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101.
102.
Francesco C. Billari 《Population studies》2015,69(1):S11-S20
Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed. 相似文献
103.
Francesco C. Billari 《Journal of Population Research》2001,18(2):119-142
The quantitative analysis of life courses has to deal with a complex pattern of interrelated events and trajectories. Such
a complex pattern needs complex measurement tools, even if only to describe the experience of cohorts. This paper addresses
the methodological issue of describing the transition to adulthood from a life course perspective, following an event-based
definition. New proposals are developed and traditional approaches are discussed, using Italy as an example. A generalization
of survivor functions for the analysis of the temporal relationships between two events is introduced and applied. The paper
then deals with the problem of describing the process of transition to adulthood as a whole, making use of the sequence analysis
approach with special emphasis on the empirical analyses of the ‘standardization vs individualization’ hypotheses. 相似文献
104.
This study was conducted when Slovenia was still harmonising its environmental legislation with the acquis communautaire; a process that today has been fully completed. Moreover, Slovenian state intervention in favour of rural development aims
to stimulate both the conservation of natural resources and the growth of the primary sector. In this paper we suggest that
these issues could be addressed through the application of multivariate statistics and multicriteria decision methods. By
using these methods it would be possible to achieve a better understanding of the importance of territorial structure and
socioeconomic characteristics. Our aim is to identify institutional agricultural measures that are able to protect the environment. 相似文献
105.
Silvano?BordignonEmail author Carlo?Gaetan Francesco?Lisi 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2002,11(2):227-245
One of the main concerns in air pollution is excessive tropospheric ozone concentration. The aim of this work is to develop
statistical models giving shortterm forecasts of future ground-level ozone concentrations. Since there are few physical insights
about the dynamic relationship between ozone, precursor emissions and/or meteorological factors, a nonparametric and nonlinear
approach seems promising in order to specify the forecast models. First, we apply four nonparametric procedures to forecast
daily maximum 1-hour and maximum 8-hour averages of ozone concentrations in an urban area. Then, in order to improve the forecast
performances, we combine the time series of the forecasts. This idea seems to give encouraging results.
This work was supported by a MURST grant. The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. 相似文献
106.
Francesco Ceresia 《Journal of Engineering and Technology Management》2011,28(1-2):49-76
The purpose of the present work is to build a suitable system dynamics model for goal dynamics in organizations, as proposed by Barlas and Yasarcan (2008). The proposed model does not bear any ambition of being exhaustive: the main objective of this paper is to propose a model of goal dynamics in which Goal Setting, Management by Objectives and Training are viewed as human resource practices able to enhance workers’ goal commitment, and therefore, improve organizational performance. In the first part of this paper, an analysis of the Goal Setting Theory and the role of goal setting practices, in bettering worker's performance, are stressed. In the second part, a case-study, the causal loop and a quantitative model of goal dynamics in organizations are described. In the third part, behaviour reproduction testing, optimization analysis for parameter estimation and scenario analysis are presented. Limitations of the present research and conclusions are finally discussed. 相似文献
107.
We study the interrelationships between union-formation forms and fertility in Swedish and West German female cohorts born in 1949–1971. We apply simultaneous hazard models, permitting the presence of correlated unobserved heterogeneity. This method allows us to control for country-specific composition of the population with respect to several socio-economic variables, as well as with respect to unobserved factors jointly affecting childbearing and union formation behavior. Our results confirm that partnership formation and the transition to parenthood are partially interchangeable. Net of those selection effects, we find that the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation. 相似文献
108.
Many constitutions specify procedures that allow critical decisions to be made with a different rule than routine decisions.
We propose a theory of constitutional rules that explains why. The theory is based on the assumption that the type of a decision
can be observed, but not verified. We characterize two classes of second-best constitutions, both with clear analogues in
real world constitutions: (i) incentive scheme (IS) constitutions that elicit information about the type of a decision through
a costly switching procedure and (ii) veto (VT) constitutions that grant limited veto powers to interested parties. 相似文献
109.
Romana L. Autrey Francesco Bova David A. Soberman 《Production and Operations Management》2015,24(4):547-559
Gray markets arise when an intermediary buys a product in a lower‐priced, often emerging market and resells it to compete with the product's original manufacturer in a higher priced, more developed market. Evidence suggests that gray markets make the original manufacturer worse off globally by eroding profit margins in developed markets. Thus, it is interesting that many firms do not implement control systems to curb gray market activity. Our analysis suggests that one possible explanation lies at the intersection of two economic phenomena: firms investing to build emerging market demand, and investments conferring positive externalities (spillovers) on a rival's demand. We find that gray markets amplify the incentives to invest in emerging markets, because investments increase both emerging market consumption and the gray market's cost base. Moreover, when market‐creating investments confer positive spillovers, each firm builds its own market more efficiently. Thus, firms can be better off with gray markets when investments confer spillovers, provided the spillover effect is sufficiently large. These results provide a perspective on why firms might not implement control systems to prevent gray market distribution in sectors where investment spillovers are common (e.g., the technology sector) and, more broadly, why gray markets persist in the economy. 相似文献
110.
Despite cohabitation becoming increasingly equivalent to marriage in some of the most ‘advanced’ Western European societies, the vast majority of people still marry. Why so? Existing theories, mostly based on various approaches tied to cognitive decision‐making, do not provide a sufficient explanation of the persistence of marriage. In this article, we argue that feelings attached to marriage, i.e. the affective evaluation of those involved in a partner relationship concerning marriage as opposed to cohabitation, explain the persistent importance of marriage as an institution. We argue that socialization, biological and social‐structural factors affect these affective evaluations. We provide a test of our hypotheses using a longitudinal study of young adults in the Netherlands. The results of our analyses are consistent with a central role of feelings in the decision to marry, as well as with a role for key moderating factors such as gender. 相似文献