Autoregressive Moving Average Infinite Hidden Markov-Switching Models

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for specifying models parsimoniously, and may be helpful in forecasting. We propose the class of sticky infinite hidden Markov-switching autoregressive moving average models, in which we disentangle the break dynamics of the mean and the variance parameters. In this class, the number of regimes is possibly infinite and is determined when estimating the model, thus avoiding the need to set this number by a model choice criterion. We develop a new Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation method that solves the path dependence issue due to the moving average component. Empirical results on macroeconomic series illustrate that the proposed class of models dominates the model with fixed parameters in terms of point and density forecasts.     

The health-schooling relationship: evidence from Swedish twins

Health and education are known to be highly correlated, but the mechanisms behind the relationship are not well understood. In particular, there is sparse evidence on whether adolescent health may influence educational attainment. Using a large registry dataset of twins, including comprehensive information on health status at the age of 18 and later educational attainment, we investigate whether health predicts final education within monozygotic (identical) twin pairs. We find no evidence of this and conclude that health in adolescence may not have an influence on the level of schooling. Instead, raw correlations between adolescent health and schooling appear to be driven by genes and twin-pair-specific environmental factors.     

Payment of Universal Credit for couples in the UK: Challenges for reform from a gender perspective

Universal Credit has been rolled out gradually in the United Kingdom since 2013 as one integrated means-tested benefit replacing six different transfers with a single monthly payment. Previously, these benefits were awarded for distinct purposes and, for couples who claimed them, were potentially payable to different partners. Concerns about Universal Credit’s single payment include the opportunities it may create for facilitating domestic abuse, the fostering of more unequal power relations within couples, the reduction of financial autonomy for individuals, and the de-labelling of benefit payments. This article explores debates about the prospects for individual payments to partners in couples of Universal Credit as a jointly assessed integrated means-tested benefit, including different approaches emerging from the United Kingdom’s devolved governments (mainly Scotland and Northern Ireland). Whilst payment to each partner is likely to be more feasible where there are separate rather than integrated means-tested benefits, it concludes that genuine financial autonomy for partners in couples is best pursued via individually based non-means-tested benefits.     

The intergenerational transmission of risk attitudes: Evidence from Burkina Faso

Review of Economics of the Household - This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of risk attitudes in the context of a low income country with a focus on rural–urban and...     

Identity development among social workers,from training to practice: results from a three-year qualitative longitudinal study

During their training, social work students embark on a process of professional identity (PI) development which will continue to evolve even after graduation. While the literature has begun to point out factors that may facilitate PI development, research that documents the various processes and narratives of identity development is scarce, including in social work. Because PI is known to be influenced by many aspects pertaining to personal, educational and occupational contexts, and because those contexts can be varied, it becomes important to explore PI development from initial training to professional practice and map which aspects may be influencing the experience, and how they do so. Drawing on a longitudinal qualitative methodology, we explore the experience of six young social workers and map the development of their professional identities over the course of nearly three years. Meetings during their final year of undergraduate studies, and again after 6 and 18 months of employment, reveal some of the aspects that emerged as fundamental facilitators of or impediments to a strong PI. This article concludes by suggesting ways to foster a stronger sense of PI among social workers going forward.     

The Phenomenon of Social Enterprises: Are We Keeping Watch on This Cultural Practice?

Social enterprises have reached world levels as an alternative to combat negative effects of the economy such as unemployment, poor distribution of income, and poverty, thus stimulating social entrepreneurship with local actions directed especially to excluded communities. This article corresponds to a study that uses the bibliometric method to analyze the world scientific literature on social enterprises in order to research on the possible existence of investigation projects that may have approached the cultural dimension of said phenomenon. Studies in this field may contribute to the establishment of social enterprises as a cultural practice, for the promotion of a more equitable social and economic development. The analysis of the scientific publications inherent to the topic, suggests, among other results, that the academic production is diverse, but there is still a lack of initiatives in order to explore new perspectives concerning the phenomenon. On the other hand, similarities in the motivation of the studies allow outlining 10 categories that evidence the most interest in the research on social enterprises.     

The Impact of Child Behaviour Problems on Maternal Employment: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

This prospective population-based study examined associations between children’s behaviour problems and maternal employment. Information on children’s behaviour problems at 3 years from 22,115 mothers employed before pregnancy and participating in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study were linked to national register data on employment and relevant social background factors, mothers’ self-reported susceptibility to anxiety/depression and mother-reports of day-care attendance and fathers’ income. Mothers reporting their child to have severe (>2 SD) internalizing or severe combined behaviour problems (5 %) had excess risk of leaving paid employment irrespective of other important characteristics generally associated with maternal employment (RR 1.24–1.31). The attributable risk percent ranged from 30.3 % (internalizing problems) to 32.4 % (combined problems). Externalizing behaviour problems were not uniquely associated with mothers leaving employment.     

Blending Bayesian and Classical Tools to Define Optimal Sample-Size-Dependent Significance Levels

ABSTRACT

This article argues that researchers do not need to completely abandon the p-value, the best-known significance index, but should instead stop using significance levels that do not depend on sample sizes. A testing procedure is developed using a mixture of frequentist and Bayesian tools, with a significance level that is a function of sample size, obtained from a generalized form of the Neyman–Pearson Lemma that minimizes a linear combination of α, the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis, and β, the probability of failing to reject a false null, instead of fixing α and minimizing β. The resulting hypothesis tests do not violate the Likelihood Principle and do not require any constraints on the dimensionalities of the sample space and parameter space. The procedure includes an ordering of the entire sample space and uses predictive probability (density) functions, allowing for testing of both simple and compound hypotheses. Accessible examples are presented to highlight specific characteristics of the new tests.