Demarcating forest, containing disease: land and HIV/AIDS in southern Zambia

The ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic in southern Africa continues to manifest itself in unexpected ways. While the consequences of the disease appear straightforward in some aspects—e.g., medical, labor, cost—in other respects the repercussions, while large, are nonetheless highly nuanced and can be counterintuitive. This paper reports on the intersection of HIV/AIDS, migration, livelihood adaptation, land tenure, and forest conservation, to outline how adaptation to the pandemic has reworked significant aspects of land tenure to result in increased forest conservation in southern Zambia in the near to medium-term. The research uses a combination of ethnography, case studies, household survey and spatial analyses and finds that HIV/AIDS is used in customary legal settings to enhance land access. We also draw links to practical and theoretical implications of the relationship between HIV/AIDS, land tenure, and deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Invariant structures of prognosis curves in Forrester's World Dynamics

This paper deals with some results of various simulations with Forrester's World Dynamics. These simulations concern the temporal and quantitative fixing of limits in relation to initial values and deal with the effects of specific table functions in this model. In addition, they also treat the behavior of the curves in approaching the limits.     

Buying a pig in a poke: An experimental study of unconditional veto power

We study an ultimatum experiment in which the responder does not know the offer when accepting or rejecting. Unconditional veto power leads to acceptances, although proposers are significantly greedier than in standard ultimatum games, and this is anticipated by responders. We also elicit responders’ willingness to pay for (un)conditional veto power. The bids reveal a large endowment effect.     

From Divergence to Convergence: The Sex Differential in Life Expectancy in Canada, 1971–2000*

Au cows du XX^e siècle, la différence de l'espérance de vie entre les sexes dans les pays industrialisés a augmenté en faveur des femmes. On a remarqué récemment un renversement du modèle a long terme de cet écart dans certains pays. Au Canada, entre 1981 et 2000, cette différence a diminué d'environ deux ans. Une grande partie de ce phénomène sexplique par un taux de mortalité moins élevé chez les hommes que celui auquel on se serait attendu par rapport aux cardiopathies, aux cancers du poumon, aux accidents et à la violence (les suicides non compris). Le changement de la préevalence du tabagisme chez les hommes et chez les femmes est en forte corrélation avec la modification de la mortalité due aux maladies du c?ur et au cancer en fonction des sexes. Les raisons qui expliquent la diminution de la mortalité chez les hommes par suite d'accidents et de violence sont cependant moins claires et exigent des recherches plus approfondies. Over the 20th century sex differences in life expectancy in the industrialized countries have widened in favour of women. Recently, a reversal in the long‐term pattern of this differential has been noted in some countries. In Canada, between 1981 and 2000, this differential narrowed by almost two years. Greater than expected improvements in male death rates with respect to heart disease, lung cancer, accidents and violence (excluding suicide) explain a large part of this phenomenon. Change in male and female smoking prevalence correlates strongly with change in sex differences in mortality from heart disease and cancer. The reasons underlying men's greater mortality improvements in regard to accidents and violence are less clear and need further investigation.     

Book reviews

Theory and Society -     

Explorative study into support needs of caregivers in short-term foster care regarding problem behaviour and dealing with biological parents

Family supporting foster care (FSFC) is a directly accessible, short-term and preventive form of foster care for children under the age of 12. Caregivers in this type of foster care need comprehensive support to deal with their complex tasks. In this contribution, the support needs arising from the behaviour of the foster child as well as concerning dealing with the biological parents of 85 Flemish FSFC-parents are examined, as these are areas FSFC-parents specifically ask support for. These support needs are evaluated for possible links with child and foster parent characteristics. More experienced foster parents and foster parents with a foster child showing more externalising problem behaviour ask for more support in managing the child's behaviour.     

Establishing a Parenting Program for Fathers in Substance Abuse Treatment

This paper describes a systemic, trauma and attachment model for a parenting program for fathers in residential substance abuse treatment. It emphasises the complex nature of delivering parenting programs in this context and the importance of going beyond simple linear principles of reward and punishment, upon which many other parenting programs are predicated.     

Parental Influence on Friendships Between Native and Immigrant Adolescents

Parental influence on friendships between native (N = 5,683) and immigrant (N = 3,371) adolescents (aged ± 15) was investigated with the CILS4EU data of pupils in German and Dutch school classes (N = 446) and parents. The researchers examined whether parents affect friendships across group boundaries by shaping the structural opportunities to establish out‐group friends and their children's out‐group attitudes. The results show that if parents have more out‐group friends and if they consider it less important to maintain in‐group traditions, their children have more out‐group friends. Part of this relationship is mediated by children's out‐group attitudes. Some evidence is found that the opportunity structure mediates the relationship between parental characteristics and adolescent out‐group friendship.     

Evaluation of program success for programs with multiple trials in binary outcomes

A late‐stage clinical development program typically contains multiple trials. Conventionally, the program's success or failure may not be known until the completion of all trials. Nowadays, interim analyses are often used to allow evaluation for early success and/or futility for each individual study by calculating conditional power, predictive power and other indexes. It presents a good opportunity for us to estimate the probability of program success (POPS) for the entire clinical development earlier. The sponsor may abandon the program early if the estimated POPS is very low and therefore permit resource savings and reallocation to other products. We provide a method to calculate probability of success (POS) at an individual study level and also POPS for clinical programs with multiple trials in binary outcomes. Methods for calculating variation and confidence measures of POS and POPS and timing for interim analysis will be discussed and evaluated through simulations. We also illustrate our approaches on historical data retrospectively from a completed clinical program for depression. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.