Trajectories of Gambling During Adolescence

This study aimed at empirically identifying groups of adolescents with distinct longitudinal trajectories of gambling involvement and validating these groups by comparing them with respect to correlates. 903 low SES boys were followed annually from age 11 to 16 years. Three groups were found: an early-onset high-level chronic group, a late-onset high-level group, and a low gambler group. The Chronic group and the Low group consistently differed on teacher-rated inhibition (i.e., anxiety) during childhood and early adolescence. They also differed on concurrent teacher and self ratings of disinhibition (i.e., impulsivity), while the Late Onset group appeared to lie in between these groups. Compared to the Low group, both high groups subsequently had elevated scores on later gambling related problems.     

Inferences concerning interpersonal choices given anonymously

It may be difficult or impossible to make a reliable empirical investigation of an unknown network of interpersonal choices or contacts if these are in some respect sensitive for the individuals involved. We consider how choice data given anonymously can be used to reveal various features of the network. Using tools from statistical decision theory and information theory we can determine risks and capacities of disclosing choice data, the graph structure of choice data and its numbers of loops and mutuals. We give some general results, illustrate the combinatorial complexity of the problem and comment upon the computational difficulties.     

Social indicators of perceived life quality

Modern societies in both developing and developed countries have real and legitimate concerns about the enhancement, maintenance, and redistribution of individual well-being. Indicators of perceived well-being provide direct measures of what societies are trying to achieve, permit cross-sector comparisons, can indicate the adequacy of coverage of ‘objective’ indicators, and can contribute to social policy making. in both the long and short run. Some commentators, however, have suggested perceptual indicators suffer from methodological weaknesses associated with their validity, interpretability, completeness, and utility. Each of these possible weaknesses is addressed in some detail. New research evidence and certain philosophical perspectives are presented, and it is concluded that none of these presumed weaknesses is sufficient to invalidate the development and use of perceptual indicators. Suggestions are made concerning methodological research needed to support the development of indicators of perceived well-being. It is noted that the materials and results developed in the author's research on Americans' perceptions of life quality may be useful for suggesting approaches to the development of indicators of perceived life quality relevant to other cultures.     

Influence of Safety Measures on the Risks of Transporting Dangerous Goods Through Road Tunnels

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of "native safety measures." In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important "nonnative safety measures" of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.     

The Incremental Group Testing Model for Gap Closing in Sequencing Long Molecules

In this paper, we propose the incremental group testing model for the gap closing problem, which assumes that we can tell the difference between the outcome of testing a subset S, and the outcome of testing S {x}. We also give improvements over currently best results in literature for some other models.     

Beyond enmeshment: evidence for the independence of intrusiveness and closeness-caregiving in married couples

In a 1996 article on family theory, we (Green & Werner) proposed that family enmeshment should not be equated with high cohesion and that the construct of enmeshment fails to discriminate between two distinct relationship processes: Closeness-caregiving and intrusiveness. In this study, our model of these two independent dimensions of family connectedness was tested by assessing spouses from 264 couples, using the California Inventory for Family Assessment (CIFA). The CIFA scales showed acceptable reliability. Significant interspouse validity correlations also were obtained. As predicted by our theory, factor analyses distinguished dimensions of intrusiveness (blurring of boundaries) from dimensions of closeness-caregiving (such as warmth and nurturance). On all but two factors, behaviors of only one spouse (but not of both) had interpretable loadings. That is, in most areas, the two spouses' behaviors did not load together to form meaningful factors. The latter finding suggests that family systems theory--with its central notion of reciprocally contingent behaviors between family members--may be useful in understanding only a few dimensions of spouses' behavior (such as reciprocal aggression) whereas personality-in-context theories may be better for understanding most other dimensions (such as warmth and nurturance).     

Perceived Risks from Radiation and Nuclear Testing Near Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan: A Comparison Between Physicians, Scientists, and the Public

Determining the difference in perception of risk between experts, or more educated professionals, and laypeople is important so that a potential hazard can be effectively communicated to the public. Many surveys have been conducted to better understand the difference between expert and public opinions, and often laypeople exhibit higher perceptions of risk to hazards in comparison to experts. This is especially true when health risk is due to radiation, nuclear power, and nuclear waste. This article focuses on one section of a risk perception survey given to two groups of individuals with a more specialized education (scientists and physicians) and laypeople (villagers) in the Semipalatinsk region of Kazakhstan. All of these groups live near the former Soviet nuclear test site. Originally, it was expected that the scientists and physicians would have similar perceptions of radiation risk, while the public perceptions would be higher, but this was not always the case. For example, when perceptions of risk pertain to the health impacts of nuclear testing or the dose-response nature of radiation exposure, the physicians tend to agree with the laypeople, not the scientists. The villagers are always the most risk-averse group, followed by the physicians and then the scientists. These differences are likely due to different frames of reference for each of the populations.     

General location transform of the order statistics from the exponential,pareto and weibull,with application to maximum likelihood estimation

Based one some common distribution properties of the order statistics and the transformation theory by Efron(1982), we determine unified explicit general location transformations, which map the distributions of the order statistics from the Exponential, Pareto and Weibull to a standard normal distribution. This result is used to derive analytical formulas for the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter of these distributions of order statistics. The presented exact method is applied to catastrophe earthquake life reinsurance.