The formal posterior of a standard flat prior in MANOVA is incoherent

Summary A standard improper prior for the parameters of a MANOVA model is shown to yield an inference that is incoherent in the sense of Heath and Sudderth. The proof of incoherence is based on the fact that the formal Bayes estimate, sayδ ₀ , of the covariance matrix based on the improper prior and a certain bounded loss function is uniformly inadmissible in that there is another estimatorδ _l and an ɛ>0 such that the risk functions satisfyR(δ _l ,Σ)⩽R δ ₀ ,Σ)−ε for all values of the covariance matrix Σ. The estimatorδ _I is formal Bayes for an alternative improper prior which leads to a coherent inference. Research supported by National Science Foundation grants DMS-89-22607 (for Eaton) and DMS-9123358 (for Sudderth).     

Unionization Matters: An Analysis of Post–World War II Strikes

Recent macroeconomic analyses of post–World War II US strikes conclude that union density during a given year does not affect the occurrence of strike activity during that same year, a finding attributed to the institutionalization of collective bargaining after WWII. However, this argument does not take into account two processes that may render new bargaining units more radical than established bargaining units and, hence, more likely to use strikes as a weapon against capitalists. Because macrolevel changes in union density are reflective of the organization or lack of organization of new bargaining units (Freeman and Medoff 1984), the effect of union density on strikes should still be present. However, given the average contract length of two years during this time period (Cecchetti 1987; Vroman 1989), this effect should be delayed by about two years by the presence of total no-strike pledges in most contracts (Perusek and Worcester 1995). An ARIMA time-series analysis confirms that union density has a two-year lagged effect on strike activity in the post–WWII time period, 1947–1977.     

Book reviews

Journal of Labor Research -     

Abstracts

Gerson, M. J. & Barsky, M. For the new family therapist: A glossary of terms. American Journal of Family Therapy .
Gunderson, J. G., Kerr, J. & Englund, D. W. The families of borderlines. Archives of General Psychiatry .
Mandelbaum, A. Family characteristics of patients with borderline and narcissistic disorders. Bulletin of the Menninger Clinic .
Liddle, H. H. On teaching a contextual or systemic therapy: Training content, goals and methods. American Journal of Family Therapy .
Pope, K. S., Schover, L. R. & Levenson, H. Sexual behavior between clinical supervisors and trainees: Implications for professional standards. Professional Psychology .
Robinson, B. & Thurnher, M. Taking care of aged parents: A family cycle transition. The Gerontologist .
Watzlawick, P. & Coyne, J. C. Depression following stroke: Brief, problem-focused family treatment. Family Process .     

Abstracts

Hare-Mustin, R. T. A feminist approach to family therapy.
Krasner, J.D. (Editor). Special Issue: Psychotherapy with elder and dying persons.
Orten, J. D. Organizing concepts in family therapy.
Robinson, D. O. The medical-school spouse syndrome: Grief reaction to the clinical years.
Westbrook, M. T. The reactions to child-bearing and early maternal experience of women with differing marital relationships.     

The understanding of internal control principles by pastors

Although the concept of internal control is as relevant to churches as it is to profit‐seeking organizations, many authors have indicated that churches typically have weak systems of internal control. Pastors usually serve in the position of chief professional officer of their churches, and the implementation and maintenance of an adequate system of internal control is ultimately the responsibility of management. This study is a preliminary effort to determine whether pastors understand general principles of internal control and are able to recognize strengths and weaknesses in systems of internal control. The results show that pastors have a reasonable ability to recognize strengths and weaknesses in internal control systems in churches.     

Predicting falls in older women

Falls among older people are common and their occurrence is associated with detrimental effects on physical and psychosocial functioning. However, falls are not an inevitable consequence of ageing and there is growing evidence of effective interventions to prevent them. Accurate screening methods to identify high-risk populations are important if such strategies are to be cost-efficient. Epidemiological studies have identified a diverse group of risk factors for falls of different types in a variety of settings and patient groups. These have proved useful in delineating high-risk groups and have propagated a range of risk assessment tools for falls. Without an accepted taxonomy for the reporting of trials testing these instruments, direct comparison of results has been difficult. In frail older people, 'multi factorial assessment tools' have achieved some utility in the discrimination of fallers from non-fallers, whereas performance-based 'functional mobility assessments' appear to be more suited to predicting falls in groups of more active elders. The predictive value of these measures has been hampered by the complex and dynamic interaction between attendant risk factors and their variable influence in populations of different frailty profiles. Furthermore, current indices used in the prediction of falls are built upon statistical methodologies employing logistic regression, which fail to account for the breadth and depth of these associations in populations at risk of falling. Statistical representations more consistent with the complex modelling required in the design of falls risk assessment trials, such as tree classification techniques, may provide better results in future studies that aim to generate accurate predictors of falls.     

Marginality amidst plenty: Pathways into homelessness for older Australians

In this paper, drawing on in‐depth interviews, we illustrate that despite the significant overall increase in the wealth of older Australians over the last two decades, a sizeable proportion of older Australians (65 and over) are in a vulnerable accommodation situation and many face the possibility of finding themselves homeless. This is especially so for those older Australians who are dependent on government for their income and are living in private rented accommodation. We show that the changing nature of the housing market means that often our informants were not able to find affordable, adequate and secure accommodation. The death of a spouse, rent increases and eviction are common precipitators of a slide into a situation of imminent homelessness. The restructuring of the welfare state and the virtual freeze on the building of social housing means that older private renters who face eviction often have nowhere to turn. Besides not being able to rely on the market or government, many have minimal or no family and social networks.     

Anticipating relocation: concerns about moving among NORC residents

Most older adults prefer to live at home as long as possible, requiring supports and services to help them age in place. This study examines the relocation concerns of a group of older adults in a suburban naturally-occurring retirement community (NORC). Twenty-six percent of the 324 residents interviewed expressed concern about having to move in the next few years. Residents who were worried differed from those who did not worry on a number of demographic and biopsychosocial characteristics. Overall, residents present a profile of vulnerability that calls for preemptive action to help them stay in their homes. A NORC is an ideal setting in which to provide supportive services.