SHOULD WE GET MARRIED? THE EFFECT OF PARENTS' MARRIAGE ON OUT‐OF‐WEDLOCK CHILDREN

Using a representative sample of children all born to unwed parents drawn from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study and a potential outcome approach to account for self-selection into marriage, we investigate whether marriage after childbearing has a causal effect on early child development. Comparing children with similar background characteristics and parental mate-selection patterns who differ only in terms of whether their parents marry after childbirth, we find that marriage after childbirth significantly increases a child's early cognitive performance but there is no evidence that it affects child asthma risk or behavioral outcomes.     

Social inequality of reading literacy: A longitudinal analysis with cross-sectional data of PIRLS 2001 and PISA 2000 utilizing the pair wise matching procedure

In accordance to Boudon's structural-individualistic action model, it is the aim of this paper to investigate the casual effects of individual abilities, resources of the parental home, socially selective educational transitions as well as teaching and learning conditions in schools on the development of reading literacy and its dispersion in respect of social origin. It is assumed that the socially selective transition into the secondary school tracks contributes to the general deterioration of the mean reading literacy when controlling for social origin and individual achievement. The socially selective transition from primary to secondary school contributes to the increase of social inequality of reading literacy existing already since the start of the pupils’ schooling. Since it is not possible to isolate these causes with comparative-static cross-sectional data like PIRLS or PISA empirically, we use a design of generating quasi-longitudinal data with three time references, namely reading literacy at the point of enrolment into elementary school, at the age of 9–10 years, and at the age of 15 years by the pair wise matching of “synthetic twins” with identical status criteria. The empirical analysis of the German data of PISA 2000 and PIRLS 2001 confirm the effects of the individual abilities depending on social origin, the social selectivity of transition into the secondary schools, the sorting and selection performances of the school system, the allocation of children into different learning contexts, and the schooling of both the individual development of reading competences and the social inequality of reading literacy.     

A comparative perspective on intermarriage: Explaining differences among national-origin groups in the United States

Little is known about the validity of group-level theories of ethnic intermarriage despite the fact that such theories are often invoked in explaining why certain ethnic groups are “closed,” whereas others are relatively “open.” We develop a comparative perspective by analyzing the marriage choices of 94 national-origin groups in the United States, using pooled data from the Current Population Surveys, 1994–2006, and multilevel models in which individual and contextual determinants of intermarriage are included simultaneously. Our analyses show large differences in endogamy across groups. After taking compositional effects into account, we find that both structural and cultural group-level factors have significant effects on endogamy. Cultural explanations (which focus on the role of norms and preferences) play a more important role than structural explanations (which focus on meeting and mating opportunities). Our results reinforce the common but untested interpretation of endogamy in terms of group boundaries.     

HOW MANY MORE CITES IS A $3,000 OPEN ACCESS FEE BUYING YOU? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

We analyze the effect of open access (OA) status of journal articles on citations. Using cross‐sectional and panel data from mathematics and economics, we perform negative binomial, Poisson, and generalized method of moments/instrumental variable methods regressions. We benefit from a natural experiment via hybrid OA pilot agreements. Citations to pre‐prints allow us to identify the intrinsic quality of articles prior to journal publication. Overall, our analysis suggests that there is no hybrid OA citation benefit. However, for the subpopulation of articles without OA pre‐ or post‐prints, we find positive hybrid OA effects for the full sample and each discipline separately. (JEL L17, O33, A11)     

Discrete‐time survival trees

Tree‐based methods are frequently used in studies with censored survival time. Their structure and ease of interpretability make them useful to identify prognostic factors and to predict conditional survival probabilities given an individual's covariates. The existing methods are tailor‐made to deal with a survival time variable that is measured continuously. However, survival variables measured on a discrete scale are often encountered in practice. The authors propose a new tree construction method specifically adapted to such discrete‐time survival variables. The splitting procedure can be seen as an extension, to the case of right‐censored data, of the entropy criterion for a categorical outcome. The selection of the final tree is made through a pruning algorithm combined with a bootstrap correction. The authors also present a simple way of potentially improving the predictive performance of a single tree through bagging. A simulation study shows that single trees and bagged‐trees perform well compared to a parametric model. A real data example investigating the usefulness of personality dimensions in predicting early onset of cigarette smoking is presented. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 17‐32; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Financing Children's Futures: Economic Strategies for Postsecondary Education Among Middle‐Income Families

This paper, based on three waves of qualitative data with middle‐income families outside of Philadelphia, explores how families deal with the challenge of financing postsecondary education over time. Because of economic setbacks, these families adopt a variety of financial maneuvers to support their young adult children's postsecondary educational plans. In particular, families are driven to sacrifice familial savings accounts and retirement funds, take on significant student loan burdens, and downgrade children's college plans to cheaper, often less prestigious, options. These results highlight the financial vulnerability of families in the middle of the income distribution and the complicated relationship between family economics and postsecondary educational plans for children.     

‘Ink Art’ as strategy for Hong Kong institutions

Abstract

In both their wider cultural dimensions and the institutional practices they stem from, the practices of ink art in Hong Kong manifest themselves in a variety of discourses ranging from the ‘traditionalism’ of the conservative nativists to the ‘contemporaneity’ of artists and institutions often identified as being closer to ‘Western’ culture. Even though the most influential discourse about ink art in Hong Kong has clearly been produced by official institutions, like the future museum of visual culture called M+ and the already existing Museum of Art, it has also been profoundly influenced by private associations whose influence has been far reaching. The most visible of these private associations in Hong Kong is the Ink Society, whose founding members and their affiliates and friends have played a central role in the early debate about the nature of ink art in the history of local arts. Through an analysis of a failed attempt by the Ink Society to bid for the right to manage a historical site, this paper attempts to unravel some of the ideas that support the notion of ink art in Hong Kong.     

The Future Lives of Sociology Graduates

After earning a bachelor's degree, the fate of sociology undergraduates is mysterious. We know little about how many Canadians have sociology degrees and even less about what they do after graduation. Using a variety of data sources from Statistics Canada, we paint a historical portrait of the discipline by charting how many people, and who, become sociologists. We also examine where they are employed, how much they earn, and how satisfied they are with their degrees. Our findings show that sociology graduates are competitive with other fields of study on both wages and employment, but are less satisfied with their degrees. We stress how the discipline would be wise to pay more attention to our graduates and their opportunities. Nous en savons peu sur l'avenir et le nombre de Canadiens ayant des diplômes de sociologie et encore moins ce qu'ils font après la graduation. Grâce à des données de Statistiques Canada, nous dressons un portrait historique de la discipline en montrant combien de personnes, et quel genre de personnes, deviennent sociologues. Nous examinons aussi où ils travaillent, combien ils gagnent et leur niveau de satisfaction par rapport à leurs diplômes. Nos résultats démontrent que les gradués en sociologie sont compétitifs par rapport aux autres champs d’étude en termes de salaire et de taux d'emploi, mais qu'ils sont moins satisfaits de leurs diplômes. Nous notons que la discipline aurait intérêt à porter plus d'attention sur les gradués et leurs opportunités.     

In Living Memory: The Demographic Dynamics of Event Recollection in a Stable Population*

We model a stable population that has experienced an important historical event and the declining proportion, as time passes, of the population that remembers that event. The proportion is determined by the demographic characteristics of the population, including its age distribution, the natural rate of growth, the underlying birth rate, the life table probabilities to which the population is subject, and the effects of immigration and emigration under alternative assumptions about the nature of the event. (We distinguish between “local” and “universal” events.) It is determined also by the choice of an age of awareness of children at the time the event occurred. We preface development of the model by noting examples of major events of the kind we have in mind and, after development, explore the model's sensitivity to different parameter specifications by experimental simulation. The output of each experiment is a sequence of “remembering” proportions at successive decade intervals and the corresponding mean ages of the “rememberers” in relation to the overall mean age of the population.