals Target: Usage Survey Among the SFX Community

The number of free or open access articles is increasing rapidly, and their retrieval with library indexes and OpenURL link resolvers has been a challenge. In June 2014, the SFX MISCELLANEOUS_FREE_EJOURNALS target contained more than 24,000 portfolios of all kinds. The SFX KnowledgeBase Advisory Board (KBAB) carried out an international survey to get an overview of the usage of this target by the SFX community and to precisely identify what could be done to improve it. The target is widely used among the community. However, many respondents complained about three major problems: (a) incorrect links, (b) full texts actually not free, and (c) incorrect or missing thresholds (years and volumes information).     

Methodological Issues in the Use of Peer Sociometric Nominations with Middle School Youth

Studies reporting sociometric assessments based on nominations have been characterized by important methodological inconsistencies when conducted in the middle school context. The purpose of this study was to examine (1) the possibility of a response bias when participants are provided with a long roster sorted alphabetically, (2) the impact of including or not other‐sex peers in the voting population, and (3) the impact of including or not all the grademates in the voting population. Participants were 664 sixth graders from three middle schools. Peer nominations for sociometric items (i.e., like most and like least), as well as teacher ratings of antisocial behavior and records of academic performance, were collected. A sequence effect in peer nominations was found, suggesting that students whose names were listed higher on the rosters received more nominations than did students whose names were listed lower on the list. Moreover, results indicated that the nominations received from the other‐sex grademates and from the grademates outside the classroom improved the predictive validity of the sociometric measure. The implications of these results for the use of sociometric assessment in middle schools are discussed.     

Equity, efficiency and inequality traps: A research agenda

This paper discusses a research agenda that arises from unanswered questions and unresolved issues considered in the World Bank’s World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development. After formalizing the key concepts of equity; equality of opportunity; and efficiency, and proposing a definition for an equitable development policy, the paper discusses the concept of inequality traps, around which the research agenda is structured. Four broad groups of research questions are highlighted: those revolving around the measurement of inequality of opportunity and the diagnostics for the existence of an inequality trap; those dealing with the causes of inequality traps; the quantification of their efficiency costs; and those related to how institutions (including governments) evolve to overcome inequality traps. Bourguignon and Ferreira are in the Development Economics Vice-Presidency, The World Bank. Michael Walton is at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Together, they led the team that produced the World Bank’s World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development.     

Parental Speech and Gesture Input to Girls Versus Boys in Singletons and Twins

Journal of Nonverbal Behavior - Children show sex differences in early speech development, with girls producing a greater number and variety of words at an earlier age than boys (Berglund et al. in...     

Life after work: older Australians' experiences of early exit from the workforce

Little is known about the experience of those in the baby boom cohort who are outside the labour market. Understanding their experience has the potential to inform policy strategies to support older people to remain longer in the workforce. Using in‐depth interview data from 26 participants, this paper examines the reasons people aged between 50 and 64 years give for being not‐employed, how they perceive it affects their health, how socioeconomic characteristics shape their experience and what would entice them back into paid work. Participants' main reasons for being not‐employed included: feeling financially able and ready to exit, feeling unhappy about workplace reorganisations, disability, or their partner's retirement or ill‐health. The reasons given and the degree to which they had planned to exit the workforce affected their willingness and capacity to consider returning. Key determinants of participants' health and wellbeing after stopping paid work were the extent to which they had planned their exit and the status of their health and wealth at the time of their exit. The paper concludes there is some scope for increasing the number of employed older people if policy makers attend to workforce health and wellbeing as crucial to workforce retention policy development.