A Monte Carlo Risk Assessment Model for Acrylamide Formation in French Fries

The objective of this study is to estimate the likely human exposure to the group 2a carcinogen, acrylamide, from French fries by Irish consumers by developing a quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Various stages in the French-fry-making process were modeled from initial potato harvest, storage, and processing procedures. The model was developed in Microsoft Excel with the @Risk add-on package. The model was run for 10,000 iterations using Latin hypercube sampling. The simulated mean acrylamide level in French fries was calculated to be 317 μg/kg. It was found that females are exposed to smaller levels of acrylamide than males (mean exposure of 0.20 μg/kg bw/day and 0.27 μg/kg bw/day, respectively). Although the carcinogenic potency of acrylamide is not well known, the simulated probability of exceeding the average chronic human dietary intake of 1 μg/kg bw/day (as suggested by WHO) was 0.054 and 0.029 for males and females, respectively. A sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of the selection of appropriate cultivars with known low reducing sugar levels for French fry production. Strict control of cooking conditions (correlation coefficient of 0.42 and 0.35 for frying time and temperature, respectively) and blanching procedures (correlation coefficient −0.25) were also found to be important in ensuring minimal acrylamide formation.     

On the margin? Residential child care in Scotland and Finland

Situated on the margins of Europe, Scotland and Finland are small countries which share similar demographic and economic profiles. In many European countries, residential child care can also be considered to be ‘on the margin’ of child care provision; there is ambivalence about residential care and a view that it should be used as a last resort. This paper examines systems and practices of residential care in Scotland and Finland, locating these in the context of wider child welfare policy in both countries. The underpinning principles of child welfare provision in both countries are similar—based on children's rights and primarily family-focused. In both countries there are also similar concerns about the fragmentation of child care provision and the cost of residential services. However, there are also important differences relating to child welfare provision and the use of residential care. In Finland, overall numbers of children in residential care are much greater than in Scotland; the age profile of these children and young people is very different; and the two countries vary markedly in the use of secure accommodation and custody. This comparative analysis suggests new ways of understanding the similarities and difference in the use of residential care in the two countries. It highlights the continuing challenge to develop residential care as a positive and integral part of a continuum of care services.     

Joe's First Bank

Joe Spoke has had a highly successful career in banking. Joe will leave his present job as CEO of a county region of a bank chain within 60 days because of disagreements with his new boss. The case explores several career options for Joe. One option is to take a job as one of three executive vice presidents of a local bank. A second option is to take a job that will involve relocation. A third option is to start a new bank in his county. The case explores the option of starting a new bank in detail. Projected financial statements are included for analysis by the students. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Investing in children's futures: enhancing the educational arrangements of 'looked after' children and young people

This paper reports on selected findings of a small-scale study which examined the educational experiences of a group of children 'looked after' away from home in the former Lothian Regional Council. While it is claimed that the advent of a new Scottish parliament heralds an opportunity to construct a more inclusive society in Scotland, it is clear from all the research conducted to date that one excluded group, children who are in public care, experience significant educational disadvantages and that both the scale and persistence of the problem demand urgent measures. A brief review of the literature is offered and a number of explanations for the poor educational performance of this group of children are considered. It is argued that the difficulties experienced by looked after children arise from the interplay of a variety of social, structural and professional factors and that efforts to redress the disadvantages must take account of all these factors. The paper briefly considers the origins and philosophy of the Scottish Children's Hearings System and argues that it could fulfil a more proactive role in safeguarding and promoting looked after children's educational interests. Finally, the key features of a strategic approach are outlined, highlighting the need for effective collaboration in policy and practice.     

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND CRIME IN FRANCE

In this paper we examine the influence of unemployment on property crimes and on violent crimes in France for the period 1990 to 2000. This analysis is the first extensive study for this country. We construct a regional‐level data set (for the 95 départements of metropolitan France) with measures of crimes as reported to the Ministry of Interior. To assess social conditions prevailing in the département in that year, we construct measures of the share of unemployed as well as other social, economic, and demographic variables using multiple waves of the French Labor Survey. We estimate a classic Becker‐type model in which unemployment is a measure of how potential criminals fare in the legitimate job market. First, our estimates show that in the cross‐section dimension, crime and unemployment are positively associated. Second, we find that increases in youth unemployment induce increases in crime. Using the predicted industrial structure to instrument unemployment, we show that this effect is causal for burglaries, thefts, and drug offenses. To combat crime, it appears thus that all strategies designed to combat youth unemployment should be examined. (JEL: J19, K42, J64, J65)     

Accelerated life test planning with independent lognormal competing risks

In accelerated life testing (ALT), products are exposed to stress levels higher than those at normal use in order to obtain information in a timely manner. Past work on planning ALT is predominantly on a single cause of failure. This article presents methods for planning ALT in the presence of k competing risks. Expressions for computing the Fisher information matrix are presented when risks are independently distributed lognormal. Optimal test plans are obtained under criteria that are based on determinants and maximum likelihood estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated on ALT of motor insulation.