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At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from the Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious disease. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation. 相似文献
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Haftom T. Abebe Frans E. S. Tan Gerard J. P. Van Breukelen Jan Serroyen Martijn P. F. Berger 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(7):1811-1824
The Bayesian design approach accounts for uncertainty of the parameter values on which optimal design depends, but Bayesian designs themselves depend on the choice of a prior distribution for the parameter values. This article investigates Bayesian D-optimal designs for two-parameter logistic models, using numerical search. We show three things: (1) a prior with large variance leads to a design that remains highly efficient under other priors, (2) uniform and normal priors lead to equally efficient designs, and (3) designs with four or five equidistant equally weighted design points are highly efficient relative to the Bayesian D-optimal designs. 相似文献
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Book reviews 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
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Frans Willekens 《Revue europeenne de demographie》1994,10(1):1-42
The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination. 相似文献
59.
Dynamic Choice, Independence and Emotions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
From the viewpoint of the independence axiom of expected utility theory, an interesting empirical dynamic choice problem involves
the presence of a “global risk,” that is, a chance of losing everything whichever safe or risky option is chosen. In this
experimental study, participants have to allocate real money between a safe and a risky project. Treatment variable is the
particular decision stage at which a global risk is resolved: (i) before the investment decision; (ii) after the investment
decision, but before the resolution of the decision risk; (iii) after the resolution of the decision risk. The baseline treatment
is without global risk. Our goal is to investigate the isolation effect and the principle of timing independence under the
different timing options of the global risk. In addition, we examine the role played by anticipated and experienced emotions
in the choice problem. Main findings are a violation of the isolation effect, and support for the principle of timing independence.
Although behavior across the different global risk cases shows similarities, we observe clear differences in people’s affective
responses. This may be responsible for the conflicting results observed in earlier experiments. Dependent on the timing of
the global risk different combinations of anticipated and experienced emotions influence decision making.
相似文献
60.
Lineke B.E. van Hal Agnes Meershoek Angelique de Rijk Frans Nijhuis 《Disability & Society》2012,27(1):81-93
In western welfare states, labour participation is increasingly considered a vital aspect of taking part in society. Vocational rehabilitation programmes are intended to support people in the process of returning to work. These programmes pay much attention to the skills that clients need to develop in order to return to work. We argue, however, that vocational rehabilitation is more than the acquirement of skills, and that further attention should be paid to clients’ ‘identity work’ processes. Based on 45 life-stories, we present an analysis of the identity work expressed by people with a work disability in the Netherlands. We describe ‘separative’, ‘integrative’, and ‘pending’ processes of identity work. The presented typology can help vocational rehabilitation professionals become more sensitive to clients’ processes, and supports more inclusive vocational rehabilitation. 相似文献