How to Do Things With Texts: A Functional Account of Reading Comprehension

We offer an account of reading comprehension that we believe will help clarify some common conceptual confusions in the relevant literature, as well as contribute to existing functional accounts. We argue that defining texts qua texts as stimulus classes, on the one hand, and equating “comprehension” with behavior (covert or otherwise), on the other, are not useful conceptual moves, especially when behavioral settings go beyond basic literacy skills acquisition. We then analyze the structure of the contingencies that usually evoke talk of “comprehension” using techniques from analytic philosophy. We show how keeping the results of this analysis in mind can help avoid the conceptual bafflement that often arises, even among behavior analysts, when defining or assessing behavioral phenomena related to reading comprehension. Using two contrasting cases (legal texts and stories), we argue that what counts as comprehension depends, not peripherally but crucially, on the shared social practices of which texts are a part. Finally, we propose a new framework for classifying reader–text contingencies by combining two dimensions: openness of setting and embeddedness of reinforcement.     

Are real options more valuable in the presence of agency conflicts?

The theory on real options has extended the traditional net present value rule in order to capture the value of flexibility in investment decisions. Typically, the theory of real options does not take into account agency conflicts (between central and divisional management). In this paper, we investigate the influence of agency conflicts on real options within a LEN-type model. We extend a standard LEN model with investment activities by explicitly considering the possibility to abandon an investment project after all parties involved have received further information about the project’s development. Especially, we analyze how the option’s flexibility value is influenced by the agency conflict. Our analysis shows that the real option alters the trade-off between risk sharing and incentives that underlies the agency conflict. Thereby, situations can occur in which central (and divisional) management evaluates the abandonment option ex ante differently than ex post. Using this framework, we discuss the role of commitment and the advantages of centralization and delegation of the abandonment decision.

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non‐FMD‐free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD‐free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10^?7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst‐case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10^?5, which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.     

The irreversibility effect and agency conflicts

This paper studies the influence of agency conflicts on the irreversibility effect. Using a dynamic variant of the static Baron and Myerson (Econometrica 50(4):911–930, 1982) adverse selection model, we characterize under which circumstances the irreversibility effect arises in the presence and absence of an agency conflict. In particular, we find that in the presence of an agency conflict the irreversibility effect arises in more circumstances than in the standard first-best analysis that abstracts from agency problems.     

Public Transit Access for Disabled Persons in the United States

Disabled persons in the United States often lack usable public transit. The two most common solutions put forth are lift equipped buses on a fixed route and demand-response paratransit systems. Both of these programs have serious drawbacks in terms of service provided and costs, but a combination of them can begin to resolve the problem of public transit for disabled persons. The arguments for and against the use of lift buses and paratransit systems are analyzed. A policy recommendation is made.     

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCE SHARING IN JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING: REGRESSION MODELS AND PERCEPTUAL MEASURE

The committee or group approach is often used where considerable uncertainties have to be handled by skillful judgment. In this paper the authors investigate the subject of influence sharing in judgmental forecasting of commodity prices. They propose a conceptual framework for patterns of influence sharing in groups and for influence roles of individuals. A statistical analysis of the influence of group members on the group forecast leads to inferences about influence pattern and roles in a group.